Trump talk

[C T]

5 minutes ago, ilumairen said:

 

This caught my attention, and is worth noting. 

 

There is, and for a long time has been incentive, and we're surely watching the ways in which where the focus and incentive has been placed playing out.

 

Through government assistance we've actually incentivized a number of things, in unintentional ways. (Such as able bodied individuals finding it more palatable to live on government assistance.)

 

 

 

But the fact remains that these incentives were shoddily placed, henceforth abuse became rife. 

[Zork]

2 minutes ago, Lost in Translation said:

These are jobs that US citizens absolutely would do, but are being denied the opportunity because of the downward wage pressure.

There is no way one can find evidence to support this. It is a claim that cannot be verified or negated.

[Lost in Translation]

Just now, Zork said:

There is no way one can find evidence to support this. It is a claim that cannot be verified or negated.

 

If that is true then so is the opposite: the claim cannot be denied. Let's call it stalemate.

 

[ilumairen]

Just now, C T said:

 

But the fact remains that these incentives were shoddily placed, henceforth abuse became rife. 

 

What I presented was no argument, and in fact the observations shared would support what you've set forth. 

 

Shoddily placed incentive led to unintended consequences? Would this be more to your liking?

 

[ilumairen]

2 minutes ago, Zork said:

There is no way one can find evidence to support this. It is a claim that cannot be verified or negated.

 

Actually it could, if one was inclined to search out the information - which I am not.

[Zork]

Just now, Lost in Translation said:

 

If that is true then so is the opposite: the claim cannot be denied. Let's call it stalemate.

 

You don't understand. The burden of proof is on you, not me!

I cannot deny it but since you cannot support it you should have never mentioned it in the first place.

[Zork]

3 minutes ago, ilumairen said:

 

Actually it could, if one was inclined to search out the information - which I am not.

Is it even possible to find facts and numbers regarding UNREGISTERED people flying under the radar in the US???

Seriously??

Edited July 27, 2019 by Zork

[Lost in Translation]

1 minute ago, Zork said:

You don't understand. The burden of proof is on you, not me!

I cannot deny it but since you cannot support it you should have never mentioned it in the first place.

 

Let's think this through. There are hundreds of thousands of illegals entering the country each year. They take many jobs, and generally we know what sectors they work in. Do you really think that absent the illegal aliens those jobs would not be filled? That's an absurd assertion. Of course they would be filled, by US citizens! Employers would need to adjust, likely pay more money, but the jobs will be filled.

[ilumairen]

6 minutes ago, Zork said:

Is it even possible to find facts and numbers regarding UNREGISTERED people flying under the radar in the US???

Seriously??

 

If this is your chosen focus, then you could look into income tax filed without a social security number.. 

 

As I've already stated, I'm not inclined to go searching the available statistics and information.

 

Edit to add - you could also do a compare/contrast between the wages for general labor and hospitality jobs in states with large numbers of illegal immigrants and those without the same influx. Or you could do a timeline study of wages before and after (known) large numbers of illegal immigration, say in California or Florida.

 

Your query; your choice to investigate.

Edited July 27, 2019 by ilumairen

[Zork]

10 minutes ago, ilumairen said:

Edit to add - you could also do a compare/contrast between the wages for general labor and hospitality jobs in states with large numbers of illegal immigrants and those without the same influx. Or you could do a timeline study of wages before and after (known) large numbers of illegal immigration, say in California or Florida.

 

Your query; your choice to investigate.

I don't care. Plus all these are approximations, neither specific facts nor numbers.

[C T]

8 minutes ago, Lost in Translation said:

 

Let's think this through. There are hundreds of thousands of illegals entering the country each year. They take many jobs, and generally we know what sectors they work in. Do you really think that absent the illegal aliens those jobs would not be filled? That's an absurd assertion. Of course they would be filled, by US citizens! Employers would need to adjust, likely pay more money, but the jobs will be filled.

 

Some corporations would rather outsource/move operations overseas to save a few bucks. Their only moral obligation is to shareholders, not so much concerned with obligations to provide livelihood to domestic workers. Case in point: The fashion industry in the US generates an annual turnover of approx $45 billion, increasing yearly. I'd be interested to know what percentage of this turnover is shored within US-led local factories, and how much of it flows out to places like India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc. 

[ilumairen]

3 minutes ago, Zork said:

I don't care. Plus all these are approximations, neither specific facts nor numbers.

 

Well if you don't care, then why have we engaged in this apparently pointless discussion?

 

How oddly curious...

[Zork]

19 minutes ago, Lost in Translation said:

Do you really think that absent the illegal aliens those jobs would not be filled? That's an absurd assertion.

You really don't understand. It is basic economics. They might be or they might not depending on many factors.

You are assuming the answer.

[Zork]

2 minutes ago, ilumairen said:

 

Well if you don't care, then why have we engaged in this apparently pointless discussion?

 

How oddly curious...

I don't care about searching because the numbers will be off however i try.

Plus i have zero reason to do so not being actively involved in the US or paid to do so.

Edited July 27, 2019 by Zork

[ilumairen]

Just now, Zork said:

I don't care about searching because the numbers will be off however i try.

 

You'd still have more information, even if it isn't all the information, and this would reflect in any argument you chose to make.

 

Best wishes. 

[Zork]

4 minutes ago, ilumairen said:

 

You'd still have more information, even if it isn't all the information, and this would reflect in any argument you chose to make.

 

Best wishes. 

The burden of proof is not on me. So tell me again as a european citizen why should i bother?

Edited July 27, 2019 by Zork

[ilumairen]

1 minute ago, Zork said:

The burden of proof is not on me. So tell me again as a european citizen why should i bother?

 

You shouldn't bother if you aren't interested. 

[Zork]

Just now, ilumairen said:

 

You shouldn't bother if you aren't interested. 

Again the burden of proof isn't on me, so whether i am interested or not has nothing to do with the conversation.

What illegal, unregistered immigrants do in the US isn't provable and neither are  projections based on what might happen if they weren't there.

[ilumairen]

Just now, Zork said:

Again the burden of proof isn't on me, so whether i am interested or not has nothing to do with the conversation.

What illegal, unregistered immigrants do in the US isn't provable and neither are  projections based on what might happen if they weren't there.

 

My you do seem obstinate and determined, and I've lost interest in your (starting to seem like a temper tantrum of) demands for someone to hand you (what there is available regarding) the information you want.

 

If you want what's available, find it; if you don't, then don't. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy.  

[Zork]

8 minutes ago, ilumairen said:

 

My you do seem obstinate and determined, and I've lost interest in your (starting to seem like a temper tantrum of) demands for someone to hand you (what there is available regarding) the information you want.

 

If you want what's available, find it; if you don't, then don't. Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy.  

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)

Read it. Then comment.

As for your interest: i don't care. Should i?

[ilumairen]

Blah, blah, blah... 

 

I wasn't arguing, only pointing to where you could find some information, and therefore I carry no burden, nor do I accept the burden you'd like to place upon me.

 

Take care.

[Lost in Translation]

16 minutes ago, Zork said:

You really don't understand. It is basic economics. They might be or they might not depending on many factors.

You are assuming the answer.

 

I'll grant that there is not universal agreement on this. That said, here are some quotes on the subject:

 

 

This article discusses the relationship immigration has on wages, particularly low-skilled immigration as seen by illegal migrants.

 

Quote

We don’t need to rely on complex statistical calculations to see the harm being done to some workers. Simply look at how employers have reacted. A decade ago, Crider Inc., a chicken processing plant in Georgia, was raided by immigration agents, and 75 percent of its workforce vanished over a single weekend. Shortly after, Crider placed an ad in the local newspaper announcing job openings at higher wages. 

 

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/trump-clinton-immigration-economy-unemployment-jobs-214216

 

This article discusses the elasticity of wages as pertains to illegal aliens. The gist is that illegals will work for any wage, no matter how small.

 

Quote

We normally think of both income and substitution effects when thinking about wages. The first is the idea that there's some income we think we need to make and we'll work until we do so. The second is that we find other things interesting in life as well, over and above work, and what we get paid to work has to be higher than that value. Otherwise we won't work. Near perfectly inelastic means that the income effect is entirely dominating here: there's almost no substitution going on. Even if we offer $2 an hour and that's the only work going then the illegals will do that rather than going fishing as we would.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/03/24/illegal-immigrants-depress-wages-so-make-them-legal-immigrants/#7acdb3963fea

 

Here's an article that claims uncertainty regarding the wage debate as pertains to illegals. It's from NPR, a source I consider heavily biased towards the left, but I am including it out of intellectual fairness.

 

Quote

The question:

Have immigrants taken jobs from and lowered wages for American blue-collar workers?

 

The short answer:

Economists disagree whether or how much an influx of immigrants depresses wages. Some have found that new immigrants depress wages for certain groups, such as teenagers or workers with a high school diploma or less. Others say the overall effect on the economy is tiny, and an influx of immigrant workers vitalizes the economy overall.

Either way, the forces driving wage reductions for blue-collar workers go far beyond immigration.

 

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/04/541321716/fact-check-have-low-skilled-immigrants-taken-american-jobs

 

Here's an article that seems biased towards the right. Maybe it's just the unpolished writing.

 

Quote

Do illegal immigrants take jobs from American workers?

Yes, illegal immigrant workers have taken millions of jobs from
American workers.

 

If illegal immigrant workers had been kept out of our country, the
employers would have had to pay higher wages to attract American
workers.

 

The American workers are unable to work for the low wages that many
illegal immigrants are willing to work for.

 

http://jobsback.com/do-illegal-immigrants-take-jobs-from-american-workers/

 

Here's an older (30 years) article from the General Accounting Office (GAO). This is probably the fairest treatment on the issue.

 

Quote

1. Do illegal alien workers depress wages and worsen working conditions for native and legal workers?

 

With regard to the first question, our answer is a qualified “yes.” Our major finding, based primarily on results from nine case studies, is that illegal aliens do, in some cases, exert downward pressure on wages and working conditions within low-wage, low-skilled jobs in certain labor markets. The four case studies that supported this finding examined illegal alien workers in competition for the same jobs with legal or native workers. Competing native or legal agricultural workers, food processing workers, and janitors in specific labor markets suffered depressed wages or worsened working conditions as employers in these sectors began to hire a higher percentage of illegal workers.

 

In three other sectors and labor markets, the effect of illegal workers on legal or native workers’ wages and working conditions overall could not be determined. The five case studies on these sectors or markets provided evidence that the increased supply of workers for some job categories, in some business and industry sectors such as the garment industry, depressed wages for some native or legal workers but, at the same time, by stimulating business, also expanded employment opportunities and wages for other legal and native workers in complementary, usually skilled occupations. None of these studies, however, permitted an assessment of net effects. This suggests that the effects of illegal workers on the wages and working conditions of native or legal workers are not automatically in the direction of depressing those conditions, and that those effects depend on a number of factors, of which the illegal status of the workers is one.

 

We found that two other types of evidence-wage data on illegal workers and wage data on workers in communities that differed on the presence of international migrants-were overall not useful for addressing the first question. Although some of these wage data were consistent with case study evidence indicating that illegal alien workers can exert downward pressure on wages within low-wage, low-skilled jobs in certain labor markets, they are open to different interpretations. We examined wage data on illegal alien workers and wage data on workers in communities that differed on the presence of international migrants because they are used in policy debates on the effects of illegal alien workers on the labor market.

 

https://www.gao.gov/assets/80/76971.pdf

 

This article staunchly rebukes the notion that illegals work on sectors that citizens do not work.

 

Quote

The defenders of illegal aliens — ethnic advocacy groups, business lobbyists, and some religious organizations — often assert that illegal aliens only take jobs Americans “will not do.” This is patently false because they are working in jobs in which U.S. workers are also employed — whether in construction, agricultural harvesting, or service professions. In fact, as one study demonstrates, “of the 474 civilian occupations, only six are majority immigrant (legal and illegal).”

 

This article details the effects of illegal aliens on wages, jobs, and job conditions.

 

Quote

It is often said by supporters of illegal, low-skill immigrants that the U.S. economy needs such laborers because they do the kinds of work that Americans will not do. But Cappelli calls that assertion a “complete myth.” Immigrants have been hired to do such jobs in such large numbers, not because Americans refuse them, but because Americans are not willing to perform such tasks where the wages are lower than they would otherwise be, where work rules may not exist and where the working conditions may be hazardous. Many employers seek illegal workers for the simple reason that it keeps costs down and means the companies do not have to invest in equipment and other capital improvements. Relative wage levels for low-skill and unskilled American workers, according to Cappelli, have plummeted over the past generation and show no signs of rising.

 

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-immigration-debate-its-impact-on-workers-wages-and-employers/

 

An article detailing the downward push of illegal workers on jobs and wages. This article seems amateurish, so it's probably biased.

 

Quote

The MSM report ad nauseam that illegal aliens are only "doing work that Americans won't." This mantra is mercilessly bandied about by illegal immigration supporters and echoes throughout the halls of Congress and the White House whenever the topic comes up. What is never mentioned, however, is that the illegal aliens are artificially depressing compensation and that illegal aliens are the only ones who will do the work at such low wages. In actual fact, illegal immigration distorts the law of supply and demand in a capitalistic society. Additionally it is grossly hypocritical to want to raise the minimum wage on one hand while the other hand winks at illegal aliens working at far below prevailing wages.

 

http://www.usillegalaliens.com/impacts_of_illegal_immigration_jobs.html

 

This wasn't really how I wanted to spend my Saturday morning... 

[C T]

There are dollars to be made from illegal immigration. Taxable dollars that feed the economy. Its no wonder one of the first things Trump made the DOJ do after he assumed office was to reverse the ruling on the curtailment of detention centres operated by private corpos (reports indicate these firms lobbied for his election). 

 

Quote

 

The rise in the number of illegal immigrants in the United States over the past ten years—from five to twelve million—has led to concerns about the effects of illegal immigration on wages and public finances, as well as the potential security threats posed by unauthorized entry into the country.

 

In this Council Special Report (The Economic Logic of Illegal Immigration), Professor Gordon H. Hanson of the University of California, San Diego approaches immigration through the lens of economics. The results are surprising. By focusing on the economic costs and benefits of legal and illegal immigration, Professor Hanson concludes that stemming illegal immigration would likely lead to a net drain on the U.S. economy—a finding that calls into question many of the proposals to increase funding for border protection. Moreover, Hanson argues that guest worker programs now being considered by Congress fail to account for the economic incentives that drive illegal immigration, which benefits both the undocumented workers who desire to work and live in the United States and employers who want flexible, low-cost labor. Hanson makes the case that unless policymakers design a system of legal immigration that reflects the economic advantages of illegal labor, such programs will not significantly reduce illegal immigration. He concludes with guidelines crucial to any such redesign of U.S. laws and policy. In short, Professor Hanson has written a report that will challenge much of the wisdom (conventional and otherwise) on the economics behind a critical and controversial issue.

 

 

[dawei]

1 hour ago, C T said:

There are dollars to be made from illegal immigration. Taxable dollars that feed the economy. Its no wonder one of the first things Trump made the DOJ do after he assumed office was to reverse the ruling on the curtailment of detention centres operated by private corpos (reports indicate these firms lobbied for his election). 

 

I find this an interesting issue and can see the economic benefit... but if we released everyone from prison, won't we also see more people contribute to the economy as well ?

 

But the point is about the illegal immigrants.  It has a pesky problem of law as well.   While I do agree with the economic view, this seems double talk:

 

Hanson makes the case that unless policymakers design a system of legal immigration that reflects the economic advantages of illegal labor, such programs will not significantly reduce illegal immigration. 

 

legal immigration that reflects illegal labor... I had to read that a few times.

 

So his argument is: if we allowed for illegal labor we would reduce illegal immigration?    I must be reading that wrong as that would become an open border issue, yes ?

[C T]

43 minutes ago, dawei said:

 

I find this an interesting issue and can see the economic benefit... but if we released everyone from prison, won't we also see more people contribute to the economy as well ?

 

But the point is about the illegal immigrants.  It has a pesky problem of law as well.   While I do agree with the economic view, this seems double talk:

 

 

 

 

legal immigration that reflects illegal labor... I had to read that a few times.

 

So his argument is: if we allowed for illegal labor we would reduce illegal immigration?    I must be reading that wrong as that would become an open border issue, yes ?

 

The report might interest you, and help answer some of your questions. 

 

https://www.cfr.org/report/economic-logic-illegal-immigration