The Brexit Thread

[Patrick Brown]

10 minutes ago, Marblehead said:

Won't go.  It says only UK or British citizens can sign the petition.

 

Yeah I did say UK citizens. But talking about going...

 

Hopefully the Metro front page image has appeared above? 

[Patrick Brown]

This is how bad it is (see front page below) as basically our Prime Minister is threatening the public by saying if you don't take this we're staying in the EU!!!! So we're staying in the EU or, err, we're staying in the EU!! Does she think we're completely stupid? She's obviously a lackey of the EU and, well, it's treason isn't it? We can just leave, it's not complicated, well it might be but we can just leave it's always been the number one option and we would have been two years ahead of the game if... 

 

[Patrick Brown]

The chaos has begun! 

 

Quote

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has resigned saying he "cannot in good conscience support" the UK's draft Brexit agreement with the EU.

 

Theresa May announced on Wednesday evening that she had secured the backing of her cabinet for the agreement, after a five hour meeting.

 

But several ministers were understood to have spoken against it.

 

And there are suggestions of moves among Conservative backbenchers to force a no-confidence vote in her.

 

Mr Raab - a Leave supporter who was promoted to the cabinet to replace David Davis when he quit in protest at Mrs May's Brexit plans - is among a group of senior ministers thought to be unhappy with the agreement.

 

Earlier on Thursday, Shailesh Vara quit as minister of state for Northern Ireland, saying he cannot support Mrs May's agreement, which he said "leaves the UK in a halfway house with no time limit on when we will finally be a sovereign nation".

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46219495

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Patrick Brown]

Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey has also quit

 

EDIT:

 

Junior Northern Ireland minister Shailesh Vara, junior Brexit minister Suella Braverman, and parliamentary private secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan also quit.

 

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Marblehead]

If they keep quitting won't be long and you folks will have a dictatorship.

 

[Patrick Brown]

Live coverage here if you can get it in your country: 

https://news.sky.com/watch-live

[Chang]

We may feel angry or even outraged at the way our Government has handled the matter of the U.K.'s exit from the E.U. but the one emotion we should not display is surprise.

 

The simple fact is that the Brexit negotiations have been conducted by those who would have rather had us remain within the tyrany of the European Union. Add to this the fact that Theresa May is more of a Prime Drip than a Prime Minister and voila!

[Patrick Brown]

Well I've been listening to Theresa May for over an hour and this is what's going on.

 

1. No second vote/referendum 

2. This is the 'deal' or it's no-deal (Hard Brexit) or stay in the EU, i.e. We could leave without a deal (which many of us want).

3. The remainers keep asking for another vote which of course TM has said will never happen.

4. Theresa May has said she will honour the people and get us out of the EU.

 

So I think she's playing a game knowing the current draft is not acceptable to anybody and is actually leaving the option of exiting the EU without a deal! So she may be so cunning that she's really planning to get us out of the EU with a Hard Brexit!? 

 

Of course if the remainers won't let us leave without a deal then they will take the brunt of the wrath of the people. So May is perhaps secretly pro Brexit?  

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Patrick Brown
Added item 4.

[Patrick Brown]

Conservative MP Ranil Jayawardena has quit his post as a parliamentary private secretary in the Ministry of Justice, telling the Prime Minister that her EU withdrawal agreement "does not deliver a good and fair Brexit".

[Apech]

We're fucked whichever way you look at it.

[Miffymog]

I got quite carried away with the last Brexit thread spearheaded by Karl, so much so that I decided to stay out of this one. But I have finally succumbed and will now enter the fray.

 

My own opinions, I voted to leave during the referendum, but I often had regrets afterwards. However, whenever I remembered how we were treated by members of the EU, such as by Junker, I decided it was the right thing.

 

I think there are many benefits of going for a hard Brexit - except one, how much would the French slow down trade at the border? Not to be too prejudiced, but the French can be quite intransigent and they would take great pleasure in backing up the lorries in Kent.

 

The problem is that small and easy act by the French would cause significant problems for our industry. Now with all issues like this, solutions would be found and our economy would just have to adjust. But this is my fear.

 

What about the current offer? Well, it is basically no Brexit at all, hmmm.

 

And what will happen? I will throw down my opinions and make my predictions. I think it's in December when the vote in parliament happens, and I think it will get through.

 

The issue is this - if there was only two options, then a second referendum could be held, but there are more. Stay in the EU, accept the offer, re-negotiate or hard Brexit. You can't have a vote on 4 different outcomes, it's just not practical because you end up having a winner with only 25% support.

 

So, we are going to be stuck with what May has, for better or for worse. What happens after the transition period, god only knows.

[Patrick Brown]

25 minutes ago, Apech said:

We're fucked whichever way you look at it.

 

Some more than others and that's the problem! But we did vote to get out so we should get on with it. 

 

8 minutes ago, Miffymog said:

The issue is this - if there was only two options, then a second referendum could be held, but there are more. Stay in the EU, accept the offer, re-negotiate or hard Brexit. You can't have a vote on 4 different outcomes, it's just not practical because you end up having a winner with only 25% support.

 

Well I figure if we had gone for a Hard Brexit from the start we might be suffering now but we would be looking at a positive and successful future. Now we just seem to be stuck in limbo and it's just going to drag on and on for years. We need a strong leader who's just going to bite the bullet and make a choice. If May's deal goes through, seems unlikely, it could work but it seems very iffy! 

 

The country is being damaged because of the continuing limbo and we should also factor in the next global financial meltdown which has been predicted so it all looks pretty gloomy. Hey I'm poor so none of this really bothers me but I would like to live in a safe and respectful country which is, and has, been slipping away for the last twenty years. 

 

[Chang]

34 minutes ago, Patrick Brown said:

 

Some more than others and that's the problem! But we did vote to get out so we should get on with it. 

 

 

Well I figure if we had gone for a Hard Brexit from the start we might be suffering now but we would be looking at a positive and successful future. Now we just seem to be stuck in limbo and it's just going to drag on and on for years. We need a strong leader who's just going to bite the bullet and make a choice. If May's deal goes through, seems unlikely, it could work but it seems very iffy! 

 

The country is being damaged because of the continuing limbo and we should also factor in the next global financial meltdown which has been predicted so it all looks pretty gloomy. Hey I'm poor so none of this really bothers me but I would like to live in a safe and respectful country which is, and has, been slipping away for the last twenty years. 

 

 

Whether we remain in the E.U. or leave the zeitgeist of the ruling classes in the U.K. and more so in Europe will still be Cultural Marxist.

 

That being the case things will continue to slip away for the foreseeable future. The leave vote in the U.K. was a sharp punch on the nose for the Socialists and Liberals but I am sorry to say that it caused hardly a pause in their ongoing efforts to shape our destiny as they see fit. Things are going to have to get an awful lot worse before enough people take the red pill and start to see what is before their eyes. Only when they see things as they really are can people be expected to stand up, be counted and step forward to make things change.

 

For the time being simply watch, listen and enjoy the fun of watching heads roll.....................

[Patrick Brown]

Quote

Rehman Chishti, the MP for Gillingham and Rainham, has announced his resignation as vice-chairman of the Conservative Party and also trade envoy to Pakistan.

 

Mr Chishti cites both the draft withdrawal agreement and the "lack of leadership" shown by the government in the Asia Bibi case.

 

[Patrick Brown]

This is hilarious:

 

Quote

Larry the Cat declines Brexit job

The chief mouser is happy where he is...

 

“The Prime Minister offered me the position of Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. After careful consideration for three seconds, I have declined the offer”

 

Source: https://twitter.com/Number10cat

 

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Patrick Brown]

Farage is live in about 10 minutes: 

 

 

[Miffymog]

There need to be 48 letters of no confidence from Conservative MPs against Theresa May to trigger a leadership challenge - although that many has not yet been reached, apparently they are getting very close indeed.

 

Now, this would make things very interesting.

 

But - even if this does happen, who will challenge her? Who would win? And what would that mean for Brexit given that the EU have made it clear they will offer no more to us.

 

If there is a successful challenge, it will be by a Tory Brexiter rather than Remainer.

 

Will this then take us closer to a hard Brexit, or another general election. The leave date is March next year, which does give enough time for another election or a second referendum.

 

Right - wild guess/prediction time, Theresa May will be challenged, but she'll win. But things are so unpredictable at the moment no one knows what's going to happen. At the very least, there are some very interesting news programs to watch. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Miffymog

[Chang]

Interesting times indeed with certain figures ( Michael Gove ) positioning themselves for a possible coup.

 

It is still possible that we could end up with the worse of all possible results, namely, remaining in the E.U. and a Marxist Government  led by Corbyn assisted by his various commissars. Whilst the latter seems ever more likely I still believe that we will limp away from Europe, though staying clear of E.U. influence may prove difficult.

 

The two most likely outcomes in the short term are that Prime Drip May will survive and attempt to get the deal through parliament, fail abysmally, resign resulting in a new leader, a general election and a Labour Government.

 

Outcome two would be a resignation due to lack of support, a new leader - Michael Gove seems most likely, a hard Brexit and a general election where the charismatic Corbyn (he has the vote of the under 40's and feminist minded women) would carry the day and once more the Marxists seize power.

 

I still believe that we shall quit the E.U. but it is difficult to imagine that our leaving will be anything other than a mess. The whole business has been orchestrated by either the pro Europe types or buffoons. Whilst there are numerous capable politicians who could have faced down the Eurocrats and led us to freedom, alas they have been sidelined.

 

Things are indeed going to get very, very interesting as the pantomime turns towards a Greek tragedy with many surprises yet in store.

 

 

[Apech]

I think the dubious May plan is to get her 'deal' rejected by Parliament - which then resolves to Hard Brexit or Remain - which is the choice which will be put back to the electorate by another referendum which will be won by remain.  Or alternatively another general election but then the choice will be blurred as Labour doesn't seem to have a defined position.  This will have to happen in January.

 

 

[Patrick Brown]

8 hours ago, Chang said:

I still believe that we shall quit the E.U. but it is difficult to imagine that our leaving will be anything other than a mess. The whole business has been orchestrated by either the pro Europe types or buffoons. Whilst there are numerous capable politicians who could have faced down the Eurocrats and led us to freedom, alas they have been sidelined.

 

Things are indeed going to get very, very interesting as the pantomime turns towards a Greek tragedy with many surprises yet in store.

 

It's a scandal that the government haven't been called to account for messing it up since the vote! We could have been on our way to growth and success by now instead of this protracted farce. 

 

7 hours ago, Apech said:

I think the dubious May plan is to get her 'deal' rejected by Parliament - which then resolves to Hard Brexit or Remain - which is the choice which will be put back to the electorate by another referendum which will be won by remain.  Or alternatively another general election but then the choice will be blurred as Labour doesn't seem to have a defined position.  This will have to happen in January.

 

I also get the feeling she's not in control and somewhat deluded. In fact in the speech she made [see below] I thought she came across as being very unstable and on the verge of a mental breakdown, I jest not. If she's so rattled does that suggest she had no idea of the backlash that would come from the draft agreement? Perhaps she thought nobody would notice the glaringly obvious tie-ins/lock-ins  to the EU?  Yet she keeps telling us we're leaving as if she thinks by keep repeating it people will believe her! She's lost the plot and should go, and as she won't resign she'll be hung-out to dry big time. She's going down as the worst PM ever, and the reason is her inflated ego and an inability to lead. All she had to do was make a decision either get a good deal or if the EU won't play fair then just leave, it's clear cut.   

 

She should have just bit-the-bullet and left without a deal, blaming it on the EU, and if it got blocked at least she wouldn't be taking the blame. We now have a leader who's, literally, lost the plot! She'll be gone by Monday at the latest. 

 

 

[Patrick Brown]

Th PM is live on LBC now:

 

 

[Apech]

1 hour ago, Patrick Brown said:

 

 

I also get the feeling she's not in control and somewhat deluded. In fact in the speech she made [see below] I thought she came across as being very unstable and on the verge of a mental breakdown, I jest not. If she's so rattled does that suggest she had no idea of the backlash that would come from the draft agreement? Perhaps she thought nobody would notice the glaringly obvious tie-ins/lock-ins  to the EU?  Yet she keeps telling us we're leaving as if she thinks by keep repeating it people will believe her! She's lost the plot and should go, and as she won't resign she'll be hung-out to dry big time. She's going down as the worst PM ever, and the reason is her inflated ego and an inability to lead. All she had to do was make a decision either get a good deal or if the EU won't play fair then just leave, it's clear cut.   

 

She should have just bit-the-bullet and left without a deal, blaming it on the EU, and if it got blocked at least she wouldn't be taking the blame. We now have a leader who's, literally, lost the plot! She'll be gone by Monday at the latest. 

 

 

I think the main problem is that the British Govt. have always described this as getting a 'deal'.  But the EU consider it as 'you are leaving so what do you owe us'.  There isn't any deal really - not anything that makes any sense.  From the EU side why should they grant anything to what will become a major competitor?  Also any concessions they make would set precendents for other potential leave countries and make membership more meaningless or less advantageous.

 

So all this 'we're going to get the best deal' stuff is a pantomime.

 

May hasn't handled this well - but the pressures on her must be immense.  Not helped by the little shits in her own party i.e. Gove, Davis, Johnson et al.  Their own personal political ambition seems more important than the country's future which has always been the case.  The only thing they are good at is knifing each other in the back.

[Patrick Brown]

48 Letters in, looks as if she'll soon be out!

[Miffymog]

But they then need over half the party to vote against her to get rid of her.

This probably wont happen.

However, if enough of her cabinet resign and there is still a large number of her party that vote against her, say 40%, then her position will be so weak she may have to step down.

 

What and who next ... ?

 

Right at the moment, I still think she'll survive, but it really is too close to call now ...

[Patrick Brown]

It'll certainly be close. I think she'll have to resign or risk her party never getting in power again for twenty plus years!