strawdog65 Posted January 30, 2011 Peak Oil has either already arrived or is imminent as we live and breathe. Who here believes there is inexhaustible supply of oil? Who believes that life as we know it can continue without oil? The sad fact is.... the oil is running out. Everything in this world is based on the use of oil for production. Without a suitable replacement , business will stop in it's tracks. The only reason there are now almost 8 billion people on this planet is because of the cheap energy oil has afforded us over the past 120 years. It's no accident that the world population has quadrupled in the same time frame, and without oil there will be a lot of starving, dying people all over this world when it finally runs out. I bring this as a post, because I believe it's something we all need to talk about. No one will go unaffected by this. Everyone will suffer, we are all in this together and the playing field will be completely leveled by lack of oil. So..... Tell me, do you know the truth.... or are you just like the masses living in complete denial? Comments? Let'em rip..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
strawdog65 Posted January 30, 2011 (edited) A movie called "collapse" is a must see. It is an interview with Michael Ruppert, speaking candidly about the world and peak oil. http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/50078/Collapse__part_1_/ Thanks to "TheSongsofDistantEarth" for posting about this film. It is an unflinching wake up call....Are you listening? Edited January 30, 2011 by strawdog65 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
strawdog65 Posted January 30, 2011 from: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/viewpoints/articles/0406vip-mcpherson0406.html End of the world as we know it You might feel fine, but high oil cost, scarcity mean American Empire is about to come crashing down. Guy R. McPherson University of Arizona professor Apr. 6, 2008 12:00 AM Peak oil spells the end of civilization. And, if it's not already too late, perhaps it will prevent the extinction of our species. M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1956. Production of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed "peak oil," or "Hubbert's peak," and it represents the halfway point for production. The bell-shaped curve applies at all levels, from field to country to planet. After discovery, production ramps up relatively quickly. But when the light, sweet crude on top of the field runs out, increased energy and expense are required to extract the underlying heavy, sour crude. At some point, the energy required to extract a barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in barrel of oil, so the pumps shut down. advertisement Most of the world's oil pumps are about to shut down. We have sufficient supply to keep the world running for 30 years or so, at the current level of demand. But that's irrelevant because the days of inexpensive oil are behind us. And the American Empire absolutely demands cheap oil. Never mind the 3,000-mile Caesar salad to which we've become accustomed. Cheap oil forms the basis for the 12,000-mile supply chain underlying the "just-in-time" delivery of plastic toys from China. There goes next year's iPod. In 1956, Hubbert predicted the continental United States would peak in 1970. He was correct, and the 1970s gave us a small, temporary taste of the sociopolitical and economic consequences of expensive oil. We passed the world oil peak in 2005, and we've been easing down the other side by acquiring oil at the point of a gun - actually, guns are the smallest of the many weapons we're using - paying more for oil and destroying one culture after another as the high price of crude oil forces supply disruptions and power outages in Third World countries. The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude. Later this year, we fall off the oil-supply cliff, with global supply plummeting below 70 million barrels/day. Oil at merely $100 per barrel will seem like the good old days. Within a decade, we'll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps. Never mind happy motoring through the never-ending suburbs in the Valley of the Sun. In a decade, unemployment will be approaching 100 percent, inflation will be running at 1,000 percent and central heating will be a pipe dream. In short, this country will be well on its way to the post-industrial Stone Age. After all, no alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.5 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid. Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles. You can kiss goodbye groceries at the local big-box grocery store: Our entire system of food production and delivery depends on cheap oil. If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally. The death and suffering will be unimaginable. We have come to depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter and medicine. Most of us are incapable of supplying these four key elements of personal survival, so trouble lies ahead when we are forced to develop means of acquiring them that don't involve a quick trip to Wal-Mart. On the other hand, the forthcoming cessation of economic growth is truly good news for the world's species and cultures. In addition, the abrupt halt of fossil-fuel consumption may slow the warming of our planetary home, thereby preventing our extinction at our own hand. Our individual survival, and our common future, depends on our ability to quickly make other arrangements. We can view this as a personal challenge, or we can take the Hemingway out. The choice is ours. For individuals interested in making other arrangements, it's time to start acquiring myriad requisite skills. It is far too late to save civilization for 300 million Americans, much less the rest of the planet's citizens, but we can take joy in a purpose-filled, intimate life. It's time to push away from the shore, to let the winds of change catch the sails of our leaky boat. It's time to trust in ourselves, our neighbors and the Earth that sustains us all. Painful though it might be, it's time to abandon the cruise ship of empire in exchange for a lifeboat. Guy R. McPherson is a professor of conservation biology at the University of Arizona. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TaoBee Posted January 30, 2011 If Zeitgeist is too much for folks here...maybe just something that is gentler....kid friendly even. A little Wall-E to let you know that our world is heading there...all that garbage created by people with their wants, wants, wants...with how many things made of OIL??? We've hit peak oil and peak soil. We cannot continue to stick our heads in the ground and ignore whats in our face. I know...you think...what can I do? Or worse yet..why should I bother? Nothing will happen in MY generation. Fear will get you no where. Peace and Love Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joeblast Posted January 31, 2011 (edited) The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude. Later this year, we fall off the oil-supply cliff, with global supply plummeting below 70 million barrels/day. Oil at merely $100 per barrel will seem like the good old days. Within a decade, we'll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps. hail "truly good news" of collapse! Its disgusting that anyone would refer to such a preponderance of suffering as "truly good news." Instability in the world occurs, OPEC tightens the spigots and this author interprets the causative factor as there somehow isnt enough oil?, and that's the reason prices are going up? (Seriously, does that logically flow in the least??) Nobody disputes the fact that there isnt an endless glut of oil...Hubbert's prediction was totally incorrect, yet the author twists things around so that it can be interpreted as such I love the circular logic... and the PC-requisite "cessation of economic activity will be good becuz warming will be prevented" blabber... Edited January 31, 2011 by joeblast Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheSongsofDistantEarth Posted January 31, 2011 I think I need to get me a freewheelin' conference room to surf the peak oil wave ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
manitou Posted January 31, 2011 The wonderful thing about being a Taoist is that we know that things are moving along just fine - that spirit, or the void, or whatever you want to call it will evolve just the way it is supposed to. There is no cause for individual alarm - the intelligence of the Whole will see to it that needs are met, that the dross is cleared away, and that all is well. The green industries will have to spring up quickly - they will. The political situation, in lieu of the chaos in Egypt, and in particular being adjunct to the Suez Canal - who the heck knows what's going to happen there? It will go according to plan. Oil will no doubt become less relevant as global awareness toward global warming and other ecological tendencies increases in breadth and intensity. This too is part of the dynamic. We in particular are the ones who must keep their heads throughout all of this - many will be looking to the enlightened ones to show the way. I think all we have to do is trust in our own intelligence, on a global scale. It's certainly there, and we will be the subtle leaders. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joeblast Posted January 31, 2011 I'd love to try surfing sometime, it looks fun! The wave that encounters less turbulence will be able to put the energy not-lost into amplitude Oil will become less relevant when it is economically feasible and not sooner Of course, if it runs out that makes it much less relevant, right? Its all about energy density and conversion efficiency. (And of course, it cant be prohibitively expensive, otherwise that relegates the tech to 5th wheel!) Bloody pragmatism 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
devoid Posted January 31, 2011 Peak Oil has either already arrived or is imminent as we live and breathe. Who here believes there is inexhaustible supply of oil? Who believes that life as we know it can continue without oil? The sad fact is.... the oil is running out. Everything in this world is based on the use of oil for production. Without a suitable replacement , business will stop in it's tracks. The only reason there are now almost 8 billion people on this planet is because of the cheap energy oil has afforded us over the past 120 years. It's no accident that the world population has quadrupled in the same time frame, and without oil there will be a lot of starving, dying people all over this world when it finally runs out. I bring this as a post, because I believe it's something we all need to talk about. No one will go unaffected by this. Everyone will suffer, we are all in this together and the playing field will be completely leveled by lack of oil. So..... Tell me, do you know the truth.... or are you just like the masses living in complete denial? Comments? Let'em rip..... Hi strawdog65, For as long as I can remember people told me that in 20-40 years the oil will run out. Perhaps they're right this time around, but they sure weren't right when they said it 30-40 years ago and they weren't right 10-20 years ago either. New reserves are discovered constantly and the ones that would never be "economically viable" are suddenly good enough to squeeze out another bazillion barrels. This said, I think the world will be a better place when we get weened off the remains of our fossilized predecessors. Perhaps then will we start to think smart about using the yin and yang forces around us: Sunlight, darkness, The waves of the ocean rolling in and out, the winds stirring, etc. Sure, for the type of person who loves his V8 pick-up truck the world probably looks very scary without oil. For large parts of the Middle East and Africa it will be catastrophic for those currently serving the drug, for others it may well be a blessing in disguise although it will require some strategic and advance thinking - something which seems largely lacking at this stage in many places. Anyway, who knows? It will be interesting to see what the prognosis is 20-30 years from now. Maybe I'm in for a surprise, but I doubt it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enishi Posted January 31, 2011 I think some form of die-off and economic chaos in regards to peak oil is a very real possibility at this point. It doesn't mean civilization will end though, a crises can spur new technological developments faster than one can imagine. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheSongsofDistantEarth Posted January 31, 2011 I'm all in favor of population die-off, as long as it doesn't include yours truly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Birch Posted February 1, 2011 I'm all in favor of population die-off, as long as it doesn't include yours truly. I don't think you get pick-choosy on that one. Unless... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheSongsofDistantEarth Posted February 1, 2011 Ooopsssss... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sahaj Nath Posted February 1, 2011 Peak Oil has either already arrived or is imminent as we live and breathe. Who here believes there is inexhaustible supply of oil? Who believes that life as we know it can continue without oil? The sad fact is.... the oil is running out. Everything in this world is based on the use of oil for production. Without a suitable replacement , business will stop in it's tracks. The only reason there are now almost 8 billion people on this planet is because of the cheap energy oil has afforded us over the past 120 years. It's no accident that the world population has quadrupled in the same time frame, and without oil there will be a lot of starving, dying people all over this world when it finally runs out. I bring this as a post, because I believe it's something we all need to talk about. No one will go unaffected by this. Everyone will suffer, we are all in this together and the playing field will be completely leveled by lack of oil. So..... Tell me, do you know the truth.... or are you just like the masses living in complete denial? Comments? Let'em rip..... Okay, i'll bite. but only a little bit. the oil crisis is every bit as manufactured as the vehicles and machines that thrive on its by-product. it's about power. it's always been about power. and to even frame the discussion the way that you have only feeds into the elite interests that hope to keep the crisis alive. Iraqi oil has been virtually free since the Clinton era, when the US was funneling 3 million barrels a day from Iraq to Saudi Arabia and paying the Saudis a modest laundering fee because to do that kind of business with a sanctioned country (Iraq at the time) was treason. and these backdoor tactics used to trickle down to US savings at the pump while other western industrialized countries paid more. but after the start of the Iraq war in 2003, it all changed. for US consumers, i mean. once the war start there was no longer a need for laundering. oil was literally up for grabs, as were high-end contracts for the rebuilding of infrastructure. literally pennies on the barrel, and for some companies, barrels on the penny! but at that same time, the price of gas here rose to over $2/gallon, and it just kept climbing. there was no crisis. but the fickle public didn't know any better and so there was little outrage. SUV's and Hummers became a trend at this exact same time period where companies were acquiring oil at the cheapest price ever, and then selling gas at the highest price ever. highest recorded profits in history. there's no energy alternative, because energy is not the problem. GREED is. there's no alternative because there's no alternative profit venture that can replace having the entire world as your customer. except maybe drugs & quality weapons. and those markets are already saturated. we're not close to running out of oil. Argentina alone has more oil than Iraq and Saudi Arabia combined. Chile has a ton as well. pretty much all of S. America is rich in oil and minerals. it's why Kissenger ok'd the overthrow of Salvador Allende in 1973 which, by the way, took place on September 11th. copper, zinc, and oil, for the Profits, NOT for the People, as Allende wanted. Latin America trumps the Middle East in terms of oil reserves. in the coming years this will be re-revealed as a new "discovery". and we'll all breathe a sigh of relief and say it's buying us some time to deal with our dependency. but it won't be true, just as it's not true now. but if we all believe its true, then those companies get to charge $10/gallon for such a rare and precious commodity. it's a big theater, and it always has been. the crisis will be kept alive for as long as possible, in order drain as much money as possible from the market. PERIOD. alternative energy sources have been around since Ford. you could probably even find some perpetual motion engines or water fueled engines on youtube. i don't even want to bother looking, cuz it's kind of a no-brainer. THAT'S NOT THE PROBLEM. there is money to be made and power to be gained in the oil business, and especially in the looming "peak oil" threat. is it a wonder then that out of the world's top 100 economies over 50% of them aren't even countries. they're corporations. businesses have amassed more power than governments, and myths like the peak oil crisis benefit them. hm... i wonder where the research comes from? could it be firms owned by the same companies that benefit from their findings? naw. our government wouldn't allow that. that would be wrong. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joeblast Posted February 1, 2011 hm... i wonder where the research comes from? could it be firms owned by the same companies that benefit from their findings? naw. our government wouldn't allow that. that would be wrong. its more believable that they dont have *that* much of a clue of how much is really there, rough guess at best is how its always looked to me...but, realistically, anybody with a hot commodity isnt going to say "hey, I've got a ton of this stuff" and sell as much as possible, especially when there's a market...that unfortunately has a group of people that want to generally decide how much they want to let people have. its why the US is still sitting on a lot of its resources, because the value is generally increasing at a handsome rate. the middle east will be better off when they do run out of oil - then their citizens (e.g. saudi arabia) will actually have to work for a living instead of sitting around all day playing "what would muhammed do." idle hands, and all that. another reason I'm against a welfare state - your time on it should be strictly limited and after that, you'd best do something with yourself. as far as SUVs go - I wouldnt think of NOT having one, if I am to have a vehicle at all. especially living here - I can make a parking space out of the side of a snow bank with my explorer if I need to, I was lucky enough to come across one with a stick Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Owledge Posted February 2, 2011 (edited) Who believes that life as we know it can continue without oil? Definite possibility. There are infinite ways to ensuring the well-being of mankind. The problem is always the degree of limitation, enacted to a great degree by those in power. Necessity breeds solutions. When things really get rough, alternatives will be forced into widespread use. And the people in power can to a great degree direct the masses into the way they want. So for example, more or less shortly before oil production finally runs out, industry will be ready for alternatives that they saw no incentive to support as long as oil still was the easier way. Business dominates so much of society, so business is what drives the change that business itself prevents other times. I think the whole Free Energy technology (zero point) can be widely introduced to the world under the same powerstructures, ensuring that it is far from actually being free, probably by empoying and enforcing rigid laws and restrictions about private energy production. But I also think that this wouldn't even be necessary. You can always choose the alternative to cover the world's energy needs with things like solar, wind and geothermal power, using as complicated, expensive and environmentally harmful means as necessary (like using huge energy storages as buffers, which would make the chemical industry very happy). So what I'm trying to say: Freedom and well-being doesn't come from technology. It comes from society. Those who consistently ignore the peak oil issue will simply be driven out by market competitors who are more than happy to take over for them with the latest sub-optimum solutions. These things are all just symptoms of the way people 'live the world'. Edited February 2, 2011 by Hardyg Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
John Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Yes, I agree. The theory is this: -Population, and therefore Demand for Oil, rises exponentially. -The only thing keeping Oil prices steady, all other things equal, is when Oil Supply rises at the exact same rate as Oil Demand. - As soon as Oil Supply begins to slow down, prices will skyrocket. Supply has been growing at an accelerated rate. In fact, Supply can still grow, just at a decelerated rate, and prices will still skyrocket. Even if this is not the case, Oil will run out, or become VERY scarce, within the next 50 years, COMPLETELY changing Civilization as we know it... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Owledge Posted February 3, 2011 Even if this is not the case, Oil will run out, or become VERY scarce, within the next 50 years, COMPLETELY changing Civilization as we know it... However one understands "complete change of civilization". When did civilization ever change completely? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Listener Posted February 3, 2011 Peak oil sounds very realistic to me, but I've also heard it's a scam. Without question though precious resources are used extremely inefficiently. It's a similar issue with global warming. While I believe the idea of man made global warming is a scam, there is tremendous pollution and environmental degradation. Resource depletion, environmental destruction, and now unprecedented economic collapse will be the end of this civilization. I hope what replaces it will be better, but I don't know. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
strawdog65 Posted February 5, 2011 Hello everyone! All great and interesting responses! so just like anything else there are still those that believe that the peak oil theory/prediction is nothing more than a scam for world domination. Hard to argue with that idea. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TheSongsofDistantEarth Posted February 5, 2011 (edited) Peak oil sounds very realistic to me, but I've also heard it's a scam. Without question though precious resources are used extremely inefficiently. It's a similar issue with global warming. While I believe the idea of man made global warming is a scam, there is tremendous pollution and environmental degradation. Resource depletion, environmental destruction, and now unprecedented economic collapse will be the end of this civilization. I hope what replaces it will be better, but I don't know. Why are these ideas a "scam"? It is a logical fallacy to simply conclude that if some people are trying to make money based on idea, that it follows that the idea is therefore false. Aren't the stakes too high not to take these seriously? Or is it too comfortable to consider them a "scam" and go back to sleep? Edited February 5, 2011 by TheSongsofDistantEarth 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
surfingbudda Posted February 5, 2011 A movie called "collapse" is a must see. It is an interview with Michael Ruppert, speaking candidly about the world and peak oil. http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/50078/Collapse__part_1_/ Thanks to "TheSongsofDistantEarth" for posting about this film. It is an unflinching wake up call....Are you listening? Thank you Strawdog! Definitely the most powerful film I have seen in a while, I actually just emailed the link to my family to watch. I have been thinking similarly to Michael Ruppert recently, but it is nice to see all the factual information on one plate. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Owledge Posted February 5, 2011 Why are these ideas a "scam"? It is a logical fallacy to simply conclude that if some people are trying to make money based on idea, that it follows that the idea is therefore false. Aren't the stakes too high not to take these seriously? Or is it too comfortable to consider them a "scam" and go back to sleep? Where do you see it in Listener's posting that he simply thinks that because people are making money off the idea? It is a convenient and thus often-used approach to shape opposing views in your own way and then argue against those constructs of yours instead of what people actually say or don't say. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
strawdog65 Posted February 5, 2011 Why are these ideas a "scam"? It is a logical fallacy to simply conclude that if some people are trying to make money based on idea, that it follows that the idea is therefore false. Aren't the stakes too high not to take these seriously? Or is it too comfortable to consider them a "scam" and go back to sleep? This is in essence how I feel. Why are people so fast asleep? Why is it so terrifying to look at the reality of the world situation? Most people are asleep. The unfortunate truth is anything that is an inconvenience to the established norm of any ones life is to be regarded as being a made up "fiction". The seriousness of what "peak oil" means I believe precludes giving in to fear, we collectively must push for alternative means of clean energy sources. Many people will continue to push the scam aspect of what they see as a purely contrived situation, it is their right to believe what they will, but it is also our right to as being aware of the situation, to attempt to wake the masses from their imposed slumber and seek change. Peace Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
