The Brexit Thread

[Miffymog]

15 minutes ago, rideforever said:

Once the legal advice comes out ... no way the "Deal" will go through, Gov will probably cancel the vote on Monday and the Sunday night televised.
Then ... maybe May will go.
Wow ... this is a great movie !!!!!

 

Now the Gov is told to immediately publish the document .... which I guess Geoffrey Cox says somewhere in it that we may lose N.Ireland sovereignty in permanence and it be held against us during negotiations.  

 

Yep. This has long been the position of the EU. We can get a 'reasonable' deal if we are willing to lose NI. This would not be a problem for someone on the mainland, but for the fact May lost her majority in the last election. The DUP no longer supporting the Conservative causes May massive problems.

[rideforever]

Davis would never have come back with this deal.
But hey.
Things are progressing rapidly, at this rate everything will be decided in a week and I can go to Goa on holiday !

[Miffymog]

8 minutes ago, rideforever said:

Davis would never have come back with this deal.
But hey.
Things are progressing rapidly, at this rate everything will be decided in a week and I can go to Goa on holiday !

 

The first negotiating position of the UK government should have been - lets work out how to have a smooth hard Brexit. Once that's been established, then we could have worked out a closer deal. This is what Davis may have done, and is what should have been done.

It is a great shame that this approach was never taken and we'll never know what may have been.

As it is, we are slowly heading towards remain ...

[rideforever]

More to come, looks like the theatre is putting on late night performance in the HOC, anything could happen.
Roll up Roll up

[Miffymog]

Corbyn is currently nicely taken apart May's deal ...

[Apech]

3 hours ago, Miffymog said:

Corbyn is currently nicely taken apart May's deal ...

 

Corbyn couldn't take apart a cheese sandwich.  

[Chang]

9 hours ago, Apech said:

 

Corbyn couldn't take apart a cheese sandwich.  

 

Truer words were never spoken but his incompetence and Marxist insanity appear to endear him to left and liberal leaning herdlings.

 

Corbyn could well end up as Prime Minister at the end of this Brexit bebacle and then the fun will really begin.

[Patrick Brown]

Yes of course I signed this although I'm not sure what happened as I've been busy!

 

"Parliament debated the petition you signed – “Stop possible second referendum on E.U. membership”"

 

Watch the debate: https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/4330475e-b1fd-4878-903c-700c4ea4eb81

Read the transcript: https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2018-12-03/debates/C98FB021-9FF0-459F-AF03-672BD765E14C/EUMembershipSecondReferendum

Read the research: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CDP-2018-0267#fullreport

The petition: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/226071

 

So if the outcome is that we can't have a second referendum but we can't just leave then it seems as if the only way forward is to renegotiate. Of course if the EU say they won't renegotiate then our government will have no choice but to go for a 'Hard Brexit' with WTO rules. 

Edited December 5, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Miffymog]

I did not quite follow all of the votes yesterday and the significance of the third and last one missed me.

 

The third vote that the government lost basically determines who gets to decide what happens if/when May loses the vote on her deal on Tuesday. And the power has now moved from May to decide what the so called 'Plan B' is to parliament. This means that this 'Plan B' will be decided by a majority MPs.

 

What will a majority of MP's go for?

 

I think that between them they already have a good idea of where this will go, but we wont find out until Tuesday.

 

 

[rideforever]

Apparently it's only advisory if the MPs debate any deal as per the 3rd vote, the Gov would be able to treat it as "advice".
Not sure if it's good or bad, if May is up there then maybe it's good.
 

[rideforever]

 

[Miffymog]

1 hour ago, rideforever said:

Apparently it's only advisory if the MPs debate any deal as per the 3rd vote, the Gov would be able to treat it as "advice".
Not sure if it's good or bad, if May is up there then maybe it's good.
 

 

oh - then I don't really understand the implications of this one then 

[Apech]

Full legal advice is here https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exiting-the-eu-publication-of-legal-advice

 

... and from what I can tell it says that the back-stop for NI would effectively be permanent with no mechanism for withdrawal - so locked in permanent negotiations with the EU having no compulsion to agree to anything.  It would be like cold.war peace talks which meet forever without any intention of reaching a conclusion.

 

i think that this means the NI situation means the only Brexit is a hard Brexit which would create a 'hard' border between NI and Ireland itself which is counter to the peace agreement.  So that's the hard choice I guess.

[Miffymog]

44 minutes ago, Apech said:

Full legal advice is here https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exiting-the-eu-publication-of-legal-advice

 

... and from what I can tell it says that the back-stop for NI would effectively be permanent with no mechanism for withdrawal - so locked in permanent negotiations with the EU having no compulsion to agree to anything.  It would be like cold.war peace talks which meet forever without any intention of reaching a conclusion.

 

i think that this means the NI situation means the only Brexit is a hard Brexit which would create a 'hard' border between NI and Ireland itself which is counter to the peace agreement.  So that's the hard choice I guess.

 

I've always felt that a hard Brexit would mean handing over control of NI to the EU. From a selfish point of view I don't live there I'm afraid. NI is, unfortunately, a financial drain on the UK. And, there is a 'good' percentage of Northern Irish who would like to unite with the rest of Ireland. (In fact all of the business leaders in NI are desperate to stay in the jurisdiction of the EU).

 

"An online survey conducted by Lucid Talk for the BBC found that 45% of people in Northern Ireland wanted to remain as part of the UK, while 42.1% said they would like to join the Republic of Ireland. 12.7% said they didn’t know." June 8th 2018.

 

But this does say a slight majority would rather remain in the Union.

[Apech]

42 minutes ago, Apech said:

Full legal advice is here https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exiting-the-eu-publication-of-legal-advice

 

... and from what I can tell it says that the back-stop for NI would effectively be permanent with no mechanism for withdrawal - so locked in permanent negotiations with the EU having no compulsion to agree to anything.  It would be like cold.war peace talks which meet forever without any intention of reaching a conclusion.

 

i think that this means the NI situation means the only Brexit is a hard Brexit which would create a 'hard' border between NI and Ireland itself which is counter to the peace agreement.  So that's the hard choice I guess.

 

 

On reflection I think the whole thing is a storm in a tea cup.  Is it beyond the wit of man to have a physically open border with some kind electronic tracking such as they already use for speed traps and toll roads (in Europe)* which logs transit of goods - then its just case of spot checking anything suspicious and a routine sample of say 10% of lorries.  So the border would be physically open even if there was a technical barrier and custom duties.

 

* in Europe there are toll roads where if you display a pass on your windscreen you go through without stopping and also some where cameras detect your transit and you pay later online or through a post office and so on.

 

 

[Apech]

2 minutes ago, Miffymog said:

 

I've always felt that a hard Brexit would mean handing over control of NI to the EU. From a selfish point of view I don't live there I'm afraid. NI is, unfortunately, a financial drain on the UK. And, there is a 'good' percentage of Northern Irish who would like to unite with the rest of Ireland. (In fact all of the business leaders in NI are desperate to stay in the jurisdiction of the EU).

 

"An online survey conducted by Lucid Talk for the BBC found that 45% of people in Northern Ireland wanted to remain as part of the UK, while 42.1% said they would like to join the Republic of Ireland. 12.7% said they didn’t know." June 8th 2018.

 

But this does say a slight majority would rather remain in the Union.

 

 

I don't think it is necessary although they could have an Independence referendum like they did in Scotland - but the break up of the union doesn't seem either necessary or a good idea.

[rideforever]

No shit, I knew that last week about N.Ireland, doesn't anyone read anything !

 

Anyway, in Swiss they certainly don't check every lorry or anything, mostly it's all open and they use "intelligence" to locate particularly dodgy sounding arrivals or companies, from time to time.

 

In fact it's quite interesting because clearly many people think that guards are checking through all the pallettes of consumer junk that come off the cargo ships .... but it ain't there aren't any border any more to be honest, and smuggling is pretty easy ... but as you can get anything anywhere nobody cares.

 

In the same way "trade agreements" are not what they seem ... because you can trade with who you like according to currency + duty + transport.

 

So what's left ?

 

1.  The appearance of the rule of law and talking tough and pretending you have borders to not frighten the old.

2.  Confdence, advertising your country, making big noise on TV to sort of attract people to your country, about how connected and open you are.

 

Anyway, I always got the impression that the EU's toaster wattage business ... what that is is a smokescreen to disguise what they actually do.  Just like the MEPs who can't do anything.   More smokescreens.  You think it takes 50,000 people to make toaster wattages ? 

What do they do ?   They are simply told by the corporate lobbyists in Brussels which laws to make and then they make them.  It's corporate plundering by removing the traditional national barriers of the 28 countries, far as I can tell.

 

 

[Miffymog]

After yesterdays votes, J.P. Morgan raised the probability of Britain ultimately staying in the EU to 40 percent from 20 percent - Reuters

[rideforever]

If we remain were f***ed.   The world is changing and well be stapled to the "transgenderocracy".

[Apech]

14 minutes ago, rideforever said:

If we remain were f***ed.   The world is changing and well be stapled to the "transgenderocracy".

 

I didn't realise transgenderism involved stapling.

[Miffymog]

The Times has just released a YouGov poll that shows the percentage of the public who think Brexit is a mistake has reached a new high of 49%.

 

Polls are not reliable, but if they're all you've got to assess the opinion of the public, then MP's will start to listen to them as they want to keep their seats in the next election.

[Patrick Brown]

 

[Patrick Brown]

Just occurred to me that normally a government will start a war as a distraction when they're trying to force something through parliament! Maybe this time it's going to be the other way around as any sniff that this dodgy agreement is going to be passed will cause mayhem on the streets of London. Hey we've already had 'Bomb-Fire-Night, well perhaps that was just a practice run?!   

 

 

[rideforever]

I think TM is looking to lose and then can step down, I hope so anyway.
What happened to the 1922 Committee ?
I suppose nobody wants to captain the ship afterwards.
But anyway my money would be on putting Davis/ Raab in and see what they come up with.

[Patrick Brown]