The Brexit Thread

[Marblehead]

Seems to me that May and many of the politicians don't care what the British people want.  I would think that would be grounds for a vote of confidence.  

 

[Patrick Brown]

16 hours ago, rideforever said:

Anyway humans are completely mad.

 

Well TM is definitely stark raving bonkers if she thinks the British people are completely stupid!   

[Patrick Brown]

11 hours ago, Marblehead said:

I would think that would be grounds for a vote of confidence.  

 

It should have already happened and yet may still happen, fingers crossed. 

[Miffymog]

Just done some more reading on the issue and the most likely outcome seems to be, one way or anther, May's deal will end up getting through parliament. If not on a first vote, then on a second one after some minor amendments, as all the other options are too chaotic.

 

But the fact is no one knows what will happen with the vote itself, nor how the stock markets will react to the outcome, so any final result from a hard brexit to fully remain is still a possibility. 

[Patrick Brown]

 

[Miffymog]

Mini Brexit update.

 

Just before the EU signed off the deal, Spain suddenly added one of it’s own demands in regards to Gibraltar (its aims are for Gibraltar to remain more aligned to the EU in the future, despite it being a British oversea territory) – May caved in to the demand in her attempt to get the deal signed off with the EU.

 

The DUP (the small group of Northern Irish MP’s who give May her majority in the House of Commons) has just stated they will not support the deal, which means she’s more dependent on trying to get Labour MP’s to support her (the party's official policy is not to)

 

Critics of the deal are currently jumping on these two events to continue their attempt to sink the deal, which is more likely today than it was yesterday.

 

But again, those against it either want a hard Brexit, a new deal, or to remain. So where does it go? If the deal sinks, these three groups by definition can never join together ...

[rene]

Too bad you're not still a true Monarchy.

God save the Queen

[Patrick Brown]

Well even though Farage got-up-my-nose the other day, as I thought he attitude regarding global warming was dismissive and rude, we'll listen to what he's got to say.

 

Live at: 10 am UK time: 

 

 

[Marblehead]

FOX News is reporting that it's (May's) a done deal.

 

Will the people accept her decision?  They already voted against it once.

 

 

 

[Patrick Brown]

32 minutes ago, Marblehead said:

FOX News is reporting that it's (May's) a done deal.

 

Will the people accept her decision?  They already voted against it once.

 

 

 

 

Needs to go through several more votes the main one is Parliament in December which most think will vote it down.  

[Miffymog]

After the EU this weekend signed off the deal they are prepared to offer the UK, Brexit issues are returning to a mild simmering for the time being, well for a short while.

 

The vote in the House of Commons is going to be sometime around the 15th of December, although an exact date has not yet been set.

 

From now on wards, May is desperately trying to drum up enough support for her deal.

 

The media is trying to come up with other news topics for the time being because as the vote approaches, we'll end up hearing about nothing but Brexit.

 

And after the vote ... !!!

[rideforever]

I think it's bad, I don't really see what we get ?  There isn't actually a deal ?
Why are we paying 40 BN ?  
Get lost.
All this "deal" is ... is giving partial sovereignty of Niorthern Ireland to the EU and giving them 40 BN.
And .... what exactly do we get out of it.
TM has basically done a large "apology" to the EU, for being a democratic country.
That's basically what it is ... forty thousand million pounds apology ... for being a democracy.

And it seems that there is a some vote coming up where we give the EU 40 BN pounds .... and they give us nothing.
FFS
I think this is crazy.

And then when we "negotiate" a new trade arrangement ..... they basically own Northern Ireland,meaning we surrender soverign rights over that terrirtory, and negotiate from there >
Insane.

TM must feel under some dreadful pressure to "negotiate" as if a gun is to her head.
When actually it's no big deal to just leave WTO.

Very bad indeed.

[Miffymog]

Devils advocate ...

 

Firstly - there were initial suggestions we'd have to pay £100 billion to leave, and that got brought down to £40 billion.

 

Secondly -  we pay £8 billion a year to be a member of the EU and have access to the single market. I think these payments stop when we leave the EU in March 2019, but that £40 billion will cover our access to the single market during the transition period. So, if the transition period lasts 2 years where we pretty much still have full access to the single market, then that would have cost us £16 billion anyway. So, we would actually only be paying the EU £24 billion to leave. (if the transition period lasts even longer - gulp - we kind of get even better value for our money).

 

Now, you could very well argue we shouldn't even be paying that, but if that sum were to mean we get a better trade deal that lasts for decades, it might be worth it.

 

ps - this is not my actual opinion.

 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Miffymog

[Miffymog]

 

Extra intrigue on the Brexit front – could we remain even if we wanted to?

 

48% of the population wanted to stay when the referendum was held in June 2016, and this might have changed. But if we can’t return even if we wanted to, that does shine a different light on the vote in December.

 

It basically means the deal that May has is the best a remainer could ever hope for…

 

 

Now, all the of the major political members of the EU have said they’d be happy for us to return, basically because we are a fairly major net contributor to the EU (due to the money made in the corrupt city of London stock markets).

 

But, can we by law return, seeing as we have already handed in our letter to leave? The question has just been put to the EU courts and they are now in a tricky position.

 

Firstly, they have never had to make a ruling on a hypothetical situation before. Can they be made to make a judgement on something that has not happened yet (us asking to return).

 

Secondly, the document called article 50 that describes the process of leaving the EU, was written on the basis of it never having to actually be used – so it’s incredibly vague on the issue.

 

One interpretation is that yes, the UK could return, but only if every member of the current 27 countries vote yes. This makes a lot of sense as this is the situation for new members. But, given a unanimous outcome can’t be guaranteed, it pretty much leaves the UK out in the cold.

 

So, can we just withdraw the letter of departure before March 2019 (when we officially leave), and immediately have all our rights and privileges reinstated without a risky 27 member vote on the issue? No one knows …

 

But the answer to this question has a significant effect on how remainers might vote when it comes the vote in the House of Commons in December on May’s deal.

 

Can the EU courts get a definite answer back in time? ….

Edited November 27, 2018 by Miffymog

[Patrick Brown]

One of the very few politicians I have respect for! 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Miffymog]

Just heard the vote in the Commons is to be held on Tuesday the 11th of December.

 

___________

 

May has agreed to a televised debate with the leader of the opposition, Corbyn, who will argue against her deal (she choose not to have a debate with him for the General Election in June 2017).

 

Small bit of irony. May is leader of the Conservative (Tory) Party. The hard line Conservatives want to leave and helped contribute to having the referendum - but May was a Remainer.

 

Corbyn is leader of the Labour Party. The Labour Party, kind of campaigned to stay in the EU during the referendum, but Corbyn is pretty much on the leave side.

 

So who's views are they actually going to represent, their own or their party's?

 

(This is partly way May negotiated such soft and weak Brexit, in her heart she's a remainer - interesting how she got the job of leading us out of the EU...)

 

__________________

 

So, Corbyn will argue against her deal. But was does he argue for ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

If his position was to remain, which a lot of his party want, the whole situation would be soooo much easier, but this mix up of opinions at the top of each party has really added to the confusion amongst the British people.

 

His first job in the debate is just to critise what she's got, but what can he offer instead. He keeps on going on about how he would negotiate a better deal, but the EU keep going on about how that will never happen. His refusal to acknowledge this really frustrates me.

[Stosh]

I don't even care ! about Brexit ..and it seems like y'all are fools if take that 'deal' , that's not a deal , its surrender.

It appears political Brexit-ers want so much to take credit for the actions , that they have no care whatsoever what those actions are. 

Don't negotiate at all , obviously you don't know how , so.. do what you are willing to do , and deal with the consequences, but don't negotiate away the 'farm'. Britain ruled the known world , and now in an ugly divorce , you faint? its ugly. Tsk tsk

 

[Apech]

3 hours ago, Stosh said:

I don't even care ! about Brexit ..and it seems like y'all are fools if take that 'deal' , that's not a deal , its surrender.

It appears political Brexit-ers want so much to take credit for the actions , that they have no care whatsoever what those actions are. 

Don't negotiate at all , obviously you don't know how , so.. do what you are willing to do , and deal with the consequences, but don't negotiate away the 'farm'. Britain ruled the known world , and now in an ugly divorce , you faint? its ugly. Tsk tsk

 

 

 

Yes we ruled the world but you guys took it from us

[Apech]

3 hours ago, Miffymog said:

Just heard the vote in the Commons is to be held on Tuesday the 11th of December.

 

___________

 

May has agreed to a televised debate with the leader of the opposition, Corbyn, who will argue against her deal (she choose not to have a debate with him for the General Election in June 2017).

 

Small bit of irony. May is leader of the Conservative (Tory) Party. The hard line Conservatives want to leave and helped contribute to having the referendum - but May was a Remainer.

 

Corbyn is leader of the Labour Party. The Labour Party, kind of campaigned to stay in the EU during the referendum, but Corbyn is pretty much on the leave side.

 

So who's views are they actually going to represent, their own or their party's?

 

(This is partly way May negotiated such soft and weak Brexit, in her heart she's a remainer - interesting how she got the job of leading us out of the EU...)

 

__________________

 

So, Corbyn will argue against her deal. But was does he argue for ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

If his position was to remain, which a lot of his party want, the whole situation would be soooo much easier, but this mix up of opinions at the top of each party has really added to the confusion amongst the British people.

 

His first job in the debate is just to critise what she's got, but what can he offer instead. He keeps on going on about how he would negotiate a better deal, but the EU keep going on about how that will never happen. His refusal to acknowledge this really frustrates me.

 

Yeah that's ironic.  What on earth do the Labour party want? apart from a general election that is.

[Stosh]

1 hour ago, Apech said:

 

 

Yes we ruled the world but you guys took it from us

It only got that way because y'all weren't giving us the rights of Englishmen - which the majority here felt we were entitled to.

We had the opportunity to grow across the continent , and inherited several paradigms from y'all which put us in good stead.   

But WW2 was what put Great Britain on a declining spiral , not US really. We stepped into an open role, no hard feelings. 

[Patrick Brown]

15 hours ago, Miffymog said:

Just heard the vote in the Commons is to be held on Tuesday the 11th of December.

 

___________

 

May has agreed to a televised debate with the leader of the opposition, Corbyn

 

 

I think this debate is just a smokescreen to confuse the public even more. The only way forward is to leave on WTO rules. May's conniving is despicable and most people, including MP's, are waking up to the fact she always planned to keep us in the EU. She'll be out by Christmas and if not that's when the civil unrest will start!   

Edited November 28, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Stosh]

9 hours ago, Patrick Brown said:

 

 The only way forward is to leave on WTO rules.

Or,,, what?

I read a summary which said , that you will owe 37 billion pounds , and the treaties will cease to apply. The end. And the negotiated settlement is around 60 billion , and you will still have them mucking around in your affairs.

Is that incorrect?  

Locke

"That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed"

 

1)   Is it the basic opinion of Brits that they want to be involved in a free trade area with the EU , but NOT the single market or the customs union , because it interferes with the sovereignty of Britain, mainly as regards masses of people coming in and out of the country? and being able to negotiate trade deals outside the EU jurisdiction?... and the big problem is that they want to retain a soft border with Ireland as regards people , but not embrace single market trade as dictated by the EU? 

2) Does the EU just want to spank UK for withdrawing , so as to discourage a race for the door , of other member states which also would prefer Free trade zone over single market economy? 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Stosh

[Patrick Brown]

Stosh we can just leave it's that simple. If we struggle for a few years it's not a problem but the EU will be finished. 

[Michael Sternbach]

[Stosh]

18 hours ago, Patrick Brown said:

Stosh we can just leave it's that simple. If we struggle for a few years it's not a problem but the EU will be finished. 

Well yeah, article 50 makes it really pretty simple on your part, but one doesn't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. The point of negotiating at all is that y'all want it to be least difficult and painful. All the countries you trade with are partners , in a way , they are mutually benefited by the trade , and so the EU should recognize that not letting go on pleasant terms is a problem for their remaining member states as well. 

The less nightmare the better. For us, the NAFTA was a dumb deal , but for yall a FTA may actually be the best thing , because of the number and varied sizes of the participants economies. Y'all want to keep your national identities and currencies and protect somewhat different cultures , so theres a limit to how 'federalized' an arrangement is acceptable. 

If the EU does crumble , that too presents problems , and it would be good to have an acceptable alternative already established. 

Edited November 29, 2018 by Stosh