"We have to reorganize civilization pretty drastically"

[JustARandomPanda]

Hell I'd point to Kuntsler in the very same context - some wacko saying whacked out shit and he has no frickin clue what the downstream results of stuff like that is - either that, or he's simply an evil bastard that wants tens of millions to suffer if not die from a "drastic reorganization." How is that any different than an islamo-fundie chanting death to america?

 

Meh. Kunstler is talking in the realm of ideas. It's the mind talking from the angle of a Philosopher and that's the article's purpose. It's interesting but as I've grown older and I guess more 'hands-on' I've grown more interested in how things are approached from the angle of the Engineer. That's were I wish guys like Kunstler would follow up such essays with a series of essays on HOW TO initiate a "drastic reorganization". Then you'd get to see exactly how "drastic" and far reaching his proposals might be on the current N. American population. Maybe they would be drastic. Maybe they'd be fairly inconsequential for all the sturm-n-drang of the article. When one speaks primarily from the angle of the Philosopher one doesn't know. That's why we'd need to examine the Blue Print.

 

Once Kunstler starts releasing Blue Print articles from the angle of the Engineer as opposed to that of Philosopher he'll actually be taking steps toward doing something to get his readers bringing about the changes he says need to take place. I don't think it would lead to catastrophe for the simple reason he doesn't have that powerful influence on diverse segments of society. In fact...that's what his article is all about - a lament of such.

 

Much maligned though Karl Marx is these days at least das Kapital was not only part Philosophical Overview but also part Engineer Blue Print.

 

It's FAR more rare on both the Right *and* the Left to find popular commentators step up to the plate and release Blue Prints as opposed to Overviews (Arch Druid does some). But those are the people I'm most interested in reading from.

 

Damn shame such commentators are so few and far between.

[joeblast]

whatchu smokin'?

I admit, an accountable implementer of governmental functions would be quite a crazy notion

[Encephalon]

Meh. Kunstler is talking in the realm of ideas. It's the mind talking from the angle of a Philosopher and that's the article's purpose. It's interesting but as I've grown older and I guess more 'hands-on' I've grown more interested in how things are approached from the angle of the Engineer. That's were I wish guys like Kunstler would follow up such essays with a series of essays on HOW TO initiate a "drastic reorganization". Then you'd get to see exactly how "drastic" and far reaching his proposals might be on the current N. American population. Maybe they would be drastic. Maybe they'd be fairly inconsequential for all the sturm-n-drang of the article. When one speaks primarily from the angle of the Philosopher one doesn't know. That's why we'd need to examine the Blue Print.

 

Kunstler's "The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century" goes in that direction. It's a detailed forecast of what would happen to the different sections of North America in the event of catastrophic disruptions in resource flows, i.e., no more cheap oil.

 

Once Kunstler starts releasing Blue Print articles from the angle of the Engineer as opposed to that of Philosopher he'll actually be taking steps toward doing something to get his readers bringing about the changes he says need to take place. I don't think it would lead to catastrophe for the simple reason he doesn't have that powerful influence on diverse segments of society. In fact...that's what his article is all about - a lament of such.

 

Kunstler has been intimately involved with the work of the New Urbanism, the Post-Carbon Institute, and a constant presence in the field of academic geography and urban planning for decades. His strength is in detailing how we managed to get into the clusterfuck we're in, not necessarily designing detailed descriptions of how to get out of it, because let's face it, the vast majority still don't know where we came from, how we got here, or what the problem truly is, much less how to rectify it.

 

For the few who "get it," those who understand the implications of a very plausible disruption of energy flows into our highly energy-dependent consumer culture, Kunstler has been addressing the same prescription that's being articulated by dozens of activist/theorists – prepare to organize culture on smaller scales; smaller farms, smaller homes, smaller financial networks, smaller communities, small enough to facilitate real cooperation.

 

If such a blue print really existed, about 50 million Americans would jump at the opportunity and ask, Where do I sign? The great unwashed masses would remain utterly indifferent or clueless, while the paleoconservatives like JoeBlast and the rest of the crowd profiled in Kunstler's last essay, will continue to believe that suburban consumerism and "pro-growth" jingoism is the natural order of things and will return to America once the liberals are kicked out of office and we bomb the Middle East into submission and take Our Oil.

 

 

Much maligned though Karl Marx is these days at least das Kapital was not only part Philosophical Overview but also part Engineer Blue Print.

 

It's FAR more rare on both the Right *and* the Left to find popular commentators step up to the plate and release Blue Prints as opposed to Overviews (Arch Druid does some). But those are the people I'm most interested in reading from.

 

You're not going to see people from the Right offering any viable solutions to the problems of perpetual consumer capitalism because they don't perceive that as a problem in need of a solution. Let's be clear; the only thing that separates modern American liberals from modern conservatives is a magic spigot of unexhaustible oil, undepletable topsoil, carbon-free emissions, and an extra continent or two.

[ralis]

edit

Edited February 23, 2012 by ralis

[JustARandomPanda]

Kunstler's "The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century" goes in that direction. It's a detailed forecast of what would happen to the different sections of North America in the event of catastrophic disruptions in resource flows, i.e., no more cheap oil.

 

Have requested The Long Emergency from the library.

 

 

 

Kunstler has been intimately involved with the work of the New Urbanism, the Post-Carbon Institute, and a constant presence in the field of academic geography and urban planning for decades. His strength is in detailing how we managed to get into the clusterfuck we're in, not necessarily designing detailed descriptions of how to get out of it, because let's face it, the vast majority still don't know where we came from, how we got here, or what the problem truly is, much less how to rectify it.

 

For the few who "get it," those who understand the implications of a very plausible disruption of energy flows into our highly energy-dependent consumer culture, Kunstler has been addressing the same prescription that's being articulated by dozens of activist/theorists – prepare to organize culture on smaller scales; smaller farms, smaller homes, smaller financial networks, smaller communities, small enough to facilitate real cooperation.

 

 

Finally took a look at the website. Now I realize who Kunstler is! He's way more hardcore than Arch Druid ever dreamed of being!

 

And yeah...he's got Blue Prints alright. I spoke out of ignorance before reading up on this guy. Definitely an error on my part.

 

Kunstler's take is that the ever-increasing-speed-of-dwindling oil will instigate precisely the kind of social anarchy, lawlessness and catastrophe that Joeblast says "drastic reorg solutions" brings about. In fact, his fiction novel A World Made by Hand is the Post-Oil equivalent of Alas, Babylon.

 

 

Considering Kunstler's hardcore position then when he says "drastic" he actually means it. From what I can tell Kunstler says we (or at least the clued-in) voluntarily change our lives (that is, revert to non-petroleum lifestyles - ie: live like the Amish or our pioneer ancestors) or dwindling petroleum and financial collapse will DO IT FOR US. The choice is ours. That's Kunstler's message from what I can tell. We revert to pioneer days lifestyles or a future of winnowing out the winners (those who switched to Amish-living prior to oil's collapse) and losers will do it for us - and we don't have more than 50-100 years at best (if that even) before the brutal winnowing begins.

 

I haven't read his books but I will now.

 

I wonder if he thinks old-time printing presses (maybe even manual typewriters for the lucky few who have the resources and know-how to make their own paper) will come back into vogue? Books will be precious and and very expensive, learning via recitation instead of writing (since paper will also be rare and expensive) will come back into vogue (or I suppose kids / adults could use portable chalkboards again like pioneer-era kids did). Communication via phones, internet, etc - not at all (takes petrol to run those things since that's what the infrastructure needs to make them and to stay maintained). Refrigeration for food storage will be a thing of the past. Scientific and engineering research of all kinds will be drastically curtailed. All that stuff requires modern petroleum to support it.

 

But yeah...from what I gather he's saying most or all need to 'go Amish' NOW or the coming-collapse-despite-the-naysayers will force it on us anyway. It's inevitable and the fewer who heed his message - the faster, deeper and more tragic the collapse will be.

 

 

I have no idea if the way he is interpreting current research is correct or not.

 

 

Certainly modern medicine - both good and bad will be effected. If Kunstler's visions come true we can say goodbye to anesthetics (takes high tech to make and store them). We can say goodbye to birth control including condoms since it takes petrol to make them (hello rampant STD proliferation and a surge of surprise babies born to young teens-to-20-somethings). My guess is that since the modern medical system will collapse there will be an increase in infanticide and child abandonment - just like in the old days.

 

 

If such a blue print really existed, about 50 million Americans would jump at the opportunity and ask, Where do I sign? The great unwashed masses would remain utterly indifferent or clueless, while the paleoconservatives like JoeBlast and the rest of the crowd profiled in Kunstler's last essay, will continue to believe that suburban consumerism and "pro-growth" jingoism is the natural order of things and will return to America once the liberals are kicked out of office and we bomb the Middle East into submission and take Our Oil.

 

 

Takes capital to 'sign up' in the first place. Some people do not have this option.

 

 

 

 

 

 

but as far as the problems other cities than upstate NY will experience for water scarcity, distribution and purification - well...I'd already researched it and DIY-ers should check out the following:

 

 

Water Storage: Tanks, Cisterns, Aquifers, and Ponds for Domestic Supply, Fire and Emergency Use--Includes How to Make Ferrocement Water Tanks

[JustARandomPanda]

Here's opposing reviews of Kunstler's fiction novel, A World Made by Hand

 

Looks like I'm going to have to check it out. Hope it'll be as good as Alas, Babylon was.

 

 

1st 5 Star Reviewer

 

 

It's really good. Surprisingly so, given that most attempts at novelisation by people who are basically pundits on an educational/propaganda mission to save the world are dismal artistic failures. But this novel is good, the guy can actually write.

 

It's a realistic depiction of the post-collapse USA. What collapse, you ask? Not exactly specifically told, but somehow related to Peak Oil, financial ruination, that kind of stuff. He depicts the after-shocks on the ground, rubber-meets-pavement (or I should say, hooves-meet-pavement, I guess).

 

The world has shrunk into an uneasy Darwinian jostling, local warlordism and gangsterish Machiavellian counterpunching among various ugly power cells, with a bunch of religion leavening the stink, er ... the stew. One civil gentleman tries to hold onto some kind of rational center.

 

Here's a powerful message from this book (so don't say nobody clued you in time) - Learn a practical trade, something useful, essential to daily life, that requires neither electric power nor high-tech tools or materials. Butcher, baker, candle-stick maker.

 

Few Interesting Points:

 

1. Speech style: Everybody's speech pattern has reverted to an oddly folksy kind of 19th century, Mark-Twain-ish patois.

 

2. Ism's: Not the slightest hint of feminism has survived The Fall. Women are pretty much seen but not heard. And homosexuality seems to perhaps have been swept away by the dreaded plague of "Mexican Flu" maybe? African-American's don't exist in upstate New York, but racial trouble festers elsewhere across the country.

 

3. Infrastructure: Town in upstate New York benefits very heavily from left-over 19th century infrastructure, most very especially the robustly designed and constructed gravity-fed water ducts. Rest of the country will not have this legacy! *bite nails*

 

4. Give thanks for (current) hot showers, razors, modern dentistry. No mention is made of the deodorant situation.

 

Although presented as a disaster scenario, I feel the author secretly has quite a hard-on for the mid 19th century.

 

Kunstler's depiction of collapsed upper NY state reminds me more than anything of Ishikawa Eisuke's great (Japanese language) novel '2050 Nen ha: Edo Jidai' (Year 2050: Return to the Edo Period), which also gives a local-eye view of a post-collapse, formerly high-tech society. These two novels are very similar, but Kunstler probably didn't model on Ishikawa's earlier work as that is not available in English.

 

I've read hundreds of apocalypse / post-collapse books, 'The Postman' type of stuff. Some of them, such as Luke Rhinehart's 'Long Voyage Back' or Jean Hegland's 'Into the Forest', are better written, real literature. And some have wilder gripping action, obviously 'Lucifer's Hammer' comes to mind for that. But for poignant realism, to a reader living exactly where and how we are right now, 'World Made By Hand' strikes closest to the heart.

 

More than anything, this book is sad. It will make you sad. It's a cliche to say that we take everything for granted. We do, but you need that truth rubbed in your face sometimes to revitalize it. This book really does that.

 

But if you really want to put yourself through an emotional coffee-grinder in the opposite direction, stomp yourself in the gut by reading "The Road" (Cormac McCarthy) immediately prior to "World by Hand". Then you'll feel that Kuntstler's "World", where at least the grass still grows and the rivers still flow, is for all its horrors, a beautiful Elysian Field, direct from the hand of whatever Lord you care to name.

 

2nd 5 Star Reviewer:

 

James Howard Kunstler is as important a public intellectual as we have today. This work gives him an opportunity to imagine in fictional terms what life may be like during the permanent crisis he believes inevitable. It is every bit as gripping as the "Living in the Long Emergency" chapter from his previous book, but as a story the novel embodies a genuine narrative momentum unavailable to the essayist. Mr. Kunstler portrays skillfully the community of Union Grove, drawing on his own extensive knowledge of Washington County, New York. He introduces very early in the text a conflict between town citizens and Wayne Karp, a former trucker who runs the disreputable salvaging operation from the dump beyond the edge of Union Grove. This is amongst the narrative's widest arcs, resolved only at the novel's end. The secondary conflict is between wealthy landowner Stephen Bullock and Dan Curry, the corrupt merchant who controls business in Albany, and it broadens effectively the range of Mr. Kunstler's social criticism.

 

But the story, itself, really belongs to the first-person narrator, Robert Earle, a former software executive who moved from suburban Boston to Union Grove after a West Coast terrorist attack closed all ports and thus choked the American economy. His family is splintered by the long emergency: wife Sandy and daughter Genna have died without antibiotics and state-of-the-art medical care; son Daniel has left home to see what is left of America beyond upstate New York. Fortunately, Robert has carpentry skills and more than a little residual ambition, awakened by the arrival of the "New Faith" religious sect that uses the abandoned high school in town as its new headquarters. There is delicious tension between these strident evangelicals and the passive congregationalists that make up the faithful in Union Grove. Until the arrival of Brother Jobe and his crew from the South, religion seems little more than a surrogate for collapsed state and city governments. But even the fire-and-brimstone of the New Faith is tempered with civic practicality and the no-nonsense might of former soldiers who assert themselves in their new surroundings. As if to balance the ambitions of the newcomers, the livyers of Union Grove shake off the lethargy that befell them after their initial accommodation to crisis. Mr. Kunstler here recognizes that ideological conflict should give rise to compromise and innovation in healthy societies, in contrast to the political schisms that have arrested our progress today. In a world made by hand, community is more important than anything else, and it is true that individuals thrive in Union Grove based on their ability and willingness to collaborate with their neighbors. There are long passages describing the bounties of an earth relieved of much of its industrial burden. Mr. Kunstler takes great pleasure in describing food and drink, the acoustic music that defines what little leisure time is available to a people drawn back into agrarian living.

 

There are many clever touches throughout. Intermittent flashes of electricity animate old radios long enough to broadcast exhortations from hysterical preachers. There is no press, though references to broadsheets brought by traders suggest the American federal government, having fallen apart after various attempts at martial law, has been unable to reassert itself. The two-day odyssey to Albany, accomplished in less than an hour today by car, employs the "road trip" to show the suffering of outliers and the dishonesty of commerce that tries to proceed as if globalization is soon coming back. There is no rubber for tires or footwear, no refrigeration, no proper anesthetic. One cannot read this novel without appreciating how fragile life will be without the essentials whose existence we have smothered underneath our luxuries, and, yet, this remains a remarkably optimistic book. Mr. Kunstler is criticized always for his gloomy writings, as he imagines for example the class riots we will suffer once the lumpen realize, once and for all, the American Dream will not be theirs. But Union Grove will not here tolerate delinquency, and in a population already thinned by the Mexican Flu epidemic, citizens who are careless about themselves and others simply do not survive.

 

I appreciate the thought that has gone into reconsidering new challenges to the family. How will gender relations change when women who may have children are no longer valued for the diversity of views they bring to the corporate world? What role is there for children in an agrarian society that offers only rudimentary schooling? What complicated living arrangements may emerge when many husbands and wives are taken, prematurely, from partners who expected the ease of divorce, and not the onset of epidemic, to be the biggest challenge to their marriages? Similarly, the plantation run by Stephen Bullock and the compound constructed by the New Faith sect suggest old ways of organizing ourselves that may be reasserted. The former offers limited hydroelectricity if one only embraces a feudal model; the latter is built around a mystical seer who suggests that unexplained wonders still pulse beneath the din of our iPods.

 

I think I expected to read how our world fell apart when I picked up this novel. Mr. Kunstler must provide some explanations, of course, and so his characters are permitted a limited amount of reminiscing, though readers are reminded constantly that nostalgia is deadly in a world made by hand. Similarly, young Sarah Watling is introduced as a character to whom Robert is obliged to explain something of how they got where they presently find themselves. But if you want to know what Union Grove had to survive, you can always read Mr. Kunstler's non-fiction. You are not very far into this book before you start wondering what happens when winter comes, and the problem is no longer the humidity but the cold, itself. A gravity-based water system allows something like modern plumbing: what happens when it freezes? I am not puzzled by what happened as much as I am eager to imagine what happens next. If this is truly a world made by hand, it is one made most vividly by the labors of an accomplished and confident author.

 

 

 

and now:

 

1st 1 Star Reviewer

 

 

I read a lot of post-apocalyptic books. I've always enjoyed being freaked out and scared almost to death by thoughts of the end of the world since I grew up loving films like Blade Runner and The Road Warrior. I've had a renewed interest in reading these books since everything in the world has been unraveling in the past few years (Hollywood has picked up on it too - there are no less that 3 major films coming out in the next 6 months in the post-apocalyptic genre, The Road, 9 and The Book of Eli)and there have been more new books in the genre lately.

 

World Made by Hand isn't poorly written. That's not quite accurate - the dialogue is poor. The plotting is terrible. The pacing is nonexistent. Yet I read the sample chapter and thought it might be interesting since it was working this whole religious, Amish thing and I hadn't seen that done too often in the genre. It was different so I gave it a chance.

 

You take a gamble and sometimes you lose.

 

In Kunstler's near future there have been bombs dropped on LA and Washington that have to do vaguely with a Holy War somewhere else (it is never clear where). There is never any discussion about life outside the US and why no one has helped the US in recovery or what happened to the military and only a passing reference to the government being wiped out in Washington but now set up in Nashville or Minneapolis (but no one knows anything and they don't care - the only thing on the radio is a screaming preacher). Since the falling apart of the US through war and the Mexican Flu, there is only rare electricity and life in upstate NY has reverted to pre-industrial American gothic. Kunstler doesn't seen to think this is a bad idea actually especially if you manage to have a peaceful little town that is filled with white men, subjugated women, no homosexuals, no African-Americans, no people with foreign sounding last names, all Christians and plenty of folks who have old-timey trade skills (how many people do you personally know right this minute who can blow glass? Weave baskets? Identify edible plants? Grow a tomato? Card wool? Light a camp fire? Find fresh water? Fish without a rod and reel? Ride a horse? Yeah, that list was very short for me too.).

 

This is some kind of whacked out middle-aged male fantasy where there are only middle-aged white men. There are no young men, the only virile one in town is killed off almost immediately and his widow; who is about 25 years younger than the main character becomes ONE of his love interests. It seems everywhere this guy goes, women want him, even though he is pushing 50.

 

We are supposed to like this guy but he has no soul. No heart. He's lost his entire family but so have most people. He sleeps with his best friend's wife and doesn't feel any moral ambiguity about it. He calls it an arrangement. He ends up shooting some poor bastard and doesn't really have any feelings on that. He starts schtupping the 22 year old widow a week after her husband is murdered in cold blood. No problem with that. He eats lots of meat and is especially entranced with hot dogs, hamburgers and big chunks of beefsteak. In a society such as this meat would be extremely rare since there is NO REFRIGERATION. Things would revert to an agrarian lifestyle.

 

Many of Kunstler's ideas and background for his world are off the mark.

 

The people have lots of parties and social events. I had a hard time envisioning this even 10 years or so after the big bombs and mass deaths from the flu. One man in town acts as a robber baron and gentleman farmer with a bunch of serfs/slaves. This seems to be ok by everyone too and this guy has it all, electricity (hydro-electric), music, a concert bandstand, plus plenty of carnival foods.

 

Yet the town has no electricity and no one seems to want it. They don't want heat in the winter or A/C in the summer? How about refrigeration? They think it is better without cars? Without law and order? Without education? Without emergency medical care? None of these issues are addressed. Kunstler makes his people Amish and they love it. Then he throws in a bunch of religious nutballs who worship a frothing at the mouth fat woman who has seizures and can possibly predict the future. Wow, ok. That ends up being totally left field and makes no sense at all but then Kunstler takes it one step further by making the religious nutball leader uh - something not human. I was totally lost at that point. Was the guy an apparition? Was he a collective hallucination? Was he a messenger of God? I don't know but he named him Job (with an e on the end) so I'm sure to the author it has some significance.

 

Women in Kunstler's world are nurses, cooks, mothers and whores. Often all at once. They don't participate in local government. They don't have anything to say. They don't read. They don't fight. The young widow sits at home and weaves baskets with her daughter, cooks wonderful meals for the main character, services him with her nubile body and knows how to catch and gut a trout (before she puts it in the smoker).She's like post-apocalyptic Martha Stewart.

 

The "evil" people in the town live in a trailer park and are rednecks which seems unlikely in upstate NY. They speak like rednecks too saying things like "gol-durn" and "got-dam". Much of the language has reverted to old-timey 19th century colloquialisms. In fact they call the old times "the old-timey times". This use of dialectic made me gnash my teeth. Kunstler probably thought he was being clever but it made for awkward reading. Plus is that very likely coming from the 21st century that people would revert to this country-speak? Ditto that all the music anyone plays in the "good" part of town are folk songs from 150 years earlier. Does anyone in this day and age even KNOW songs from that time period? In the "bad" part of town Kunstler has them play versions of Metallica songs and Nirvana's "Smells like Teen Spirit" to illustrate their evilness.

 

Kunstler seems to think that once we have no electricity, no fuel and no government we will focus on simpler pleasures and give up trying to have electricity, cars or theme restaurants and malls. I can safely say that is a total and utter crock.

 

Things in this world do not move backward - they go forward - always. If everything goes to hell in a hand-basket for this country or the world you better believe that there will be someone somewhere thinking - hey, I can make things BETTER. And they will. That is the indomitable human spirit.We pick up the pieces. We move on. We make things better.

 

Kunstler could have made this book better. Much better.

 

I wouldn't want to live in his idealized, homogenized white mans world. I'm just too much of an uppity, smartypants female full o' book learnin' who wouldn't be willing to whore herself to some bearded carpenter in exchange for "security". Anyway I wouldn't need it. I know how to use a gun as well as how to open up a can of whup-ass. In an old-timey times way of course.

 

2nd 1 Star Reviewer

 

To mix metaphors - I had great expectations and instead found a shipwreck on the island of apathy.

 

First, I will give credit where due - the protagonist is well described and I can empathize with his feelings, depression and apathy. That's basically it for the positive.

 

It's as if Kunstler did a minimal bit of research and then zero critical thinking on how a society would revert to a more primitive form of social organization once the technological foundation of that modern society was completely removed.

 

The entire premise of the story revolves around apathy - personal and societal. I find that not only abhorrent, but also unrealistic. If - or maybe it's when - our technology and oil based society fails because of lack of cheap oil and its benefits - travel - long and short distance, cheap heat, chemicals, electrical generation etc., we will find alternatives - whether it's coal derivatives, electrical or some other technology that will only be viable when oil is expensive and scarce.

 

Does this mean that society will keep up its frenetic pace of change and "progress"? Not at all. Especially if one adds into the mix terrorists with nukes and rampant epidemics that destabilize world society and kill hundreds of millions, if not billions. Society will most likely have to revert to an earlier era where technology is much simpler and supportable for those needs that are "Made by Hand". But that does not mean that some semblance of `modern' technology won't remain and be maintained as viable - steam trains is but one example.

 

Another example - Kunstler has most (an implied ~99%) of the cars recycled for their steel. Ok, not a bad idea if there isn't any gasoline from foreign oil fields being imported any longer. But... it's fairly simple to convert a gas engine to run on alcohol or even "wood gas" (Google that and you'll be amazed). So there'll be some sort of short range transportation made possible by individuals with an engineering proclivity. Will this sort of thing be wide spread like today's trucks and autos? Not likely nor practical. But it will exist in some form. Why? My answer is human nature. Find the unknown and unworkable and make it work.

 

Another glaring hole in my opinion is the fact the Kunstler allows the electricity to come on at random intervals and for short random times. If trains, planes and automobiles are non-functioning and non-existent, then where the heck are the electrical generators in this grand scheme? If society can't make a wood fired steam train work, how can a complex power grid be maintained? If apathy is the watchword of the decade, then who the heck is climbing the power poles to connect the power lines? Furthermore, if most of the trucks and autos have been recycled for their metal content, why haven't the power lines been recycled for their copper and aluminum content? I can't willingly suspend my disbelief to cover that large and glaring of a gap.

 

Guns. Though never specified, it's implied that this story takes place 10 to 15 years after a `crash' where the whole world just stops functioning. Given the number of guns in America in 2008, given the rural setting depicted in the story, the near absence and rarity of guns is one more point where it appears that Kunstler has discarded critical thinking. Even though the population has been devastated by virulent disease, gun violence seems out of the norm and relatively rare. Rare enough to shock the protagonist when it appears early in the narrative. I'd posit that regardless of the number of people that succumbed to the uncontrolled diseases, gangs of thugs would have been, or are still, ravaging the country far and wide, scrounging for food, more guns and women to rape. Survivors would have had to deal with these gangs of thugs time and again - or be killed by them. I would suggest that violence would remain distasteful to thinking and feeling humans, but it would not be as shocking as Kunstler has portrayed it.

 

I could detail a half-dozen other oversights or outright goofs, but suffice to say that this was not an enjoyable post-apocalyptic story. Way too many gaps of logic to be remotely probable. And for my money that's what makes these sorts of tales enjoyable or not. And this one was not either probable or enjoyable.

[Encephalon]

There's no genre I enjoy more than good 'ol post-apocalyptic dystopias, so I was a little disappointed with "World Made by Hand." Kunstler has had a prolific career as a writer, and I think he got cocky and wrote this thing too fast.

 

His "Geography of Nowhere" is required reading in geography, urban planning, ecology, and sustainability studies across the country. It would seem that several Bums suffer from a fairly significant dearth of ecological literacy, something I would have never suspected in a website inhabitated by self-identified Taoists, but oh well. GoN tells the tale of how and why America chose to construct its cities and transportation grids as if humans, nature, and energy didn't matter. Read this and discover why imbuing the planet with permanence is as illusory error as reifing the "self."

 

You're in for a treat, Serene, with The Long Emergency.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyEGnMa9MyM&feature=related

[JustARandomPanda]

E, is it true as I've read on Amazon that this book has no notes in the back so one can track down the research (I presume) to back up the author's claims?

 

 

I have a habit of reading the 1 Star Reviews at Amazon first just to see if any critical thinkers might be able to spot weaknesses in a book's topic.

 

Here's two I found that had me scratchin' my noggin in wonder.

 

Peak Oil Is Real, But This Book is a Bigoted Rant

 

 

I very much wanted to like this book. I greatly enjoyed Kunstler's earlier works (The Geography of Nowhere and Home from Nowhere), and I am deeply involved in local activism to make my local community less dependent on oil. I have read a great deal about Peak Oil and have no doubt that it is real and will soon be the greatest issue facing America and the world.

 

That said, I hated this book. Hated it. Hated, hated, hated, HATED it. Kunstler displays a suffocating sense of superiority over everyone else (including the reader) and a total intolerance to any view other than his own. In his world, there is no god but the Long Emergency, and Kunstler is its prophet.

 

He explains the basic of Peak Oil well enough (although a much more thorough presentation can be found in Richard Heinberg's books). He then goes off on a rant about geopolitics in the Middle East, a lot of which is simply wrong, and the rest being already well-known to anyone who reads the newspaper. He has no real idea what's he talking about here, but gives the impression that he believes his words to be true simply because they are HIS words.

 

Kunstler then describes various forms of alternative energy which others say could help alleviate the problems Peak Oil will bring. He dismisses every single one of them, as if with the wave of a hand. Many of these proposed solutions are simply straw men that Kunstler sets up in order to shoot down. Many of the most innovative ideas to help deal with Peak Oil- the ones Kunstler would have a harder time debunking- are not even mentioned. Rather than rationally explore all the options, Kunstler begins with the assumption that nothing can possibly work and then seeks only the evidence to support his own point of view.

 

The final chapter deals with "Living in the Long Emergency" and is simply a manifestation of Kunstler's dystopian dream world. He describes America degenerating into a self-made hell, and he seems to delight in describing how horrible every place will be. The Southwest will be overrun by Mexican invaders, Asian pirates will devastate the Pacific Coast, fundamentalist Christians will transform the South into a theocracy, and everywhere there will be starvation, disease and total societal collapse (with the single exception, oddly enough, his own neck of the woods in upstate New York, which apparently will be fine). In particular, he singles out NASCAR fans and people who listen to hip-hop music as being horrible human beings.

 

The book has no index or list of sources. There are very few footnotes, and none of them refer to any reliable sources. One gets the impression that the few footnotes were tossed in to make the book appear to be a work based on research, but Kunstler is no researcher. Where do his facts come from? He doesn't bothering telling us- we're just supposed to trust him.

 

Despite his protestations on the very first page, it is clear throughout the book that Kunstler WANTS society to collapse. His resentment towards modern America (and modern Americans) is obvious on every single page of this book. He wants Americans to suffer because he thinks that we deserve it.

 

Ultimately, this book is based less on facts that it is on Kunstler's personal social prejudices. For a better understanding of Peak Oil and its implications, I would recommend Richard Heinberg's "The Party's Over" and Paul Roberts' "The End of Oil." In those books, you get the basic facts of the situation and suggestions for how to make the situation better, without the insulting, self-righteous, holier-than-thou ranting of this work.

 

and

 

 

Shallow, inconsistent, and a racist to boot.

 

Having read a good bit of the recent scientific literature on the peak oil problem, in addition to the alarmist crap promulgated by authors like Kunstler, I agree that we may well be entering the global peak oil scenario envisioned by Hubbert, Campbell, and others with genuine credentials in the petroleum industry. However, given the importance of the issue it would be better not to indulge in a vague rant about the end of civilization. Kunstler's argument runs something like this: economy is dependent upon transport, transport is dependent upon oil, hence no oil implies no economy. Unfortunately that analysis skips over the question of efficiency without even a glance. The unstated assumption is that the only vehicles we can produce must have an oil supply as abundant as the current one, but that is simply not true.

 

In the U.S. the average fleet efficiency is presently about 20 miles per gallon. Yet, in Europe it is possible RIGHT NOW to buy a four passenger, production car from either VW or Audi that will get 80 to 100 miles to the gallon. This is not speculation or science fiction, nor must we wait for technological breakthroughs. The cars are coming off conventional production lines TODAY. This means that over a few years time, the fleet efficiency could be QUADRUPLED without any special trouble at all.

 

Nor is this anywhere near the best that can be done. VW has a two seat concept car that gets as much as 300 miles to the gallon on the highway. That's right - Boston to New York on one gallon with fuel to spare. This car is not yet in production, but the prototype exists, and performs as advertised. Moreover it is a very attractive car. I'd love to have one myself. Anyone can read about it on the Web, and VW can clearly go into production if it chooses to. Unfortunately, our friend Kunstler dismisses this entire set of facts without a word, even though these cars have been around for some years, and they have been rather well publicized among those who actually care about fuel efficiency.

 

Obviously the remaining oil will last a lot longer if we improve the fleet efficiency by a factor of five or ten, but it's even better than that. The proponents of ethanol and biodiesel estimate that the Western world could produce enough of these fuels to cover about 25% of our current requirements given the current fleet efficiency. However, if we drive cars that are four times as efficient then biofuels would cover ALL of our requirements. Thus, we don't need the petroleum at all, and we can quietly give it up any time we care to spend a few years making the changeover.

 

Kunstler does have a sentence or three dismissing ethanol as a net energy loss since modern factory farming currently requires large inputs of petroleum. However, it does not have to be that way. He envisions everyone going back to an agrarian life in which the land would still produce the food we need, but there seems to be no reason that it could not produce biofuels as well. Again, this does not require any technological breakthrough, but simply wider adoption of more energy-efficient farming methods. In short, he comes off as deliberately inconsistent when he suggests that we could grow food, but that somehow we could not grow the material to make biofuels.

 

Finally, his remarks about Southerners are nothing more than racist garbage. I took the trouble to query Kunstler on this point by email, and simply got more of the same. At a guess I'd say he did his research on the question by watching old reruns of Hee Haw and Dukes of Hazzard. He said, among other things, "I suppose a lot of these Nascar idiots were suited to persevere through a lot of mindless hard labor -- up until two generations ago, many were sharecroppers." Anyone saying comparable things about Jewish folks from, say, New York City, or African-Americans anywhere would be nailed instantly as a racist, and the same holds for mindless stereotyping of anyone else. Racial and ethnic insults are always odious, but coming from a guy who claims to have the last word on the fate of humanity it is simply stupid.

 

I wouldn't have given the book any stars at all, but the system insisted on at least one. The book is a waste of time. If you want to read about Peak Oil there are plenty of actual geologists writing coherent, well-reasoned books on the subject, and if you want to find about the alternatives to a petroleum-based economy there are similarly plenty of expert authors dealing with any given topic. Kunstler is just a shallow, obnoxious jerk trying to make a quick buck by cribbing from his betters. I heartily suggest that you spend your money elsewhere.

 

 

Now unlike the above reviewer I do not see Biofuels as some sort of panacea. Relying on them introduces a whole new set of problems but since the review was posted in 2006 I don't think real world experience was out yet that it introduces problems that don't solve things.

 

Still...I've seen some amazing research being done to create high-grade gasoline from single-celled organisms (they skip the oil phase altogether and just poop high-grade gasoline. ). Along with all kinds of other research being done. If even a few of these things take off and become popular it could begin shifting things without invoking the doom and gloom Kunstler envisions.

 

 

I did not realize Kunstler was not a geologist.

 

According to Wikipedia he has no degree nor research in the areas in which he discusses.

 

Edit: went back and read Wiki again. They said his degree is in Theater. And after that he went into writing for magazines and books. That doesn't immediately disqualify him imo since lots of people end up in fields other than what their formal education was in. Still...I do wonder where all his non-University training came from.

 

 

 

 

And for a Jew to be making such remarks about other people is um...odd to say the least (Southerners who like NASCAR? One such "NASCAR idiot" he's talking about is my DAD who has a PHD in mathematics).

Edited February 23, 2012 by SereneBlue

[Encephalon]

Probably a good idea not to read his stuff, unless you're goin to stick with his older stuff like "The Geography of Nowhere." I like his sense of humor but for less caustic expression you might consider his colleague Richard Heinberg of the Post Carbon Institute.

 

I obviously disagree with the reviewers since I enjoy his works and have sound reason to support his basic themes. He's clearly angry about the mess we've got ourselves into since it was not only avoidable but a predictable consequence of creating a nation that can't live without sucking the global tit dry, but I reject the notion that he relishes the prospect of our country being reduced to cannabilistic hordes.

Edited February 23, 2012 by Encephalon

[joeblast]

ROFLMAO so now we're going from post oil to post carbon?

 

What do you do when you go post carbon...slit your throat and stay a yin spirit, refusing to take part in the evil yang of carbon and its cycle?

[idquest]

ROFLMAO so now we're going from post oil to post carbon?

 

What do you do when you go post carbon...slit your throat and stay a yin spirit, refusing to take part in the evil yang of carbon and its cycle?

Not so radical. There are new technologies coming. Right now oil companies are subsidized which in fact makes the oil/gas price lower than it should be. Let's remove those subsidies first. The next step is to allocate the cost of recent pro-oil wars (the total of $3 trillion by some estimates, and that without the coming Iran's war) to gas. That would make the gas price even more realistic. After that, all of a sudden, the alternative technologies would appear not so expensive comparing to oil/gas. That would also make a transition to new technologies less drastic, as you have noted earlier.

 

New technology frontiers make headway for humanity, not drilling new holes in a lame attempt to pump out a few more drops of black stuff.

[JustARandomPanda]

Not so radical. There are new technologies coming. Right now oil companies are subsidized which in fact makes the oil/gas price lower than it should be. Let's remove those subsidies first.

 

I would be in favor of this.

 

 

The next step is to allocate the cost of recent pro-oil wars (the total of $3 trillion by some estimates, and that without the coming Iran's war) to gas. That would make the gas price even more realistic.

 

I would NOT be in favor of this. In fact...this would have some very hidden, perverse consequences. The primary one being that it would make the Military (and secondarily all Military Contractors) have an even stronger impetus to push for pro-oil policies/expansion at all levels of government. In the above scheme they'd get some oil tax revenue.

[joeblast]

Not so radical. There are new technologies coming. Right now oil companies are subsidized which in fact makes the oil/gas price lower than it should be. Let's remove those subsidies first. The next step is to allocate the cost of recent pro-oil wars (the total of $3 trillion by some estimates, and that without the coming Iran's war) to gas. That would make the gas price even more realistic. After that, all of a sudden, the alternative technologies would appear not so expensive comparing to oil/gas. That would also make a transition to new technologies less drastic, as you have noted earlier.

 

New technology frontiers make headway for humanity, not drilling new holes in a lame attempt to pump out a few more drops of black stuff.

"Allocate the cost" - what the...? Where is that money coming from again? Out of the back pockets of taxpayers? We'll simply allocate it??? *facepalm*

 

Drastic contrived schmastic. Forcing taxpayers to foot r&d costs for fledgling technologies that cant keep their own head above water without massive subsidy is a good way to waste a whole hell of a lot of money, time, and resources. Markets respond to real necessity, not forced necessity. That's why "command and control economies" fail. It would be different if they were viable of their own accord, or even with small subsidy, but when it is simply infeasible to get from point a to point b on the plus side of things eventually one realizes the money pit he's tossing his resources into isnt yielding anything back - and that's the crux of the class warfare - massive government created money pits that subsidize a handful of relatively rich people at the expense of the middle class.

 

The solutions are so simple when you can just toss reality out the window and ignore bottom lines. Do you think Germany, Spain, Portugal are scaling back their subsidies because the technology is now cheap enough? No, its becoming such a significant drain that they simply cannot afford to keep doing it.

 

In other words, "running out of other people's money."

 

Tax breaks for r&d are an entirely different animal than outright overt government funding. But, lump it all under "subsidy" and then you can make nice neat little equivalences and change the equation to make it say what you want...

[idquest]

Meaningful financial analysis comes from accurate data. What I tried to convey was that current price of gas is misleading. Gas now is much cheaper than it should be. That distorts financial picture and makes people to make wrong decisions about their business models budgeting.

 

I gather you don't really mind cancelling subsidies for the oil and gas producing companies. As for the wars, right now they are financed through the federal budget deficit. That is all citizens are accountable for that by means of general tax revenue. Whereas in fact, the wars were to secure oil production and delivery, that is their costs should be allocated to the oil finished products. That would make the pricing more accurate. How to do that technically is another issue. But essencially that would mean decreasing taxes in one place (general tax for individuals and businesses) and increasing tax for gas. Tax revenue neutral.

[joeblast]

cheaper than it should be its too damned high, just like the rent! wait until the wet blanket's gone and there's a whole lot of things that arent necessarily reflecting real value right now anyway.

 

so you're saying we should 'tax the oil companies' to pay for the wars..? (and if as...as if that cost wouldnt be directly passed on to the consumer? sorta like the same adage of any corporate tax being simply passed right on to the consumer since the bottom line is always reflected in the price, in some fashion or another...)

[Desert Eagle]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xShCEKL-mQ8&feature=BFa&list=PL15FAB758B7C766D7&lf=results_main

[idquest]

cheaper than it should be its too damned high, just like the rent! wait until the wet blanket's gone and there's a whole lot of things that arent necessarily reflecting real value right now anyway.

 

so you're saying we should 'tax the oil companies' to pay for the wars..? (and if as...as if that cost wouldnt be directly passed on to the consumer? sorta like the same adage of any corporate tax being simply passed right on to the consumer since the bottom line is always reflected in the price, in some fashion or another...)

Yes this is exactly what I mean, the gas is much cheaper than it should be because it is subsidized. The problem with finances is that nobody can kick a can down the road forever. Sooner or later the crude awakening will come. This is what Encephalon is talking about. You can ignore it or you can listen to it and make some preparations.

 

No, I'm not saying we should tax oil companies with some additional tax. Removing subsidies - yes. But everybody should realize that the real price of gas is higher than you can see on the gas stations today.

[ralis]

Yes this is exactly what I mean, the gas is much cheaper than it should be because it is subsidized. The problem with finances is that nobody can kick a can down the road forever. Sooner or later the crude awakening will come. This is what Encephalon is talking about. You can ignore it or you can listen to it and make some preparations.

 

No, I'm not saying we should tax oil companies with some additional tax. Removing subsidies - yes. But everybody should realize that the real price of gas is higher than you can see on the gas stations today.

 

I don't agree. Oil and gasoline prices are higher because of speculation in the commodities market. Speculators are not interested in using the contracts which are traded but are only interested in making massive amounts of money. Around 70% of all oil futures are owned by Wall Street. Demand for gasoline is low in the U.S., yet gas prices have increased by .40 cents in the last month. Further, the largest U.S. export is gasoline. The simplistic supply and demand model that politicians and economists love to pander to the masses is a ludicrous explanation for this occurrence. Unregulated speculation is not factored into the simplistic supply and demand model.

 

Before the markets were deregulated, contracts were bought and sold so as fleets and airlines could price their fees 6 months to a year in advance. A Google search will show relevant information.

 

FYI, I have traded commodities and understand the mechanics of the markets extremely well. BTW, I don't own or trade oil futures!

 

Do some research. Here is a place to start.

 

http://www.kentucky....-influence.html

Edited February 25, 2012 by SereneBlue

[zerostao]

well on the brighter side of things there is this:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/next-great-depression-mit-researchers-predict-global-economic-190352944.html

 

those mayan calendar thingies go in 20 year cycles? 2012-2030 yeah, it doesnt quite make the full 20

so reckon there was no need to add the next one.

 

i am gonna party like it's 2029!!!

 

http://limits-to-growth.org/

[JoelStottlemire]

Excellent article and thread.

Though I take exception with this last part.

Reorganizing civilization only happens through a process.

"We" cannot "do" it.

"It" does "us."

So our best bet is to reorganize ourselves.

To be the change we want to make in society.

There is, has been, and will be NO political or religious solution to our problems.

We are the problem.

 

 

The system is always reorganizing itself. I try to focus on how to use wu wei to make myself part of the solution rather than part of the problem.

 

Joel, author

http://hongkonghonky.blogspot.com/

[gendao]

Right now oil companies are subsidized which in fact makes the oil/gas price lower than it should be. Let's remove those subsidies first. The next step is to allocate the cost of recent pro-oil wars (the total of $3 trillion by some estimates, and that without the coming Iran's war) to gas. That would make the gas price even more realistic. After that, all of a sudden, the alternative technologies would appear not so expensive comparing to oil/gas. That would also make a transition to new technologies less drastic, as you have noted earlier.

I totally agree! Brilliant 2-point plan - someone's done their homework!! No more subsidies & better yet, just no more oil/currency wars, period!

High time to re-level the playing field and re-open the free market to free competition!!!

Edited April 14, 2012 by vortex

[joeblast]

T boone pickens: "I lost my ass investing in wind"

 

re green? "sure, jobs are there, so long as the subsidies are"

 

funny, them economic realities.

 

sorry, but tax break on r&d is only going to keep the price down over the long haul. to refer to it as subsidies in the same way one would refer to green subsidies, those are not even close to on par. you mean more like pissing money away and getting relatively little for it (in some cases none at all, solyndra et al) when only artificial limit and huge subsidy is the *only* reason there can be any relative price parity. otherwise its just laughable how much more expensive 'going green' is, and for dubious little benefit. (like paying for the name nike.)

[idquest]

I'd differentiate r&d tax credits given to oil companies and credits given to alternative technologies companies.

 

When you give r&d tax credit to an oil company, you support a well established technology that has existed for at least 50 years, even if we take into consideration the most complex ocean rigs. Whereas when you give r&d tax credits to alternative technologies companies, you promote completely new technologies that can and will move the USA forward and maintain its world leadership. When you support the oil companies, you only promote inefficient business models requiring large consumption of refined oil; you also maintain oil leadership in the USA and their owners. I don't think this is in the long term interests.

[joeblast]

I'd differentiate r&d tax credits given to oil companies and credits given to alternative technologies companies.

 

When you give r&d tax credit to an oil company, you support a well established technology that has existed for at least 50 years, even if we take into consideration the most complex ocean rigs. Whereas when you give r&d tax credits to alternative technologies companies, you promote completely new technologies that can and will move the USA forward and maintain its world leadership. When you support the oil companies, you only promote inefficient business models requiring large consumption of refined oil; you also maintain oil leadership in the USA and their owners. I don't think this is in the long term interests.

The disparity lies in the fact that the fledgling industries cannot survive on their own just yet, so any concept of it just being "an r&d credit" is fallacy. The business model itself must be actively supported by subsidy before r&d even enters into the equation. The only bad inefficiencies wrt oil are the extortion we have to endure from relying on opec countries for a large percentage of the oil we consume.

 

Also when the prices get jacked up, where does all that extra money go - usually the last place you want it to go. But somehow making gas and oil artificially expensive is going to make alternative fuels more attractive? Yes, but we're still getting screwed one way or the other in such a paradigm. New, alternative technologies can be developed without having people say "this must be the only form of energy we use, oil is just so dirty, now let's jack up our energy prices tenfold and reduce the amount of disposable income the population has so that our goal can be forwarded, screw the people."