Britain and the European Union

[Apech]

So, I've just been watching Farage on the BBC. He's claiming, with sense, that every country in the world has access to the European market anyway. So I was just wondering, what are the restrictions on countries outside the EU who want to do dealing with those inside?

 

The point he's making is that there is no need to allow free movement of people and give up our borders just to get access to the European market as we have it anyway? Is this true? Sorry to ask Daobums this, but I've not been able to find the answers to this easily on the internet.

 

If the above is true, then I'd have to agree with him that they may as well get on with negotiating a separation as quickly as possible before the will of the people gets diluted.

 

 

Depends whether you think having access to the single market is important - free movement is a condition.

[Chang]

The Left Wing Liberal and Champaign Socialist Political Classes are smarting badly at the moment and lashing out in all directions.

 

What appears as chaos is simply change which offers opportunity. Whether this opportunity will be taken and put to good use remains to be seen.

 

We also see doubtful characters twisting matters to suit their own agenda - The Scottish Nationalists being the vanguard here.

 

The E.U. was an unholy mess before the referendum and is an unholy mess now, it is simply a case of the referendum result taking the spotlight off them and putting it on the U.K. This will not be the case for long.

 

As regards the U.K. political scene the sooner Cameron and by default Osborne are gone and replaced by those sympathetic to the referendum result the better. Hard barganing needs to be the order of the day putting the United Kingdoms interests first. By stepping out of the E.U. we have gained strength of purpose and need only keep our nerve.

 

A strong Conservative leader should be able to accomplish almost all they wish, especially as europe descends further into chaos.

 

The Socialist opposition will hardly be a problem as they are in a mess which puts all other messes to shame.

[Jetsun]

I wonder if many of the Brexiters will be happy when the Tory government sign up to the free movement of people, reclamation of the borders won't even happen.

[Chang]

I wonder if many of the Brexiters will be happy when the Tory government sign up to the free movement of people, reclamation of the borders won't even happen.

 

You already know the answer to this.

 

No one has signed up for anything yet, though Nicola Sturgeon has stated that immigrants are still welcome in Scotland - so long as they are not English.

[Miffymog]

I wonder if many of the Brexiters will be happy when the Tory government sign up to the free movement of people, reclamation of the borders won't even happen.

 

One of the benefits of having had the referendum is that we can now get to the real issues, whereas during the campaigning, there were harder to see. Access to the single market. The banking industry having 'passports' to function in other countries.

 

Although the FTSE may well slowly slide downwards with out certainty, so will the cohesion of the EU. It's kind of a race to see which one suffers most and more quickly as to what deals are agreed upon.

[Karl]

So, I've just been watching Farage on the BBC. He's claiming, with sense, that every country in the world has access to the European market anyway. So I was just wondering, what are the restrictions on countries outside the EU who want to do dealing with those inside?

 

The point he's making is that there is no need to allow free movement of people and give up our borders just to get access to the European market as we have it anyway? Is this true? Sorry to ask Daobums this, but I've not been able to find the answers to this easily on the internet.

 

If the above is true, then I'd have to agree with him that they may as well get on with negotiating a separation as quickly as possible before the will of the people gets diluted.

Yes, of course it is, but this isn't the game being played. If we got the bloody politicians out of the way we could get on with freely trading with each other, but, as it is, from outside we may face a certain amount of reluctance because we have left the union. It won't last very long, but that's where we are. The politicians want their cut on any deal, they want their own electorate to see them as relevant and important in negotiations. It's all a big sham. We can leave, put their noses out for a bit, maybe pay a tiny tarriff which we can impose by return-which is essentially what usual occurs for those outside the block.

[Karl]

One of the benefits of having had the referendum is that we can now get to the real issues, whereas during the campaigning, there were harder to see. Access to the single market. The banking industry having 'passports' to function in other countries.

 

Although the FTSE may well slowly slide downwards with out certainty, so will the cohesion of the EU. It's kind of a race to see which one suffers most and more quickly as to what deals are agreed upon.

Its important to grasp that the fundamentals of stocks, bonds and currencies are global. The FTSE sliding downwards doesn't imply it has a direct causality but perhaps a necessary one.

 

To understand what I'm saying requires some expertise. The reason the stock markets boomed is because of money printing. There is a direct correlation between stocks and monetary expansion and monetary tightening. In March of this year the BoE let out some of the air from the bubble by tightening the M4 (notes and coins in circulation) number and the gap between tightening and stock loss is around 3/6 months depending on market volatility.

 

Brexit is something the markets don't understand, they can't figure out if it's good or bad, so they simply factor it in as volatility risk and so this helps to push down the market more quickly.

 

It's also worth noting that these market movements are historically insignificant. The pound has been higher and lower, it means very little. Initially it causes the price of imports to rise, but, the market determines the price/supply. Hence, say fuel is £2 a litre, then people adjust their buying patterns. In the end, supply and demand must correlate at some point. If no one is buying any fuel then the price falls until people begin buying again. If the price fall is insufficient then the state is forced to cut fuel duty to stimulate the demand that it is choking off.

 

I watched the PM answering questions from an MP who stated that a small builder had rung her to say that a number of projects had been cancelled due to Brexit fears. It's impossible to know the circumstances, but, it is true that when the possibility of fiscal and monetary tightening/interest rises (price of money stops being artificially reduced) begin to become reality, then the type of investment begins to alter. Austrian business cycle theory call the previous activity 'mal-investment'. This is because holding down interest rates produces the wrong market signal to entrepreneurs. It suggests that people are saving instead of spending because they have plenty of spare cash and so the businessman can invest more cheaply in the hope that he can get the saver to spend on some new product or service.

 

Unfortunately this false signalling is responsible for a 'crack up' boom. The cheap money floods the market and causes investors to make errors, which, for a while at least create the illusion of a healthy market. Where the money pours from central bank spigots into the areas where it is first utilised it creates price inflation. Today, due to poor wages, low wage jobs, high debt, high tax, high energy/fuel/transport/higher education, the boom has settled into stocks and other assets such as property, classic cars, wine, paintings. Eventually all of that boom will have to be unwound. No one knows when, only that it will. Events like Brexit can often be the catalyst for the market unwinding back to reality, but it wasn't Britain in the EU that created the boom in the first place, it was Governments and Central Banks.

[futuredaze]

Seeing people freak out about Brexit on social media is interesting.  A lot of these people don't even live in the UK, or even Europe, but still like to voice their opinions/echo media propaganda.

 

While I think John Oliver can be funny, he is clearly biased and people shouldn't take his word as gospel.  In the U.S., I always knew the media was biased, but it seems now they are either more biased or not trying to hide is as much.  Either way, it is making a lot of people freak out over things like Brexit and Trump.  Whether or not people support Brexit or not, support Trump or not, I think any person who can think logically and clearly can deduce the media is not only exaggerating the potential negatives, but doing so to ensue the status quo.  It is now more obvious than ever who is just blindly following media and who are challenging it.  The media is like "the boy who cried wolf" -- it has lied so much, now people don't trust it even if they were to show something true.

 

A lot of people are complaining about old people having a big impact on the exit vote.  I've never realized how fucking idiotic and disrespectful a lot of folks in the younger generation are (especially the left, in this case).  They act like these people have less of a voice, just because they won't be alive for a long time.  The older folks are the only ones who experienced a pre-EU UK, so I think they have more perspective.  Not only that, but they have children/grandchildren and they are voting for them just as much as their self.  Democracy and the "me generation" do not seem to go well together, since the younger generation acts so spoiled and is only for free speech if people agree with you.  If not, they will use some generalized insult like "racist" or "bigot" while running to their safe spaces.

Edited June 30, 2016 by futuredaze

[Karl]

Now we have exposed the media through Brexit we can all see just how biased it really is. It's woken people up.

 

We must watch the financial tricksters and political engineers who work in the dark to create conditions. Today Mark Carney of the BoE announced the possibility of QE in July.

 

The pound was rising, the stock market was stable, inflation was nominal and employment at an all time high, yet, the BoE decides to print money.

 

Let's get this straight, he wants to devalue the pound, increase asset prices, further destroy savings/pensions, increase debt, put more of our money into the pockets of the wealthy elite. He wants to print money when there is currently a low pound and high stock market ?

 

That looks awfully like the 'punishment strategy' of George Osborne for the plebs who wouldn't do what they were told. I knew they would this. Osborne will tear his head to save the day when the poor are lying in the streets starving. We need to get this stopped.

[soaring crane]

Boris Johnson is very lucky to have dual citizenship. Expect him to take advantage of it in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... 

[Karl]

Boris Johnson is very lucky to have dual citizenship. Expect him to take advantage of it in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

 

I believe he renounced his US citizenship when he realised the tax implications.

[Karl]

Drunker acts like a dick.

[Jetsun]

Our brave new leader 

 

https://vine.co/v/hgbab1H2LH7

 

Not at all a puppet of Murdoch and the press

[Miffymog]

Now we have exposed the media through Brexit we can all see just how biased it really is. It's woken people up.

 

We must watch the financial tricksters and political engineers who work in the dark to create conditions. Today Mark Carney of the BoE announced the possibility of QE in July.

 

The pound was rising, the stock market was stable, inflation was nominal and employment at an all time high, yet, the BoE decides to print money.

 

Let's get this straight, he wants to devalue the pound, increase asset prices, further destroy savings/pensions, increase debt, put more of our money into the pockets of the wealthy elite. He wants to print money when there is currently a low pound and high stock market ?

 

That looks awfully like the 'punishment strategy' of George Osborne for the plebs who wouldn't do what they were told. I knew they would this. Osborne will tear his head to save the day when the poor are lying in the streets starving. We need to get this stopped.

 

 

There was something that didn't feel quite right about Carney's speech. I don't really understand economics, but if I try really hard to follow the thread of an argument and I get lost halfway through, I tend to think there's a chance that was half the point. A few too many details that didn't really string together. Now, what the deeper motives are, I can't say, but I did feel it slightly unsettling.

[Karl]

Our brave new leader 

 

https://vine.co/v/hgbab1H2LH7

 

Not at all a puppet of Murdoch and the press

I doubt Gove will be leader, I would prefer it, but as I forecast many months ago, I think it's going to be May.

 

I was interested in Hitchens viewpoint that what we are seeing is the emergence of two new parties-if they can ditch their respective corpses. He was very insightful. His comment was that the Conservatives are Blairites who hate Britain and Labour are Blairites that hate the people of Britain. I don't like socialism, or Corbyn, but it is a genuine revolution suffocating under Blairite politicians. The Conservatives haven't yet split that far, but Gove represents a return to social Conservatism and a love of Britain.

[Karl]

There was something that didn't feel quite right about Carney's speech. I don't really understand economics, but if I try really hard to follow the thread of an argument and I get lost halfway through, I tend to think there's a chance that was half the point. A few too many details that didn't really string together. Now, what the deeper motives are, I can't say, but I did feel it slightly unsettling.

He doesn't understand economics either. The bankers and the rich tell him they are a bit short and can't cover their gambling debts, so Carney threatens to print a load of cash to help them out.

[Chang]

I doubt Gove will be leader, I would prefer it, but as I forecast many months ago, I think it's going to be May.

 

I was interested in Hitchens viewpoint that what we are seeing is the emergence of two new parties-if they can ditch their respective corpses. He was very insightful. His comment was that the Conservatives are Blairites who hate Britain and Labour are Blairites that hate the people of Britain. I don't like socialism, or Corbyn, but it is a genuine revolution suffocating under Blairite politicians. The Conservatives haven't yet split that far, but Gove represents a return to social Conservatism and a love of Britain.

 

I also fear that May will be our next Prime Minister. One has to ask the question that when the electorate have voted to leave the E.U. how can the ruling party vote in a new leader who supported the remaniac cause?

[Karl]

I also fear that May will be our next Prime Minister. One has to ask the question that when the electorate have voted to leave the E.U. how can the ruling party vote in a new leader who supported the remaniac cause?

I don't think that would be particularly bad considering the other options. She was never a strong remainer and acted for more sensibly than Cameron, Osborne or Javid by doing a Wilson.

 

We should never have required a referendum. If Conservatives had been proper Conservatives they would have taken us out anyway without the awful carnage of a split country. If Labour had still loved the people it would have listened to its core voters and their concerns about immigration. Instead they acted like the answer was less austerity-when we didn't have any Austerity to speak of. The Conservatives answer was to tell everyone how much immigration was doing for the economy and how tolerant and greatful we should be.

 

May won't last long, because with a bit of luck the Conservatives will crack up the way Labour has-under Johnson I doubt they would have lasted more than a few weeks before pandemonium set in. At least it will be a controlled demolition under May, instead of a Big Bang under Johnson.

 

It's interesting to watch the fallout from this referendum. The establishment are lost and confused, they no longer get the respect and no one listens to their propaganda. It's like Woolworths before it closed down-no one, including staff and owners, knew what it was for, or where it was going.

[Karl]

Bye Bye EU banking system......all this money printing has eventually landed on European shores. At the same time Bitish property speculators stage a run to get their money back and find the doors locked. One has remained open but given its investors a 17% hair cut.

 

US is hovering on the edge. They are the monetary super volcano. This time the ripples from Brexit might well set it off.

Edited July 6, 2016 by Karl

[Miffymog]

Bye Bye EU banking system......all this money printing has eventually landed on European shores. At the same time Bitish property speculators stage a run to get their money back and find the doors locked. One has remained open but given its investors a 17% hair cut.

 

US is hovering on the edge. They are the monetary super volcano. This time the ripples from Brexit might well set it off.

 

I was almost getting a sense of this ... the 4 main American banks have just all said they'll keep their European head quarters in London (although there may be large scale relocation of staff). I was wondering why they all chose to do this now. It's clearly out of pure self interest, but I couldn't work out what they were benefiting by doing this. Is it to minimise those ripples you were speaking of?

[Jetsun]

I was almost getting a sense of this ... the 4 main American banks have just all said they'll keep their European head quarters in London (although there may be large scale relocation of staff). I was wondering why they all chose to do this now. It's clearly out of pure self interest, but I couldn't work out what they were benefiting by doing this. Is it to minimise those ripples you were speaking of?

EU are going to put caps on banker bonuses, so in Britain they can get 50 Mil $ as a reward for shafting us rather than 5

[Miffymog]

EU are going to put caps on banker bonuses, so in Britain they can get 50 Mil $ as a reward for shafting us rather than 5

 

Oh yes, one of the main attractions of London is the freedom these bankers get. However, France have just proposed giving expats different tax laws to locals in an attempt to temp city boys to Paris ...

[Karl]

I was almost getting a sense of this ... the 4 main American banks have just all said they'll keep their European head quarters in London (although there may be large scale relocation of staff). I was wondering why they all chose to do this now. It's clearly out of pure self interest, but I couldn't work out what they were benefiting by doing this. Is it to minimise those ripples you were speaking of?

The banking system is knackered, completely zombified and acting as an outlet for printing presses. Have a look at Deutche bank-it's gonna blow captain. It will make Lehman look like a drinking fountain next to a geyser. Banks are manoeuvring to keep close to the monetary spigots where they can shelter a bit longer. I've forecast this four years out. I was spot on with commodities. By the end of this year expect properties to have lost 20% at least and some much more. This sucker is imploding and the Central Banks are just jawboning the market. Gold has shot up as have gold stocks. Japan is in serious trouble as is the super tanker of China. The yen to dollar rate is close on parity, when it finally gets there then there is no more carry trade-which is why Carney is injecting liquidity, the code for allowing the banks to lend at zero interest in order to pick up the tab.

 

I might be wrong, maybe they get another throw and chuck it in the long grass, but from where I'm sitting it looks like 2008 all over again, but this time it's a long hill and no brakes. The hill is 10 times as high and a lot steeper.

 

I was going to suggest something here prior to Gold lift off after Brexit, but held off. Anyone that has any cash in banks should get it out and convert as much into PM as they can afford without leaving themselves without cash. Then you might think of stocking up on tins and essentials. If what I think is coming down the pipe occurs, this will be one hell of a shock for those not sufficiently prepared.

 

Even if it doesn't happen this time, it's nailed on to happen in the next two years, so worth doing something now.

[Apech]

It is rather astonishing, to me in any case, that we now have a 'Remain' Prime Minister and the complete annihilation of the 'Leave' leaders - Boris, Gove, Leadsom (who she?), Fararge ... all gone, and IDS invisible as ever.  So we have 'Brexit means Brexit' May in charge.  Is this some kind cosmic balancing 'winning equals loosing' thing - or does it support what I maintained all along that the Leave movement was just a load of emotional hogwash put forward by a bunch of lightweights - which just happened to capture the public mood for something to change.

 

I know Karl is going to say he doesn't care who is in charge as long as we leave the EU - but then there are signs already there of a some kind of a deal has already been struck between our bunch and Merkel - and ironically Brexit seems to have caused a pro EU swing in the rest of Europe and a move away from the far right.  It seems very comfortable to me.  Expect very little to change - especially migration rules.

[joeblast]

Wasnt Farage an EU mp for britain?  If so, what reason does he have to stick around in that position, if they're leaving?

 

You guys need Farage for PM