Miffymog

there we go

Guess work puts it at 140 Tory MPs = 48% are against May at the moment So it is going close

There is a fair degree of deflation with the MP's on the television news. Originally, it seemed May was wrong to delay the vote on her deal. But it looks like she'll survive the leadership challenge and have extinguished the threat from Brexiters. The DUP are still saying they'll vote down her deal, and Labour will too. Where does this leave us?

If May wins this, the Brexiter MPs will have no choice later but to support her deal as the closest thing to leaving as possible. I think Apech has said that this is something he can accept too. For me, I would rather remain than have her deal. But, as I've just said, if the Tory Brexiters have to support it, then that is also getting less likely.

From your point of view, yes - the chances of having a hard Brexit are quickly slipping away today. And I am sorry for you here.

I am a remainer - however, I did want her deal to be voted on and was not happy when she postponed it.

This is seriously heading towards her getting her deal through. Because once this option has past, what can the Tories do if they no longer like her deal ...

hmmm - rumors currently are that she'll survive - we'll know for sure quite shortly... edit - and with the DUP supporting her (if not her deal) she could end up surviving a vote of no confidence from Labour.

It's right that she goes because of her delay to the vote, so I hope she does lose ... but I feel it's going be close. Here goes her attempt to stay.

It's still going to very close this evening - but who gets in really does determine our countries future!

The trigger has been pulled - and now things move fairly quickly. Will there then be enough votes this evening to finish the job .... And who's PM next ... ? __________ They still need to get, I think 158 more Tories to agree in a vote this evening.

Just been watching Macron's £10 billion step down on RT - The Yellow Vests keep going on about how it's not enough, it's crazy thinking about where this might go too ... how long is Macron going to last? His step down is so expensive it will push the French national debt above the 3% of GDP required by the EU, buggering up their finances too. It's strange how two leadership threatening issues are going on in both our countries.

Yep - she's pulling out the 'big guns' in her attempt to get the backstop time limited, as she reckons this would then give her deal a chance of getting through. She's been going on about how a hard Brexit could cause a banking collapse across the EU, but they're not budging. Keep hearing more and more about the 48 letters having been reached. This is only sensible. If the EU wont change their stance, but May delays another vote until the end of January on the basis that they will, this conflict just can't be allowed to drag on. But who will the Tories group round. A Norway plus candidate or a Canada plus candidate? -- Very sad about the shooter, gun man is know to the authorities as a criminal - not saying what his allegiances are yet.

More rumors Graham Brady is booked in to see May tomorrow morning ... The Tories may have decided not to play May's waiting game, but if they can't get behind one other candidate, it'll fail !!! Labour can't launch a vote of no confidence due to the DUP backing her (but not her deal). Could she end up seeing through all these challenges but still have her deal voted down? Quite possibly.

I heard this on Sky News earlier today - this is when the second vote would be held in parliament. However, I've not read or heard of it from anywhere else yet. But, her own words today were that 'We’re just at the start of the negotiations and the start of the discussions' in terms of the NI back-stop. This is the worst kind of stalling and would definitely prompt more letters to be sent into the 1922 committee.

January the bloody 21st - ridiculous!

This is definitely doing the state of my mind no good! I like certainty not chaos. But this is a good thing, it would have just been no good her dragging it out so long. But are their enough numbers for a leadership challenge or a vote of no confidence? Bercow was suggesting having a vote (!) on whether the vote should have been postponed. Not quite sure what would have happened if they win that one - does it then force a vote on the deal?

Rumors May was going to leave it until next year to have a second vote in the House on her deal ... Corbyn has called for an emergency debate on it tomorrow, back strongly by both parties. This is fair enough, she can't really be allowed to let it drag out like this. Long and short of it, tomorrow's going to be a bit more interesting.

I do agree - it does feel to me as though she's slowly taking us back in.

There's talk the vote could be delayed until January. It seems her method is just to create more tension by leaving it later and later, in the hope some rebels will back down. The thing is, there probably isn't quite enough negative momentum to take her down until she's actually come back from the EU with her new amendments, whatever they may be. DAMN. She's now just trying to cling on for her own sake ..

Well, Macron is making his grovelling address to the nation tonight, it may well be worth watching on that French News channel you put links up to earlier. Just to get it off my chest, there was one time when Macron did wind me up a little bit. There was a time I think earlier on in the year when I think a French police man died stopping a machete wielding maniac. He was held up as a hero and almost a state funeral was held for him. For the first 15 minutes of the funeral, the coffin was laid out in a court yard with with a guard of honor along the side of the courtyard, but with the short man stood, by himself, just looking deep and meaningful at the coffin. He insisted on staying there by himself looking full of his own self importance for what seemed ages. It became all about Macron showing off his respect for the police man, rather than the police man himself. Any way, I have to admit I know little about his policies, but there is a skill to being a major politician with out pissing off too many of the people. And, unfortunately, he has failed in that regard.

Well, I voted leave and I am now a remainer. If May had have approached the negotiations in a different way, would I still be leave? I don't know. But some of the comments coming out at the moment are quite interesting, namely, which ever way this goes, there will be discussions about it for years, as the nation is returning to the days of the Civil war and is becoming well and truly divided. If the referendum is overturned, even if it's due to a second one, voters will leave both parties and could well migrate towards a new, single issue party. But, when people are drawn around just one issue, there tends to be too much disagreement on all the other issues a political party has to deal with. A Pandora's box has been opened, and there's no easy way to shut it. Again Chang may well be right - the only way on is to sit back and enjoy the laughs ...

ME TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My general good equanimity just goes out the window in the face of all this. The EU wont change the legal aspect of the deal. She should have had the vote and then dealt with the out come. Both parties and starting to get the knives out now...

Damn - I thought she'd just go through with it just to get to the 'other side'. But this does kind of confirm Chang's opinion that she's a bit of a drip. I try to see the best in people and liked to think that May did all that could be done with the negotiations, rather than her going at them in a weak manner. But stepping back now comes across as cowardice. Unless she can really make some changes that can make a difference, this move is showing her lose her nerve.

This link does suggest that one of the future political motions could well be along the lines of having no hard Brexit, and I feel that this will be carried. If this happens then I think remain becomes the most likely final out come. As it would leave May's deal as the only viable option to leave the EU, which will get voted down. Phillip Hammond has already said the three options are Hard Brexit, Mays' deal, or remain. Now, Rudd has started touting a Norway plus deal instead of May's, where we still allow freedom of movement and pay into the EU. The other aspect of this is that it is kind of what Corbyn wants. But, the EU are suggesting that they wont allow this. Which is slowly taking us back to another referendum. The key thing here, is that if a hard Brexit has been ruled out by parliament, then the two options on the paper will be May's deal or remain. And I can't see there being enough support for her deal ...