Probability of Change

[Daeluin]

So I'm curious about the probability of receiving a changing line in a casting.

 

From the wikipedia page is a nice chart with probabilities:

1. With both coins and milfoil there is a 50% chance of getting a yin or yang line.
2. With both coins and milfoil there is a 25% chance of getting a changing line.
3. Within a changing line:
   1. With coins it is equally probable for the change to be yin-to-yang or yang-to-yin.
   2. However with milfoil it is more probable for a yang line to change than for a yin line to change.

So it would appear that different casting methods draw on different principles to calculate change.

 

Milfoil appears to use the principle that it is more likely for yang energy (firmness/substance) to change and become used and form yin. While on the other hand it is less likely for yin receptivity to cultivate enough stillness within its field for what is in motion to settle and gather back into firmness / yang.

 

While with coins it would appear just as likely for a yin to settle into yang as yang to settle into yin.

 

I know a lot of people prefer to use coins as milfoil takes much longer. However given the above differences, I wonder if we can really consider these methods to be interchangeable.

 

 

 

Earlier I was also reading about the marble method for casting, which appears to duplicate the probability of milfoil castings while making the process much simpler. Marbles are nice and simple, but any objects could work once marked appropriately, like these.

 

 

 

I am curious if others have explored this difference in principle behind change within casting methods.

[Brian]

Off-topic diversion...

 

 

So I'm curious about the probability of receiving a changing line in a casting.

 

From the wikipedia page is a nice chart with probabilities:

• With both coins and milfoil there is a 50% chance of getting a yin or yang line.
• With both coins and milfoil there is a 25% chance of getting a changing line.
• Within a changing line:
• With coins it is equally probable for the change to be yin-to-yang or yang-to-yin.
• However with milfoil it is more probable for a yang line to change than for a yin line to change.

 

 

So it would appear that different casting methods draw on different principles to calculate change.

 

Milfoil appears to use the principle that it is more likely for yang energy (firmness/substance) to change and become used and form yin. While on the other hand it is less likely for yin receptivity to cultivate enough stillness within its field for what is in motion to settle and gather back into firmness / yang.

 

While with coins it would appear just as likely for a yin to settle into yang as yang to settle into yin.

 

I know a lot of people prefer to use coins as milfoil takes much longer. However given the above differences, I wonder if we can really consider these methods to be interchangeable.

 

 

 

Earlier I was also reading about the marble method for casting, which appears to duplicate the probability of milfoil castings while making the process much simpler. Marbles are nice and simple, but any objects could work once marked appropriately, like these.

 

 

 

I am curious if others have explored this difference in principle behind change within casting methods.

 

 

 

^^^Just wanted to point out that the preference expressed in the bolded paragraph necessarily means a continual drift overall towards a nearly pure-yang steady-state. If the imbalance is very small, that just means it takes longer to get there.

 

Just food for thought.

 

EDIT: Corrected to read ""nearly pure-yin steady-state" instead of the "nearly pure-yang steady-state" I inadvertently typed on my smartphone when this was originally posted. Sorry for the confusion which follows!

Edited February 22, 2016 by Brian

[Daeluin]

Ah - so the 16 object method might give the 1/7-yin 3/5-yang probabilities, however it is being debated that the yarrow technique actually yield's a more complex probability more closely related to a 38 object method giving 2/17-yin, 8/11-yang chances.

 

Interestingly this means that the rare yin-to-yang changes of the 16 object method become even rarer in a milfoil divination, and the more common changes yang to yin in 16 object are actually even more common with milfoil.

[Daeluin]

 

Milfoil appears to use the principle that it is more likely for yang energy (firmness/substance) to change and become used and form yin. While on the other hand it is less likely for yin receptivity to cultivate enough stillness within its field for what is in motion to settle and gather back into firmness / yang.

 

^^^Just wanted to point out that the preference expressed in the bolded paragraph necessarily means a continual drift overall towards a nearly pure-yang steady-state. If the imbalance is very small, that just means it takes longer to get there.

 

Just food for thought.

 

Hmmm, I'm a little confused by what you might mean by "pure-yang steady-state." If the drift is related to stored-potential-energy (yang) becoming more used than it is returned into storage, how does it reach a "pure-yang steady-state?"

 

To me it feels like the drift is toward the creation of the 10,000 things, perhaps as related to our observation of the continual expansion of the universe.

 

If this creation-heavy drift is what is being marked, perhaps that is the key to knowing which methods to apply for readings.

[Brian]

Completely off-topic soliloquy about harmonic oscillators...

 

That's why I said nearly (and I meant "nearly pure-yin" but just mixed mixed up the words), and I should have been more clear about that (a sloppy consequence of responding with a short-answer on a smartphone) -- it wouldn't necessarily be "nearly pure" so much as decidedly unbalanced. It won't reach a pure yang state because there's a greater-than-zero probability of it changing from yang to yin. At some point (determined by the total population of potential state-change opportunities AND the differential between the two rates of change), an equilibrium will be reached, at which point the higher rate of change (yin->yang) of balanced by the greater quantity of total yangs (each of which has a small chance of turning to yin before relatively quickly turning back to yang again).

 

The balance, in reality, must be dynamic. This means that the rates of change really need to be dependent upon the degree of imbalance. Mathematically speaking, we are talking about an undamped harmonic oscillator (or a harmonic oscillator in which the damping is offset by a forcing function, but that's unnecessarily complicated). Think if a weight suspended by a spring, for instance. Beofre the weight is attached to the spring, the bottom of the spring is at a certain rest-point. The spring is then gently attached and lowered to the new rest-point. After that, a displacement of the weight up or down results in an imbalance of forces which will drive the weight through the equilibrium point to a point of maximum displacement before the increasing restorative force pulls it back towards the equilibrium point, overshooting it and going all the way to an opposite point of maximum displacement on the other side. The direction of the restorative force is always towards the equilibrium point and the magnitude of the force increases with displacement, reaching a maximum at the points of maximum displacement and crossing zero when the weight moves through its own equilibrium point. Plot the position of the weight and the restorative force as functions of time and you get two sinusoidal curves moving in opposition to each other.

 

If, on the other hand, one of the forces was somehow greater than the other, the weight would oscillate more and more until some mechanical limit was reached, either dampening the motion or breaking the spring.

 

In physics, you might express this situation with something like this:

F(x)=-kx

 

where "x" is the measure of displacement along the axis of motion and "k" is the spring's coefficient. This is a natural consequence of Newton's F=ma (he actually expressed it as a=F/m but that's a topic for another thread...)

 

Edited February 22, 2016 by Brian

[Brian]

Correction of off-topic comment

 

Hmmm, I'm a little confused by what you might mean by "pure-yang steady-state." If the drift is related to stored-potential-energy (yang) becoming more used than it is returned into storage, how does it reach a "pure-yang steady-state?"

 

To me it feels like the drift is toward the creation of the 10,000 things, perhaps as related to our observation of the continual expansion of the universe.

 

If this creation-heavy drift is what is being marked, perhaps that is the key to knowing which methods to apply for readings.

I mangled the words -- you said yang->yin has greater probability than yin->yang and my point was that this imbalance of probabilities results in an imbalance of outcome, too. (I should have said "nearly pure-yin steady-state as the transitions are biased in that direction but I was typing in haste on a smartphone...)

 

[Marblehead]

Off topic random comment:

 

Leave my marbles alone.

[Brian]

Off topic random comment:

 

Leave my marbles alone.

I heard you'd lost them.

[Marblehead]

I heard you'd lost them.

I think it is more at people stole them but I can't remember.

[Daeluin]

Correction of off-topic comment

 

I mangled the words -- you said yang->yin has greater probability than yin->yang and my point was that this imbalance of probabilities results in an imbalance of outcome, too. (I should have said "nearly pure-yin steady-state as the transitions are biased in that direction but I was typing in haste on a smartphone...)

 

 

Reply to "off-topic" comments that are likely rather on-topic

 

Right - I'm wondering if the yarrow method was created with these imbalances not to influence the outcome, but to gain more accurate results by adjusting for natural imbalances. If there is indeed a overarching creation-tilted drift, and if we observe the expansion of the universe as some sort of overarching drift in the direction of expansion / creation (the dissipation of yang into yin), I wonder... how it reaches its, ah, maximum points of displacement. And presumably there would be signs of how / what would happen when things swing the other direction, so could we simply be looking for signs of 'universal contraction' in the wrong places?

 

[Brian]

Reply to "off-topic" comments that are likely rather on-topic

 

Right - I'm wondering if the yarrow method was created with these imbalances not to influence the outcome, but to gain more accurate results by adjusting for natural imbalances. If there is indeed a overarching creation-tilted drift, and if we observe the expansion of the universe as some sort of overarching drift in the direction of expansion / creation (the dissipation of yang into yin), I wonder... how it reaches its, ah, maximum points of displacement. And presumably there would be signs of how / what would happen when things swing the other direction, so could we simply be looking for signs of 'universal contraction' in the wrong places?

 

Seems reasonable to assume that the rate of change would not be uniform, either spatially or temporally. In the non-dual, the discussion stops making sense (both "spatial" and "temporal" break down) but in the mundane, local variances should be expected and should be dynamic. In fact, to maintain long-term stability, it seems reasonable to assume the restorative force is inversely proportional to the displacement from equilibrium. The question then becomes, how should the change in that displacement be described? If there is a delta between yin->yang and yang->yin, is that growing or shrinking? Can we speak about the acceleration or periodicity? Does a differential determined millennia ago hold today or is it misleading? Edited February 23, 2016 by Brian

[Daeluin]

So apparently Zhu Xi (Song dynasty) has a book, 易學啟蒙, which has been fully translated by Joseph Adler in Introduction to the Study of the Classic of Change. I've read Zhu Xi had a commentary on chapter 9 of the da zhuan / great commentary / 繫辭傳, in which he goes into the numerology behind the calculating of a line and why the yarrow stalk method is important even though at the time (Song) it had been falling out of use to the coin method.

 

There are four chapters:

1. The River Chart and the Lo Writing
2. The Original Drawing of the Trigrams
3. Explaining the Milfoil Stalks
4. Explaining the Prognostications of the Changes

 

So I'm guessing this is the book I heard about. I'll report back after I'm able to get / read a copy, if it adds any context to the question.

[Daeluin]

In the mean time I've started reading Douglas White's translation and commentary of chapter nine of the da zhuan. Shared here.

 

This is an excellent commentary!

[Lost in Translation]

On 2/22/2016 at 11:34 AM, Daeluin said:

So I'm curious about the probability of receiving a changing line in a casting.

 

From the wikipedia page is a nice chart with probabilities:

1. With both coins and milfoil there is a 50% chance of getting a yin or yang line.
2. With both coins and milfoil there is a 25% chance of getting a changing line.
3. Within a changing line:
   1. With coins it is equally probable for the change to be yin-to-yang or yang-to-yin.
   2. However with milfoil it is more probable for a yang line to change than for a yin line to change.

So it would appear that different casting methods draw on different principles to calculate change.

 

I figured I'd bump this thread. The difference in changing line probability among casting methods is, shall I say, interesting.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Lost in Translation

[OldDog]

I have read this thread  couple of times and I am not understsnding the premise that suggests a tendency toward a "yin steady state".

 

Doesn't that assume that any given hexagram will continue to transform until it reaches a "pure yin" state. How does that even happen? Each casting establishes a new hexagram independent of the previous casting right? So, there is no migration or accumulated affect that, given imbalance in probability, would tend toward a pure yin state.

 

Seems like the imbalance in likelihood of a changing line becoming yin over yang is in effect only for the one casting. Once the lines change they change to a stabile line and no further movment is anticipated.

 

What am I missing here.?

[Lost in Translation]

That comment bothered me too. I geeked out and created a spreadsheet that starts with 1 million yang lines and calculates the changes over 50 iterations using the yarrow stalk method and the coin method. After about 30 iterations the yarrow method settled on a steady 75% yin lines and 25% yang lines ratio. The coin method settled on a steady 50%/50% split. (I can send you the spreadsheet if you like. PM me.) From this it looks like the percentage of change simply determines the ratio of yang vs yin in a moving system over time and does not determine the aggregate total. In other words the universe will not decompose into pure yin. 

 

That said, the yarrow stalk method does suggest that the universe is composed predominantly of yin, whereas the coin method suggests yang and yin are perfectly balanced.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2018 by Lost in Translation
Corrected percentages (was 75% yang lines and 25% yin lines)

[wandelaar]

https://books.google.nl/books?id=cJfm_FO_TEAC&printsec=frontcover&dq=hacker+i+ching+handbook&hl=nl&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjojeKd6sjbAhVD0xQKHWeaDUsQ6wEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=probabilities&f=false

 

This book has much information on the probabilities of hexagrams with moving and/or static lines.

Edited June 10, 2018 by wandelaar

[Anzhi]

There is both a three and a two coin method of casting. Like the use of 16 objects/marbles the two coin method reporduces the probalities of the milfoil method.
https://www.onlineclarity.co.uk/learn/ways-to-consult-the-i-ching/2-coins/
The discussion as to how the probabilities reflect Yang/Yin qualities in life are very interesting (Yin will tend to remain at rest...Yang tends to activity and change more often) but are not spoken about in that manner really (perhaps indirectly though) in the Ta Chuan. The whole number thing is interrelated to months and shamanic type connections via the numerical path to "activating the ghosts and spirits", so there are varying  symbolisms with the whole milfoilprocess. "four seasons"..."unique lunar months"...the extreme of Ch'ien sticks is 260..the extreme of K'un  sticks is 144...this gives 360. Corresponds to days of the year." etc.
Ta Chuan is not an unquestionable "bible", it is an added commentary and ideas from long ago. 
Correspondences and holistic thinking drips throughout the Yi; this was how they sought to evoke the "spirit(s)" to see and understand the changes and possibilities. 
This is what is happening when we cast. While any random (three coin) method will bring forth a hexagram of value, (any hexagram has correspondences to the "ten thousand things"), if we believe in the fact of synchronicity then we will seek to "aid it' to appear clearer by as best tuning as possible, not only of the method but also of the mind-heart. I use both marbles and two coin method.
A funny memory was going to the toy shop to gather my different colored marbles in specific numbers,while the shop person thought I'd lost mine.  

Edited June 11, 2018 by Anzhi

[OldDog]

On 6/10/2018 at 12:21 AM, Lost in Translation said:

That said, the yarrow stalk method does suggest that the universe is composed predominantly of yin.

 

Funny you should phrase it that way. I recently watched a video having to do with dark matter - how, given the present state of understanding, science is unable to account for what it sees without the notion of dark matter - how the universe must be predominantly dark matter. But dark matter is spoken of in a positive active sense which does not at all seem to match with the notion of yin as we tend to talk about it. 

 

In another sense, yin is what allows room for yang to operate - a place for yang to express itself, to manifest in some manner. So, it makes sense that there should be ample space for the creative to work. TTC 11 comes to mind ...

 

Therefore by the existence of things we profit.
And by the non-existence of things we are served.

[Marblehead]

There is an excellent probability that things will change.  So good that I would even bet money on it.

 

[OldDog]

9 hours ago, Anzhi said:

... if we believe in the fact of synchronicity ...

 

I have always been a bit skeptical of synchronicity. I think we tend to attach more significance to it than may be warranted. If it has meaning, it may only be in whether we choose action based on it or not. This view is probably what prevents me from consulting the I Ching more frequently. 

[OldDog]

42 minutes ago, Marblehead said:

There is an excellent probability that things will change.  So good that I would even bet money on it.

 

Ah, but would you bet on a particular outcome?  ; )

[Marblehead]

1 hour ago, OldDog said:

 

Ah, but would you bet on a particular outcome?  ; )

Hehehe.  Excellent come-back.  To your question:  No.  I have never been able to foretell the future.  I can't even win a lottery play.

 

[zafrogzen]

6 hours ago, OldDog said:

I have always been a bit skeptical of synchronicity. I think we tend to attach more significance to it than may be warranted. If it has meaning, it may only be in whether we choose action based on it or not. This view is probably what prevents me from consulting the I Ching more frequently.

 

Synchronicity makes more sense when it is viewed from the standpoint of dependent origination -- where everything is seen spontaneously arising in the present moment and each of us is dependent on everything else for our existence. In that case, cause and effect is not so simple and straightforward as our linear models presume. The I Ching can be a vehicle for developing intuition and insight into this Great Mystery but it is not for everyone.

 

As for the original thread. I sensed the probabilities with the yarrow method were skewed. I didn't know exactly how, but it didn't feel right. If I understand this thread correctly the probabilities in the coin method are evenly balanced while the yarrow (and marble) method are skewed towards yin. Why that is better or more realistic is not so clear. It seems to me that if yin and yang are equal and in balance, as in the yin/yang symbol, then they can revolve and change from one to the other. Otherwise, if one was more likely than the other, we'd eventually end up, as suggested here, with one side only (Yin).

 

Be that as it may, the three coin method has worked really well for me over the years. Almost any method could produce good results if persisted in long enough but using three pennies is very simple, direct and aptly symbolic.

[Anzhi]

16 hours ago, OldDog said:

 

I have always been a bit skeptical of synchronicity. I think we tend to attach more significance to it than may be warranted. If it has meaning, it may only be in whether we choose action based on it or not. This view is probably what prevents me from consulting the I Ching more frequently. 

Thank you Old Dog.
Yes, not an uncommon view. I share a lot of it too, being highly respectful of science. But like many things there are varieties of what is labelled "synchronicity", including what is so-called but isn't. But however we understand it, and I have a read a book or two about this fascinating subject, it is a "phenomenon" of some sort that strikes 'casters' often when working with the Yi. In many cases I am now of the view it is a particular way our primate patterning searching mind works. Synchronicities are defined by a coincidence of meanings and meanings are projected by us on the outer world. It is no wonder we see so many in the Yi, so full of symbols and allusions in a language of multi-meaning ideographs.

This in no way demeans the Yi or the phenomenon, but simply explains how it can be so intuitively helpful and uncovering and "furthering" our quests. Nor am I beyond wondering how sometimes it really is so spot-on in a casting, with even the very words of your question or concern front and centre and the most helpful appropriate allusions. Not always but often. And even if we have the most detailed explanation of causation of the phenomenon, the process and helpfulness of this book and its structure and ideas keep it alive and people responding to its process of "divination", which to me now is just a word we attach to the process. Intuitively the ancients evolved with it and their applications evolved with it, and by that mysterious process of evolution came up with a brilliant process of deep intuitive encounter with life and one's mind and expanded perceptions.   
  

Edited June 12, 2018 by Anzhi