Hillary and Trump

[Brian]

Those who are genuinely curious about the jobs/employment situation in the US can gain significant insight by exploring three things -- first is the cognitive dissonance between official unemployment numbers and workforce participation numbers (hint: what happens if an unemployed person is without work for a long time and/or stops looking?), second is the relationship between reported job creation numbers and immigration numbers (pay particular attention to the impact on women and blacks here), and third is the shift over the last few years in the ratio of full-time to part-time job creation (for bonus points, explore the role of the ACA in this change).

[Apech]

Those who are genuinely curious about the jobs/employment situation in the US can gain significant insight by exploring three things -- first is the cognitive dissonance between official unemployment numbers and workforce participation numbers (hint: what happens if an unemployed person is without work for a long time and/or stops looking?), second is the relationship between reported job creation numbers and immigration numbers (pay particular attention to the impact on women and blacks here), and third is the shift over the last few years in the ratio of full-time to part-time job creation (for bonus points, explore the role of the ACA in this change).

 

 

Thank you for the instructions.  Any chance you just tell us the answers?

[Brian]

Thank you for the instructions.  Any chance you just tell us the answers?

Sure!

 

The administration fabricates unemployment numbers.

Job growth has been less that the foreign addition to the workforce.

People are systematically being driven into lower-paying jobs with less benefits.

[Karl]

Sure!

 

The administration fabricates unemployment numbers.

Job growth has been less that the foreign addition to the workforce.

People are systematically being driven into lower-paying jobs with less benefits.

And [i ask rhetorically] is this why tax receipts are at such a low ebb and social security and healthcare is consuming virtually all of it creating an ever increasing debt ?

 

Could it be that goosing the economy with cheap money has benefitted the very wealthiest in a miss guided Neo Keynsian attempt to create 'trickle down economics through consumption stimulation of the very wealthiest ?

 

Could it be that the middle classes have been called on to pay for the workforce attrition that has resulted from Government policies seemingly designed to destroy high paying jobs and turn the USA into a ghetto under financialisation ?

 

Could it be that the Government, it's central bank and its puppet press have been lying about the recovery ? Shock horror.

[Wells]

.

Edited March 2, 2017 by Wells

[dawei]

It seems a lot of people woke up to realize they are living a simple realization:

 

“WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY AND HE IS US.”

[Aetherous]

It seems a lot of people woke up to realize they are living a simple realization:

 

“WE HAVE MET THE ENEMY AND HE IS US.”

 

If only they would realize that.

[Wells]

.

Edited March 2, 2017 by Wells

[Brian]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/11/15/states-are-a-relic-of-the-past-its-time-to-get-rid-of-them

[redcairo]

Dust, in my thread 100 Days 1.2 I just posted a big thing that is all about job loss numbers just over the last 15 years. I did my best to "show" you -- we were having a discussion that ran into the same point in that thread -- but it took forever so I probably can't do that very often lol. 

 

RC

[redcairo]

Now I'm not sure if you can get away with that one actually pertaining to the theme on the thread. :-)

[MooNiNite]

Dude,

what's the source of the Bill Clinton pic???

 

lol facebook. do a google image search

[joeblast]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/11/15/states-are-a-relic-of-the-past-its-time-to-get-rid-of-them

it began with the 17th

 

well no, really it began with the civil war when big fed wanted to just keep rolling unimpeded, and declared all citizens slaves with the 14th amendment

 

 

(with lincoln imprisoning journalists who wrote about said trampling in a negative light)

Edited November 17, 2016 by joeblast

[redcairo]

I once said in college that I believed the Southern states were in the right.

 

It only led to an argument that was a little bit like the modern left situations: I kept trying to talk about federalism and everyone insisted I was supporting prejudice and slavery.

 

History is written by the victors, as they say.

 

RC

Edited November 17, 2016 by redcairo

[dust]

I'm not here to teach you economics. If you want to know the kind of detail you are asking for, then I require payment. I will teach you if you want, but I'm not about to do so on a forum. I've shown you why the stats are skewed. You are saying to me that you don't believe me, so fine, that's your look out and you must make your own decisions in light of what you believe to be true. I'm saying that if the scenery appears to be going past the car window slowly and you have just been overtaken by an old guy on a bike, then you aren't likely doing 100mph no matter what the speedometer reads.

 

If you want to believe something else then you are free to do so, but I can't spend the time to take you through something that took me over 4 years of study in a couple of posts. It would be pointless to show you several hundred reports by the FED and it's committee, nor to point you to the stock market over valued public share issues against debt leverage ratios and profitability unless you can put it all together.

 

You said "better to look at productivity, interest rates and debt (both public and private)", and I asked very clearly for evidence -- actual numbers -- not for an explanation of what these things are, not for a teacher, not for a condescending attitude and more claims about how knowledgeable you are, but for you to actually participate in a discussion using sources.

 

One thing you and many others on this forum (and in the world at large) have in common: you have many strong opinions but are never willing to make any effort to back them up.

 

The homework is yours. If you claim something, you should be willing and able to show evidence for it. I do it. And sometimes I look up the information you hint at, and find out that it doesn't say what you claimed it does, and realize my time has been wasted. So I'm not playing that game any more.

 

Except this one last time..

 

 

Start with asking why the FED has not increased interest rates by anything greater than 0.25 % in 8 years, if it's 'data dependent' and the most important headline number is the NFP number. Ask why the FED sits on an enormous balance sheet that it shows no desire to shrink. Ask why it is paying the banks interest in a zero bound environment.

 

These figures are correct, I'm not making them up, they are reported widely in the FOMC minutes. Why haven't the rates increased ??

 

In quick response to this and your previous claim that productivity has fallen etc,

 

Yes, I'm aware that the target figure is 0.25-0.5%. This is the first time you've actually mentioned it, though -- this is the whole point. There's a lot more data you could be linking to, but you want to make me do all the work -- on my side of the fence and yours -- perhaps in the hope that I'll get bored and just give up or agree with you. You want me to see your point without actually knowing exactly what your point is.

 

Anyway.. as a simple man who understands not economics..

 

It looks like productivity has been rising since the recession, and NFP has risen and remained relatively stable.

 

And so you ask, then why has the rate not changed for so long? And you think the only answer is that nobody's actually finding well-paying jobs, or that illegals are taking all the jobs?

 

I'll give you a hint this time: take a look at the years following the Great Depression.

Edited November 18, 2016 by dust

[redcairo]

Alright now, speaking of Clinton vs. Trump. Sort of.

 

This entire speech sounds just like it's out of Trump's own stated mission --

 

It got big applause and a standing ovation in 1995 --

 

And it was delivered by Bill Clinton.

 

https://www.facebook.com/Tbailey6/posts/10154656041372158

 

This is a brief video of the speech, but facebook and won't embed.

 

Edited to add: transcript below.

 

RC

Edited November 19, 2016 by redcairo

[redcairo]

I made a transcript. - RC

 

 

President Bill Clinton, STATE OF THE UNION Speech, US Capitol, 1995, televised by C-SPAN
(excerpt)

All Americans, not only in the states most heavily affected but in every place in this country are rightly disturbed by the large number of illegal aliens entering our country.
The jobs they hold might otherwise be held by citizens or legal immigrants.
The public services they use impose burdens on our taxpayers.
That's why our administration has moved aggressively to secure our borders more, by hiring a record number of new border guards.
By deporting twice as many criminal aliens as ever before.
By cracking down on illegal hiring.

By barring welfare benefits to illegal aliens.
In the budget I present to you we will try to do more to speed the deportation of illegal aliens who are arrested for crimes.
To better identify illegal aliens in the workplace, as recommended by the commission headed by former congresswoman Barbara Jordan.*
We are a nation of immigrants.
But we are also a nation of laws.
It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years and We. Must. Do. More. to stop it.

 

{standing ovation}

 

Useful trivia: from Wiki: The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that, in the 1980s, the net advance of the U.S. undocumented immigrant population was at 130,000 per year, increasing to 450,000 per year from 1990 through 1994, further increasing to 750,000 per year from 1995 through 1999, and staying at 700,000–850,000+ per year since about 2000.

 

That's ~15.4 MILLION between then and now. - RC
 

So 21 years later the problem is massively, massively larger, both in overall incoming and in everything associated of course -- crime, costs, etc. -- and this was a big enough deal to be part of a state of the union speech back then.

 

* Barbara Jordan:

 

 

 

 

So what happened? A black democrat civil rights senator leads the official plan, the democratic president takes at least one or more of her committee's recommendations for the official presidential plan, and that's to deal with the problem PRIOR to 21 YEARS MORE of 750,000 per year from 1995 through 1999, and staying at 700,000–850,000+ per year since about 2000.

 

But if all the efforts we've made so far still have these insane numbers, building a wall to assist border security is....

 

... racist? nationalist? fascist?  How about "sane?" How about "finally management is competent?" How about "waking up to the reality that what we've been doing isn't working at all?"

 

I'm reminded of a saying:

 

The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago.

The second-best time is now.

-- Chinese proverb

 

RC

Edited November 19, 2016 by redcairo

[redcairo]

Ah, and the perfect addition, Hillary herself -- HOW IS IT POSSIBLE the media has convinced everybody Trump is the anti-christ for talking about this stuff when both Hillary AND Bill -- and she is even specific to talking about wall/fence/tech no less -- have talked about this publicly???

 

 

RC

[MooNiNite]

Dang, this was a powerplay by Trump

 

[dawei]

Now I'm not sure if you can get away with that one actually pertaining to the theme on the thread. :-)

 

~~~ Admin Comments ~~~

 

We're at 139 pages but would likely be at 140 if we were not hiding more and more posts like naked pictures of Bill Clinton and joking with Nazi pics. 

 

I'd rather keep this out of the pit as we should be able to discuss politics without restoring to 139 pages.  It seems we should let some threads die a natural death and let past events go.

The recent spat of off-topic threads has caught staff attention and we continue to discuss it.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[wilfred]

pizzagate is gaining a lot of steam and going viral. lots more evidence and connections being found, as well as moves to censor and remove the information from the interwebs. seems obvious this conspiracy is for real and sickening to the core. has to be the biggest scandal of all time, implicates all levels of western government in ritual child abuse, pedophilia and trafficking. david icke was right!

[Aetherous]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDc8PVCvfKs

Evidence of mass voter fraud. Warning: a brief part where someone uses crude language.

Edited November 21, 2016 by Aetherous

[Aetherous]

pizzagate is gaining a lot of steam and going viral. lots more evidence and connections being found, as well as moves to censor and remove the information from the interwebs. seems obvious this conspiracy is for real and sickening to the core. has to be the biggest scandal of all time, implicates all levels of western government in ritual child abuse, pedophilia and trafficking. david icke was right!

 

Admin just posted a reminder that this subject can't be discussed here due to it being about child exploitation, which is a topic that's against forum rules. Good to know that at least at some places, like TDB, it's not true censorship.

[joeblast]

Admin just posted a reminder that this subject can't be discussed here due to it being about child exploitation, which is a topic that's against forum rules. Good to know that at least at some places, like TDB, it's not true censorship.

I love how such a large percentage of people are putting the existence of that out of their minds like it was just too disgusting to even think about, much less think about and make the connection that the child & money trail goes right through the clintons and george soros.

 

 

I think its asinine that when things about that are posted, some of it gets hidden or deleted away, because....what, people shouldnt see how utterly fkn reprehensible these people are?

 

 

These assholes should be tarred and feathered, literally.

 

 

I guess some folks dont find pedophilia & child trafficking to be the utter disgusting horror that it is?  I find it so cruel and unusual that I wind up thinking cruel and unusual punishment for them is fitting.

Edited November 21, 2016 by joeblast

[dawei]

I love how such a large percentage of people are putting the existence of that out of their minds like it was just too disgusting to even think about, much less think about and make the connection that the child & money trail goes right through the clintons and george soros.

 

 

I think its asinine that when things about that are posted, some of it gets hidden or deleted away, because....what, people shouldnt see how utterly fkn reprehensible these people are?

 

 

These assholes should be tarred and feathered, literally.

 

 

I guess some folks dont find pedophilia & child trafficking to be the utter disgusting horror that it is?  I find it so cruel and unusual that I wind up thinking cruel and unusual punishment for them is fitting.

 

There are plenty of places to go participate in it on other websites.   TDB doesn't need to be one of those that has the topic.   And it has nothing to do with cruel or utter disgusting horror.  As an issue, it is a non-issue to me.   But it does fall within the rules setup by Sean and my interpretation is it does't belong here.

 

See here:

http://www.thedaobums.com/topic/42558-off-topic-and-rules-reminder/