Financial tips for the bums

[Aetherous]

4 hours ago, rideforever said:

The stock market is totally rigged.

 

I think that's very true, especially for people getting into trading. But with long term investing, like multiple decades, the market has a tendency to grow by about 10% each year on average. Not to say all stocks will grow that much...only the market as a whole, like DJIA or S&P500.

 

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And what will you buy with your millions anyway ?

 

I view money as a means of survival, and also the primary means to be able to do the things I want in life...so it's very important. I plan on buying my freedom, and bringing others with me.

 

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How many years you have left - you want to spend them playing these games ?

 

I'm just 33, so I have quite a few years left. I've spent most of my years already doing things that I enjoy, and will continue to do so...but these days I have a strong yearning to be free, and that will never be the case so long as I'm one paycheck away from being in the financial hole.

 

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Do you hate the universe that much ?

 

I love the universe a lot...even money! Even myself!

Edited August 11, 2018 by Aetherous

[Aetherous]

9 minutes ago, thelerner said:

I think the stock market is a way to grow your money, probably not to get rich or make millions but grow it 5 to 10% a year.

 

Totally agree. It's just setting up money for retirement, when you can't work but somehow need to live. Social security isn't a guarantee...some people don't have pensions, or any other retirement accounts.

To me it seems a way to potentially get rich quickly, not decades down the line, is with passive income from rentals. Or other ways...but from what I know so far, that seems the easiest to get into (versus owning or buying a business).

[rideforever]

I used to make software for Casinos.   

The product designers would analyse the behaviour of gamblers, their drives, thoughts, types, and so on.
The particular way they were addicted, their neuro-synaptic-stimulus-response pathways.

People who talk about the stock market sound identical, the same addictive  destructive carnal mentality.

The universe will respond to your approach to life.

 

Perhaps if you personally know a company and invest in it, it might be different.
No charts, no analysis, just a personal or gut feeling, trust and commitment.
Then it might be different.
Does anyone do that anymore ?

[Aetherous]

7 hours ago, rideforever said:

I used to make software for Casinos.   

The product designers would analyse the behaviour of gamblers, their drives, thoughts, types, and so on.
The particular way they were addicted, their neuro-synaptic-stimulus-response pathways.

People who talk about the stock market sound identical, the same addictive  destructive carnal mentality.

The universe will respond to your approach to life.

 

You should learn more about long term investing in total markets. It's totally incomparable to gambling, or anything addictive or destructive.

 

Learning more is what this thread is about. Check out the book I recommended, "Millionaire Teacher".

 

7 hours ago, rideforever said:

Perhaps if you personally know a company and invest in it, it might be different.
No charts, no analysis, just a personal or gut feeling, trust and commitment.
Then it might be different.
Does anyone do that anymore ?

 

They do. That's the way most people lose money in the stock market, and is what I think would be akin to gambling. I would prefer to call it "donating", since I wouldn't expect to see the money back (although it could come back sometimes).

Two major problems with the suggested approach: 1) it's not diversified, so when the business fails, or the value of the stock decreases, your money simply goes away with it. 2) It's based on gut feelings rather than something reliable.

What's reliable? Some smart people are good at investing in individual companies. But they don't do it based on how they feel that day...they do it based on things like the actual value of the company - and if it's undervalued in the market, then it's more wise to invest in that one because it's likely that the value of the stock will increase.

Too much work and there's still the chance of being wrong with this approach...but for instance, Warren Buffett made his money this way.

So for the rest of us who aren't as smart, who don't actually take the time to learn about individual companies and know how to analyse them...this approach is a losing strategy. It's similar to being the gambler who feels lucky, despite the odds being in favor of the casino.

For planning for retirement, which is the opposite of a behavior that's "destructive", go with long term total market investing.

[Aetherous]

I just made this wage calculator on Excel...I'm sure it's been done before, but oh well.

When job searching, I've noticed that sometimes a listing will give a weekly pay only...sometimes hourly only...sometimes a yearly salary only. At least personally, it's not so easy to put these numbers into context.

Let's say if a job posting told you the hourly wage. When you type it into this calculator, you can easily see what the yearly salary would be, how much you'll have in a month (in gross pay, before taxes etc), or in a week. Or if they only told you the yearly salary, you could easily see what the hourly wage would equate to, etc.

It's good to compare job opportunities in light of contextualizing the numbers.

I also added a highlighted portion that reminds us what the average person makes in the US...hopefully that acts as motivation to find better work, rather than just going with the abundance of minimum to living wage jobs. It's interesting to type in your local living wage and compare that to the national average...living wage is still way below the average.

Here it is:

 

wage calculator.xlsx

Edited August 11, 2018 by Aetherous

[joeblast]

if one is already in the stock market, one should be limiting exposure.  if one isnt in the stock market, one should not even think about entering right now.

 

one should also be hedging against zero in shiny ways that they can hold in their own hands that cant be confiscated.

[Aetherous]

I think you're right, it really seems to be market top right now...although I thought that advice was right 2 years ago also, and it wasn't.

At that time I started using Investopedia's stock simulator, and today it's sitting pretty at 10% returns, despite the corrections this past year.

[Aetherous]

How to figure out your monthly budget, aka how to be a big boy

 

No one taught me this, such as my parents...my friends don't speak about it...it was never a subject taught in school and I have a master's degree...so it's being talked about here for the benefit of everyone who reads it. It might seem obvious and not even worth covering to some people who are already adept, but I can attest that not everyone knows the basics of personal finances. I'm just learning this stuff shortly before I share here, so if I make mistakes please correct me. Okay...

Step one in figuring out your budget is to estimate what you'll owe on taxes. This seems to be the best calculator for that in the US for this upcoming year's taxes (after the recent Bill). It might not be 100% accurate, as some calculators have slight variations, but it'll be close.

From that same website, get the result and find out what your monthly "Take Home Pay" is. If you get paychecks, you can also simply use the amount you get in a month. I think if you're paid biweekly, it's good to multiply that by 26 to get the yearly cash amount (52 weeks in a year divided in half for the sake of paychecks arriving every other week is 26), then divide by 12 to find out monthly cash. If your paycheck gives more cash per month than your estimated take home pay amount, I think it's best to just go with the estimated number and save the remainder for paying taxes. If the paycheck gives less cash than the estimated take home, that's okay. Now for the actual budgeting...

 

It's ideal if 50% of that monthly take home goes toward your Needs, 20% goes toward Savings, and 30% is left over for your Wants.

All of your real monthly expenses should be added up...it's good to go over the previous few months of bank invoices and see where your money really went. Sometimes it's easy to think of rent payments, car payments, cell phone bill when listing our expenses...but it's easy to forget about Netflix or Microsoft Office monthly payments, for example. Put down what the expense is for, such as car insurance payments, and put the exact monthly cost next to that...add them all up and find the total expenses amount.

If that total is more than your Needs, take the remainder out of your Wants. If that's happening, it becomes clear how nice it would be to save on expenses like groceries or housing, because it frees up a lot of cash for doing whatever you want with. Sometimes it's possible to have next to zero money for wants...if you're already decently frugal, then you know it's good to look for a higher paying job.

For your Savings, 1/3rd should go toward an emergency fund...1/3 should go toward retirement...1/3 should go toward paying off debts. When paying off debts, you can either choose to pay off the one that is the largest amount due each month which will help free up some monthly cash for you...or pay off the one with the highest interest rate, which could save money if paying things off over a longer period.

If you have credit card debt, consider the interest rates. They're probably higher than return rates of the stock market (which we can ballpark at 10%). If you're investing during a time that you're paying off credit cards, it would be more effective to use that retirement money toward paying off debt. If the debt has no interest, then save toward retirement at the same time.

Once debts are paid off, 1/2 can go to the emergency fund and 1/2 to retirement.

 

In terms of retirement...In other posts in this thread I already discussed my personal opinion on stock market investing, which is Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold strategy using Vanguard (because of low fees) ETFs. I personally think that a 401k is a horrible strategy for people who don't have upper class incomes, even though it's pre-tax...if you choose to do a 401k, it lowers your monthly take home pay, and it isn't as easy to choose your own ETFs. If you still have at least 3 decades before you'll start thinking of retirement, it's best to have a very aggressive portfolio with no bonds...that's my view, because bonds have such low interest rates that they won't help you accumulate as much money, and you don't need the stability since you're not withdrawing anytime soon.

There are other forms of retirement investments besides the stock market, which may even perform better if you're smart and up to the challenge of learning how to use them. If an investment has some risk to it, if there is the potential to lose money, you should diversify by also adding other types of investments.

For the emergency fund, it should cover 3-6 months of your real expenses (which you already figured out above). This is essential in case you get fired, have unforeseen expenses like having to pay out car insurance deductibles for example, etc. It also helps you not use credit cards for these emergencies, which rack up debt that interest is paid on. So, it's good to think of the emergency fund as another non-negotiable expense each month, just like rent is.

The emergency fund should be in a high-interest accruing savings account in order to keep up with inflation (I will probably personally use Marcus by Goldman Sachs). These types of accounts sometimes allow 6 withdrawals per month, so if you have an emergency, it's good to keep that in mind and probably take out more than you need. Other types of accounts aren't so good for holding your emergency funds.

So to cover the Savings category again...I personally think it's wise to start with putting half of it into emergency fund, and half into paying off debts. Pay off the largest debt first in order to save money. Once debts are paid off, put that half into retirement investments, as you continue to build your emergency fund. Once your emergency fund reaches 3-6 months of your total monthly expenses, you can put the entirety of your Savings allotment toward retirement investing.

 

Now that you have your personal budget, you should calculate your debt to income ratio. This is found by taking your total monthly expenses divided by your gross monthly salary (not the amount found on the tax website above, but the amount before any taxes are taken out). You'll get a number that's a percentage...if it's above 50%, that's dangerous. If it's 40-50%, that's considered financially stressful. If it's 20-40%, that's considered average. If it's under 20%, that's excellent. This number can reveal that we need to increase our income, and decrease our expenses. Sometimes lenders look at the DTI ratio to determine how well you can manage debt.

Another calculation to understand your personal financial health is finding your net worth. To figure this out, you need to know your assets and liabilities. Assets are what you own (the fair market value of those things)...for instance, if you own a house and have a mortgage, the fair market value of the house is your asset and the mortgage is your liability. Liabilities are things that you owe. So just make two columns...what you own for assets, and what you owe in debts for liabilities. Net worth = assets - liabilities.

Knowing that assets are what determine our financial health, it's good to look into how to accumulate more assets (google searching different types of assets is enlightening)...and knowing that liabilities are debt and can decrease our net worth, it's good to think of how to pay those off. To get more complex into this, you can look into what good and bad assets are, and what good and bad liabilities are.

For instance, you can own a house and rent it out to people, earning more from their rent than you make for the monthly payment on the mortgage, which is having a positive cash flow from it. The fair market value of the house is your asset, the rent is adding to your income, and the liability is your mortgage that you owe. In this case, because of it being an asset (but only when you sell it), and because of it increasing your income, it's a "good liability". A bad liability would be something like credit card debt, which isn't an asset (you can't sell it), and which doesn't increase your income. A good asset can be sold for a profit or generates income...a bad asset could be sold at a loss, and doesn't generate income.

Okay, so that was the basics. I took a lot of it from one of the books I recommended earlier in this thread, "The Infographic Guide to Personal Finance"...but this post has a lot of ideas not directly from that book, too.

[Aetherous]

For getting started in stocks and ETFs, M1 Finance is pretty cool...especially if you're working with stocks that pay a dividend, and you do DRIP. M1 uses fractional shares, and each time your money (such as from dividends) hits $10, it adds that money to your fractional shares...which can help compounding interest work more in your favor. For instance, instead of $500 earning 7% interest, it'll be $510 earning that...over time, that becomes significant.

But I'm not 100% sure that their rebalancing is something I'd personally want. You set up a "pie" based on allocation percentages, and they always adjust to keep those percentages, for instance by putting all money into the one that's underperforming so as to get that allocation back up to where it should be. Not sure about the long term ramifications of this, if it would turn out better or worse. It'd be nice if they had an option to simply split your money into your preferred percentages (for instance so that underperforming ones get 20% of $100 you put in, if you set that portion of the pie for 20%), rather than always trying to maintain them (so that underperforming ones get all of the $100 you put in, in order to raise it back up to 20% of the pie).

[Aetherous]

http://www.richdad.com/apps-games/cashflow-classic

 

I've been playing this online game a lot lately. It's free to play as much as you want.

 

Through playing the game I've gotten a lot of insights for how to win it faster, with taking less risks. I can translate those insights over to my own personal finances...

I've copied the game's financial statement into an excel document, and will routinely have my own numbers in it. I think this will help see the big picture better, and it fits with my long term goal (which is to have enough passive monthly income to cover over twice the amount of my monthly expenses...to be financially free).

Here are some personal insights I've gotten from playing the game...but it's best to come to your own insights:

1) Pay off high monthly payment debts ASAP. In real life, these would be stuff like credit cards. Think about this: you could purchase an asset with a cash flow of $150 per month and that would seem great...but the effect would be basically equal if you simply paid off your cards so that you're no longer making $150 in payments each month. The same amount of cash is freed up, and it requires no risk of making some investment.

 

2) First get to what I call "emergency freedom", which is where you have more cash+savings available than your monthly expenses amount (if you spend $1200 per month in expenses, having $1400 in checking). So if an unforeseen expense came up...let's say car breaking down in real life...you could pay for its repairs in full and not go into the negative. Anyone who has overdrawn from their bank knows the negative spiral you can get on with that...being charged $35 fees for each failed transaction, when you already have no money! So yes, first step is to always try to make sure you have "emergency freedom"...and to quickly save up again in case you have to use that money.

 

3) It's risky to invest at all when you only have "emergency freedom"...because then what you invest takes you back into the danger zone of risking a negative balance. It's good to save up for "downpayment freedom", where you have enough to invest and still have extra that can cover a full month of expenses. For instance, if there's a $3000 downpayment required for an asset you want, your monthly expenses are $1200, and you have $4300 in the bank...you then have "downpayment freedom" and can invest more safely.

 

4) If taking out a loan to help pay for a downpayment, make sure the monthly cash flow is greater than the monthly loan payment. Also, make sure that next "month" you'll have more than enough to afford paying off the loan. Keep in mind that in real life, the cash flow isn't guaranteed. Tenants in a rental could decide to not pay rent. So it's riskier to take out loans for purchasing assets, but it also lets you be able to afford better sources of passive income.

 

5) It's not so wise to donate to charity when you're still in the rat race...because that's taking away money that could be going to purchase assets, and help get out of the rat race quicker. When you're in the fast track, then I think donations help you make more money...I think this translates to the real world by people saving on their taxes through charitable donations, which isn't enough to justify for someone who's nearly broke. Also, when a rich person donates money, it's usually a lot more than a poor person is able to...so while some people might not like to hear advice of "don't donate to charity yet", it does have some logic to it.

 

6) Your "payday" is your monthly income minus monthly expenses...and it's good to get that number higher by reducing expenses and increasing incomes. Higher payday = more opportunity to invest in passive income streams. There is what I call the "payday freedom" number, which is where your payday amount is greater than your monthly expenses amount. Achieving this helps with sudden emergencies not taking any toll, and paying off loans more easily.

 

7) Selling an asset (like a house) here and there can be good, it frees up tons of cash for different investments. This is actually the fastest way to win the game, I've found. In the real world, I think HELOC and cash out refinancing would be similar without having the need to sell your asset.

 

8) The biggest disparity in my thinking between the game and real life is viewing the money in my bank

account as being available to spend on what I want. In the game, the sole purpose of playing is to get more and more passive income sources, and expenditures that come up are viewed as a hindrance. In real life, there are many things we want, and spending on them isn't viewed so negatively. I need to view my personal finances like I view the financial statement in this game.

 

9) The game is based on "financial freedom" being when your passive income is greater than your expenses, even if by only $1. I personally call this the "rat race freedom number". But if you know about personal budgeting, you know that expenses are ideally allotted at 50% of your income, with the other 20% being for savings, and 30% for wants. No one can live by simply paying the necessary expenses and having nothing left over. So, despite the game being the way it is, in real life I will shoot for having enough passive income to cover my expenses twice over...I call that the "REAL freedom number".

Edited September 8, 2018 by Aetherous

[Aetherous]

This one's for the younger bums who are trying to figure out whether to go to college or not, or if they're in college, to figure out what to graduate as...

 

There's truth to that meme. Many types of college degrees won't really help you out much, and you'll find yourself only qualified to get generally horrible jobs that anyone without a degree could get.

There are some good career paths that will take someone with any kind of Bachelor's degree, but they are rare and usually aren't the best opportunities.

Yet there are career paths which depend on having a Bachelor's (at least), which are great in terms of ability of finding work and good pay. It's important to be smart, because your choice will either take you to a place of success or failure. People might try to tell you that college is a time to explore, learn, and figure it all out on your own, so it's not necessary to have a career path chosen yet...but it's also a time when you can rack up student loan debt, spend 4+ years of your life, after which you will be sick of school, and wind up not being able to earn a good living despite all of that. Don't let it be time wasted.

When figuring out your future, you should spend as much time as it takes digging through Indeed and Glassdoor, looking at what all of the jobs out there require for KSAs (Knowledge, Skills, Abilities), as well as their qualifications. This research should take up a majority of your free time...it's boring and annoying to do, but it's essential...it takes a while to make sense of what you're looking at, and to get a feel for how things are out there. Let's say 500 hours will start to give you a good idea. Look in your local area, in a state you want to live, in a city you think would be nice.

Here are two examples that I've personally found of decent career paths: nurse, and CPA. Hospitals seem to almost always be hiring nurses everywhere you look. They are paid decent even without a higher degree.

And when you get out into the real world, you see that everything depends on businesses...and businesses always need their taxes done, as does any individual that earns money (which everyone has to). So you can easily find a CPA job at most times in most places. The first step on that career path is a Bachelor's degree in Finance, although you could do that one with just 150 credit hours of certain courses.

There are generally tests you have to pass after getting your degree, and then licenses you have to get, etc. So there is more work to do after school. And it's usually good to have at least a Master's degree these days. You will see if jobs require it or not when you do your research. But the way of our society seems to always be pushing toward the higher degrees. Keep in mind - the higher degree will really only matter when searching for a job in your field of work. So you have to be certain when starting out on your career path that you will want to do that job...because you'll spend 4+ years getting your Bachelor's, 1-3 years getting your Master's...around 7 years will have gone by, and you will have changed in that time. So, it's a hard thing to ask of someone who is 18-25, but it's how our society works: you need to have yourself figured out.

CPA and nurse aren't the only two good career paths, they are just examples. Another example is being a manager...many places like their managers to have at least a Bachelor's, although it's not always required. I've personally found a few manager training programs, like at The Buckle, or Menards. They will require you to be flexible with your time and location, moving where they need you...but they pay is good once you're through the training.

Stay there for 2-5 years, and then find a better position...having managerial experience can land you in some really good paying positions. Six figure jobs. Some amazing companies that you can find (if you research high paying companies) will pay their employees $300,000+...very rare.

Speaking of high paying jobs, tech jobs are another thing. That requires starting out on the right foot, getting your Bachelor's in that field. There are some low paying tech jobs, and high paying ones...you have to really do a lot of research into the differences, and know where you're aiming to go. Even in a company that pays high salaries for tech jobs, you have to start out at the bottom of the ladder, and work hard to get up to where you want to be.

So, look at all of the requirements that jobs out there have...figure out what's very common, and what careers tend to have the highest salaries (and are jobs that you could live with doing).

Another option besides college is getting into the skilled trades. There are many apprenticeships, where you'll start out at average pay but then quickly work your way up to earning more than most college grads. These programs typically pay for themselves, and you won't have huge student loans afterward...which is very smart. The only thing is - you have to stay in that line of work. So you should ask local companies if you can job shadow or talk to them about what it's like...see for yourself what the job entails, and if it's something you would want to do.

Always be looking out there for opportunities. "Luck is where preparation meets opportunity" said Seneca. Lincoln said, "Give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe." If you want good luck in your life, most of your time should be spent figuring this stuff out, as soon as possible.

[Aetherous]

Really good advice for how to leave a job (not ruin your financial situation):

 

 

...

 

Another idea about jobs/careers: when doing research on different careers, go to Quora and do a search for those different careers you think of. You will probably find that other people have already asked, for instance, "What is it like to be a lawyer?" Experts or people in those lines of work respond and give personal answers, which can really give you a better idea than most other sources.

It's usually a good idea to get first hand advice and opinions from experienced people...one of the best ways to learn about things. So, Quora can help with that.

[dawei]

Ok, so I see the turn went to the stock market... my wife has played the chinese stock market for 20 years..  and was hesitant to do the US market... so we are doing it together..  I know data.   And I did mutual funds before.  So Our approach is, I find the hot stock of the next day, she researches it (on chinese software as it is much better)... then she decides.  I'm more flamboyant, risky, and stupid.  

 

Across two days, the Dow went down 700, but we made $300... next day we lost $200 cuz we jumped into a few stocks with earnings reports a few days away.  Lesson learned, bad idea... I am re-focusing now.   

 

Retail, Macy's, JC Pennys, Dillard, Williams-Sonoma, Vitamin SHoppe, etc... all this week came out...    It was a mixed reaction from the market.  I learned alot from prediction as great news doesn't mean a great stock reaction.   We adjusted today and got back all our money to be at $400.    

 

It is a very challenging thing to try but here is what we are doing.  Ignore the DOW... that is the major players.  Find the small players who report earnings and dividend reports.    My wife still likes chinese stocks in the US markets.   She jumps in and out... She said to me today, I always sell at a profit.   Today is no different.   

 

But Macy's is killing us... so need to ride it out to black friday.   They reported higher earnings and good numbers but they tanked in the market.    We're basically doing day trading.   I keep seeing some initial impulses I find jump but I'm too late to get it it.  So need to continue to read them each day.  The problem is, it takes too much time on some level.   I really don't recommend it. 

[Aetherous]

7 minutes ago, dawei said:

We're basically doing day trading.

 

I'm scared of that after having attempted it with crypto (day and swing trading between alt-coins). We truly never know where the stock will go after executing the trade.

Apparently there are many ways to minimize risk and to better predict the direction of stocks...some people are consistently successful at it...as of right now, it's all pretty much over my head.

[dawei]

5 minutes ago, Aetherous said:

 

I'm scared of that after having attempted it with crypto (day and swing trading between alt-coins). We truly never know where the stock will go after executing the trade.

Apparently there are many ways to minimize risk and to better predict the direction of stocks...some people are consistently successful at it...as of right now, it's all pretty much over my head.

 

It is a mixed bagged result, so far.  I don't look at cryto.

 

Here is my current way.  Research the earnings reports that will come out.  Some BMO (before market) and AMO (after market).  If you do day trading, I'm now looking at AMO because one can sell the next day easily at any time... on Robinhood.    That is a free trading software.   I'm still feeling my way through the data points and when up means up or means down.    

 

The challenge is, when is it really up or down for the stock price?  I guessed a few times really good, as did my wife... I miss communicated to her because of our different  views.  

 

[Aetherous]

20 minutes ago, dawei said:

It is a mixed bagged result, so far.  I don't look at cryto.

 

Here is my current way.  Research the earnings reports that will come out.  Some BMO (before market) and AMO (after market).  If you do day trading, I'm now looking at AMO because one can sell the next day easily at any time... on Robinhood.    That is a free trading software.   I'm still feeling my way through the data points and when up means up or means down.    

 

The challenge is, when is it really up or down for the stock price?  I guessed a few times really good, as did my wife... I miss communicated to her because of our different  views.  

 

I wonder if you set a stop loss and/or limit orders?

[dawei]

28 minutes ago, Aetherous said:

 

I wonder if you set a stop loss and/or limit orders?

 

At times.  Depends on the strategy.   You want to get in and out fast, or ride it out?    Sometimes, cut your small lose to find another big gain !   I prefer more day trading style but you have to spend a lot of time to research the earnings reports game.   I'm following that idea so far.   

 

Based on your questions, you realize the use of the items you mention.    

 

Stop Loss/Limit Order:  so you set a price if it drops below that amount you want to sell?    It depends on how you view the investment.  Do you want a year or 5 years wait, or just a few days?   But in short times, if we think averaging down is good because the stock will go up, we'll do we..  We missed it big time with JCP, who was stating their earnings today... They Dropped to $1.05 and we should of jumped on it... lesson learned. 

 

Our goal is $100 a day.   So we look for how to make that happen.

 

I will jump in and out when I realize I made a mistake to find another will jump.  My wife is more calculating and rarely loses but is much slower.   I'm learning from her but she is learning the US stock market movement.  

 

In terms of earnings reports, the before and after market reports are very telling.   Retail is taking a huge hit in the market despite good reports.   Next week is black friday and that will turn around. 

 

[dawei]

Just look at Kodak...  crazy fall over the years... but when to jump in ?  About three weeks ago.

 

RYB crash 53% down...   but we made money on it by buying when we felt it would rebound today.  

 

It's not an easy game to play. 

[dawei]

Also look at VSI... or BZH...   we bought before they surged...  even the dow was down !      Got hundreds of dollars..   It is all a game. 

[dawei]

So all retailers dropped... Macy's , JCP, Walmart, Dillards, Kohls, ... despite most had higher earnings reports... so why ?   Ahead of black friday, there is apprehension about revenue outcomes... or a market game to get prices to drop... Best Buy is up. 

[thelerner]

These days stockwise I'm keeping things simple, ie a third  40% big market etfs (DIA, QQQ, SPY, VYM), 40% high dividend payers, maybe 20% stocks with a good growth story.  My thinking is more dividend oriented too.  Thus less interested in price and more in how solid the financials of a firm are, and how its been growing its dividend. 

 

I'm less infatuated by a stock price that's gone way up, and more by earning 8, 10, 12% on the money originally put into a stock, and that takes years, but holding a good dividend payer 8 or 10 years and some become nice cash cows.  Which I prefer to shooting stars. 

 

on a more practical basis, I have a target card that saves me 5% at target, a similar 5% one for Amazon but I just got a Starbucks card that in the short run beats them both.  It's $49 a year, but buying $500 in the first 3 months got me  6500 points, enough for 52 free items.  If I made them all the Zatar Chicken salad lunch at $9 a pop, $10 w/ tax, that means $520 of value for spending $49 (the $500 I'd have spent anyway).  Even using it to buy my usual small dark coffee $2.25 means over a $110 of value for $49.  (I'll quit the card next year if no similar bonus)

 

You could certainly make the argument its way cheaper to make your own, but that a slippery slope to drinking well water in a cave.  And what fun would that be?  The internet connection would suck. 

 

Every now and then unusually good deals are available.  The site Mymoneyblog.com will list especially good ones. 

Edited November 16, 2018 by thelerner

[Aetherous]

1 hour ago, thelerner said:

high dividend payers

 

I recently got interested in this.

 

I took the advice of a passive income investor, and did research looking for high yield funds which had dividend yields that either consistently increased or didn't drop down for over 5 years, whose stock price tended to rise over time more or less...in sectors like real estate where it's more reliable than stocks, and perhaps real estate indexes. I put together a group which (when I last checked) when combined brought home over an 8% dividend yield.

For those who don't know about this...that wouldn't be the total return for the year, it would just be the dividend payouts. If the prices went up, the returns would be higher than that.

 

When I actually jump into this, I'll want to check how these are doing each month and listen to any news about them...definitely more hands on than long term index investing. I plan on using this high dividend strategy in a Roth IRA, so that when the time comes that I'm no longer reinvesting dividends, I'll simply be able to withdraw the money/receive the dividends as a cash flow without paying taxes.

Here were ones I picked, which more or less fit the requirements (if not, for other reasons they seemed good):

25% HEP

20% KBWY

15% GLAD

25% ARI

5% APTS
5% DEA
5% O

On dividend investing, please anyone feel free to correct me or share any tips.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Aetherous

[dawei]

17 hours ago, Aetherous said:

 

I recently got interested in this.

 

I took the advice of a passive income investor, and did research looking for high yield funds which had dividend yields that either consistently increased or didn't drop down for over 5 years, whose stock price tended to rise over time more or less...in sectors like real estate where it's more reliable than stocks, and perhaps real estate indexes. I put together a group which (when I last checked) when combined brought home over an 8% dividend yield.

For those who don't know about this...that wouldn't be the total return for the year, it would just be the dividend payouts. If the prices went up, the returns would be higher than that.

 

When I actually jump into this, I'll want to check how these are doing each month and listen to any news about them...definitely more hands on than long term index investing. I plan on using this high dividend strategy in a Roth IRA, so that when the time comes that I'm no longer reinvesting dividends, I'll simply be able to withdraw the money/receive the dividends as a cash flow without paying taxes.

Here were ones I picked, which more or less fit the requirements (if not, for other reasons they seemed good):

25% HEP

20% KBWY

15% GLAD

25% ARI

5% APTS
5% DEA
5% O

On dividend investing, please anyone feel free to correct me or share any tips.

 

I don't follow the dividend angle.   So how did they fair today ?

 

I'm into day trading but investing in retail leading up to Black Friday. 

 

I was following PG&E this last week and I missed their moment today... went up almost 40%.  

 

I had tagged Viab to watch... but forgot... up almost 4% today.   Missed it.  

 

Day trading is exhausting.   Still don't recommend it.  

[Aetherous]

40 minutes ago, dawei said:

I don't follow the dividend angle.   So how did they fair today ?

 

I looked again last night as I made the post, and that portfolio I described currently yields 8.5% in dividend payouts in a year. I think it's something that doesn't change so much on a daily basis, but every once in a while there might be a big change in one of them. I'm not sure how these will do whenever the market finally crashes...I suspect them to stay roughly the same due to it being a pretty diversified and safe form of real estate, as well as one energy fund.

 

40 minutes ago, dawei said:

Day trading is exhausting.   Still don't recommend it.  

 

Maybe one day when I gain enough knowledge, and then paper trade for a good amount of time first to ensure I'd be successful. I'm interested to hear more about how you do before market and after market earnings reports - I'm not sure where to find those?

[dawei]

4 hours ago, Aetherous said:

 

I looked again last night as I made the post, and that portfolio I described currently yields 8.5% in dividend payouts in a year. I think it's something that doesn't change so much on a daily basis, but every once in a while there might be a big change in one of them. I'm not sure how these will do whenever the market finally crashes...I suspect them to stay roughly the same due to it being a pretty diversified and safe form of real estate, as well as one energy fund.

 

 

Maybe one day when I gain enough knowledge, and then paper trade for a good amount of time first to ensure I'd be successful. I'm interested to hear more about how you do before market and after market earnings reports - I'm not sure where to find those?

 

Here is an earnings calendar that show before and after market reports.   I would not rely on that alone but there are news reports that should be researched to explain the situation.    Even that is not completely useful.  

 

https://www.zacks.com/earnings/earnings-calendar