The Brexit Thread

[Miffymog]

Just looked at how the pound is doing against the back drop of all this.

It seemed to have dropped this morning at 9 am with the news there could well be a vote of no confidence.

But then at 9:50 it jumped up again, possibly because Gove says he wont step down from the cabinet.

And now its back on it's downward trajectory ... where it goes next, nobody knows ...

[Patrick Brown]

LOL Yeah the pounds does bounce around at times like these and the press thinks it's of real importance but in reality I don't think it's a big deal. The long term financial trends are what's important and no one knows what will happen there. Of course if we accepted this deal there would be a rise in the value of the pound short term but what about long term? 

 

I think Gove is playing a game as I've never liked him as he comes across as the slimy type of course some think they're all slimy! Res Mogg has grown on me as he seems the most level headed and as a Brexiteer I believe he could do the job the people voted for.   

 

This just in:

Quote

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, who stepped down from her role as a parliamentary private secretary in the department of education yesterday, has said she "isn't ruling out sending a letter" of no confidence against Theresa May.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46200010 

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Chang]

Whilst the present chaos makes for interesting news and speculation it is difficult to foresee a change in leadership which would lead to a Brexit that would satisfy the Leave Camp.

 

Many see Gove as a likely replacement but the thought of a man who resembles a Ferengi Trader leading the Conservatives into the next election against the charismatic Corbyn, is unlikely to appeal to the Tory rank and file. We would be more likely to end up with either Dominic Raab or Sajid Javid - which is a choice between a Jewish or Pakistani Prime Minister. Multi Culturalism really is here to stay and as I have already stated in this thread it matters not if we stay or leave the E.U. the zeitgeist will remain Cultural Marxist.

 

It is difficult to see Jacob Rees-Mogg stepping into the breach which is a shame as he at the very least has a bit of character about him.

[Patrick Brown]

I think you're right but I also think the government has made a shambles out of this and should be held accountable in some way, I think May needs to go as an example and then we can insist the EU renegotiate albeit this time more openly. If the public knew what was going to be in a deal they would have time to consider it and it could be openly debated. The current deal isn't acceptable as it could potentially lock us into the EU for an indefinite period so it's simply a nonstarter.  

 

We should have come up with our version of a deal from the beginning that was openly available to the pubic and then it would be up to the EU to work with us to find solution. As is the government have been dealing behind closed doors and the public have just become suspicious. Of course the idea of a deal the public can have a say in constructing will never happen but it would be the correct way to do this then a referendum on it would work. If this, 'peoples deal', had happened from the beginning then we would have a draft which all would pretty much understand and be prepared to vote on but as-is it's a mess. 

 

22 minutes ago, Chang said:

It is difficult to see Jacob Rees-Mogg stepping into the breach which is a shame as he at the very least has a bit of character about him.

 

Yes unfortunately he doesn't want to be PM which is a shame as I think people trust him and he would do a good job. Of course the people wouldn't be voting him in so he probably wouldn't get the position anyway.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Patrick Brown]

Apparently the 48 total has been reached according to the BBC.

 

Quote

NEW: Steve Baker has told the ERG whatsapp group his letter count is over 48 with a dozen probables on top.

Source: 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Apech]

1 hour ago, Chang said:

Whilst the present chaos makes for interesting news and speculation it is difficult to foresee a change in leadership which would lead to a Brexit that would satisfy the Leave Camp.

 

Many see Gove as a likely replacement but the thought of a man who resembles a Ferengi Trader leading the Conservatives into the next election against the charismatic Corbyn, is unlikely to appeal to the Tory rank and file. We would be more likely to end up with either Dominic Raab or Sajid Javid - which is a choice between a Jewish or Pakistani Prime Minister. Multi Culturalism really is here to stay and as I have already stated in this thread it matters not if we stay or leave the E.U. the zeitgeist will remain Cultural Marxist.

 

It is difficult to see Jacob Rees-Mogg stepping into the breach which is a shame as he at the very least has a bit of character about him.

 

Sajid Javid (not that I like him particularly) was born in Rochdale, describes himself as not religious and is married to a practicing Christian.  I don't know anything about Raab but I doubt if he's a Marxist culturally or otherwise.

 

I like Rees-Mogg as he seems a decent human being who sticks to his principles (even though I don't agree with him on some major things) - he'd do a hard Brexit of course, although I suppose he might offer something to the EU to see if they want some kind of 'deal'.  

 

i stick to my initial thought - which ever way we are fucked - and I don't mean the Westminster elite or big business I mean us 'ordinary folks'.

[Patrick Brown]

It does seem that we're going to be dragged into a whole new era of social manipulation, sorry I meant evolution (!), but not without some kicking and screaming ! Anybody that's been keeping an eye on the BBC website can see how skewed their view is of the dawning of our brave new democracy. Demonic and Crass or for the greatest and holiest buSINess deal of the century?!!  Take your pick.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Patrick Brown

[Chang]

1 hour ago, Apech said:

 

Sajid Javid (not that I like him particularly) was born in Rochdale, describes himself as not religious and is married to a practicing Christian.

 

Javid can describe himself as anything he wishes but when judging others it often pays to watch what they do rather than listening to what they say.

 

When taking his oath of office as Home Secretary he did so using the Qur'an. He could well have been sworn in by affirmation but chose to use the Holy Book of "his people."

 

 

[rideforever]

She has negotiated nothing, just given away N.Ireland and £40BN.
Incredible.
But perhaps it was always always going to be like this, unless we pull the trigger the forces of cowardice will rule.
Raab / Davis are ideal replacements and capable of getting something.
 

[Chang]

1 hour ago, Apech said:

i stick to my initial thought - which ever way we are fucked - and I don't mean the Westminster elite or big business I mean us 'ordinary folks'.

 

Here at least I believe that you are absolutely correct and I cannot argue with your statement. I can also have a gentle chuckle at the thought that as a Boring Buddhist you may expect to be reincarnated back into this world of fuckdom.

[Patrick Brown]

Apparently the reason the 'vote-of-no-confidence' hasn't happened yet is the post! I jest not which means it probably won't happen until next week. You'd think an email would suffice but hey what do I know? 

[Apech]

11 minutes ago, Chang said:

 

Javid can describe himself as anything he wishes but when judging others it often pays to watch what they do rather than listening to what they say.

 

When taking his oath of office as Home Secretary he did so using the Qur'an. He could well have been sworn in by affirmation but chose to use the Holy Book of "his people."

 

 

 

 

Was he wearing a suicide vest?

[Patrick Brown]

Well I don't rate/like him whatever his dress sense!  

[rideforever]

Some thoughts : are "free trade agreements" important ?  If you want to ship spanners to Burundi does it matter that much to you if the import duty is 5% or 15% ? It's just one of the costs you have to calculate like shipping handling distribution certification .... it doesn't mean you don't have to deal with the government at all.   And the final cost to the consumer of Burundi is affected by many factors including the strength of your economy legal system and so on. ???

Politicians prance about .... but is it actually relevant ?   The make "agreements" (have lots of meetings) but so what ?  Isn't politics just a sort of job that society uses to find work for useless drunks who like red wine at lunchtime ?

If you are in business isn't it better to use WTO for all countries, rather than having Agreement A with countries 1,2,3 and Agreement B with countries 4,5, and WTO with countries 6,7.   What a bloody headache, just imagine how much legislation you have to read through.

 

If you make a FTA with some country .... and then what ?   Do you expect all the donut manufacturers to jump up and down  and start selling them in Alaska ?   Or do you think that a new FTA means that all the housewives are going to say ... "oh ok lets' be Alan Sugar and start manufacturing computers".

 

FTAs .... aren't they mostly about promoting your country by making a lot of confident noise on TV.   Isn't that really the game.

 

And perhaps you can do that anyway, with diplomacy, cultural exchange, real confidence and having useful products for the world.

 

Monkeys having red win luncheons and jumping up and down ... it's boring now.

[Apech]

From BBC News

Quote

Leading Brexiteers in the cabinet have rallied behind Theresa May amid attempts to unseat her by Tory MPs.

Michael Gove said he "absolutely" had confidence in Mrs May as he confirmed he would not be following several other ministers out of the door.

And Liam Fox urged MPs to support the PM's draft Brexit agreement, saying a "deal was better than no deal".

It came as more Conservatives expressed unhappiness with Mrs May's leadership and urged a confidence vote.

The BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg said about 20 Tories have, so far, publicly stated they have submitted letters of no confidence in the PM over her handling of Brexit.

This is some way short of the 48 needed to trigger a vote under Conservative Party rules.

 

 

[Miffymog]

hmmmmm

 

Senior members of the cabinet (whom are still there) are rallying around Theresa May at the moment, does this mean they've reached the 48 and the letter's just not got to number 10 yet?

 

Ok - the majority of Tories will either fear a Corbyn government or a hard Brexit, so May will survive and the current deal will get through to a vote in the House of Commons next month.

 

Then ... oooh ... will it struggle to get through ... yes

 

Then what ---?

 

 

 

 

[Patrick Brown]

1 hour ago, Apech said:

From BBC News

 

 

The letters are submitted directly and the only person who knows how many ministers have been submitted is the head of 1922 committee.

 

22 ministers have told the press they have submitted a letter of no-confidence but many have remained anonymous.  

 

The reason some strongly suspect that the target of 48 has been reached is that ministers have been confirming to each other, in confidence, that they have submit a letter of no-confidence in the PM. Of course there is an element of doubt but some letters may have been posted but you would imagine that you could send it via email? 

 

I think the target has been reached but the 1922 committee have been told to stall the process! It's possibly a scandal but I doubt we'll ever find out anything about it. So it'll probably be Monday/Tuesday that the hanging will take place! 

Edited November 16, 2018 by Patrick Brown
22 MP's now known to have sent a letter

[Patrick Brown]

3 minutes ago, Miffymog said:

Ok - the majority of Tories will either fear a Corbyn government or a hard Brexit, so May will survive and the current deal will get through to a vote in the House of Commons next month.

 

Then ... oooh ... will it struggle to get through ... yes

 

Then what ---?

 

It won't get through and if it does I think there's a very strong possibility of civil unrest. All the bilge coming out of the media is not the truth, most people are prepared for a hard Brexit but it's the buSINess people that are pulling strings trying to keep us in.

[Miffymog]

1 minute ago, Patrick Brown said:

 

It won't get through and if it does I think there's a very strong possibility of civil unrest. All the bilge coming out of the media is not the truth, most people are prepared for a hard Brexit but it's the buSINess people that are pulling strings trying to keep us in.

 

I have to admit, if I had a magic button that took us to a hard Brexit I'd press it. There would be 10 years of industrial and economic readjustment, but I think in the end it would be best. But if we don't take what's being offered (which I think is the most likely option), then I reckon those business people you mention would actually take us towards a complete remain.

 

I'm sorry, but the anarchist in me just likes the idea of a hard Brexit

[Patrick Brown]

1 minute ago, Miffymog said:

I'm sorry, but the anarchist in me just likes the idea of a hard Brexit

 

I've always wanted a hard Brexit. 

[Miffymog]

Cameron's old adviser says she'll fend off leadership challenges

Fail to get it through parliament

Then she'll be in a position to take it back to the people - hard Brexit or remain

Polls are very split on this outcome

[Patrick Brown]

2 hours ago, Miffymog said:

hard Brexit or remain

 

I'd accept a vote on that as I think people will still vote leave but if they don't that's fine I'll accept it.

 

I'll move to Australia if we stay in though! 

[Apech]

 

[Patrick Brown]

Farage Live as I type:

 

 

[Patrick Brown]

2 hours ago, Apech said:

 

 

It's the same old story of mud slinging with the politicians! As for the current draft most people are beginning to understand that the negotiations needed to be done by people that want to leave as well as having the appropriate negotiating skills needed. We're getting a picture of Theresa May constantly sticking her nose in and derailing the process. If the EU don't want to play ball then we should just move to WTO rules and get out ASAP. 

 

The test will be if the EU will allow, and are willing, to renegotiate aspects of the current deal. I think May and the EU we're deluded in the first place to think that nobody would notice that this current draft deal simply means remaining but with us having even less control!