Taomeow Posted January 8, 2020 Thirty minutes ago, a Ukrainian Boeing 737 carrying 180 passengers on board has crashed near Iran's Imam Khomeini airport. 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nungali Posted January 8, 2020 What a coincidence ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nungali Posted January 8, 2020 3 hours ago, ralis said: Trump brought this on without one thought of potential consequences! " The reckless disregard for the consequences that would surely follow ..... " @ 0: 28 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zork Posted January 8, 2020 4 hours ago, ralis said: Trump brought this on without one thought of potential consequences! What i am (and most of non-US citizens) concerned about isn't US troops on foreign soil but the consequences of a large scale missile attack on S.Arabia. If oil reaches 200$ a barrel that is an apocalypse in itself. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Taomeow Posted January 8, 2020 Iran is attempting suicide by cop? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Taomeow said: Iran is attempting suicide by cop? No. Politically Iran has no choice but to retaliate and the US knew this when they murdered Gen. Soleimani. If, as some are saying, there were no US casualties that might be for the best... and maybe even by design. Supposedly when Iran shot down that ridiculously expensive drone last year, Trump secretly begged Iran to let him bomb an empty beach just to tell people at home he retaliated. Iran said no at that time. Maybe something similar happened here and the US was forewarned about the bases. Edited January 8, 2020 by SirPalomides Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) Journalist Elijah Magnier- whom I find consistently well-informed and reliable on these matters- is saying the missile attacks were intended as symbolic. If they wanted to inflict serious casualties they could still do so quite easily. Iran’s foreign minister called it an act of self-defense and insisted that it was not intended as escalation. Trump is playing it down so far, which suggests he got the message. Edited January 8, 2020 by SirPalomides 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Zork said: What i am (and most of non-US citizens) concerned about isn't US troops on foreign soil but the consequences of a large scale missile attack on S.Arabia. If oil reaches 200$ a barrel that is an apocalypse in itself. Saudi and UAE are very easy targets, and yes, it would be disastrous for everyone. Remember how much havoc there was last year when a few drones attacked the Saudi oil fields. That was a very small foretaste of the pain Iran could inflict if forced to. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zork Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, SirPalomides said: Journalist Elijah Magnier- whom I find consistently well-informed and reliable on these matters- is saying the missile attacks were intended as symbolic. If they wanted to inflict serious casualties they could still do so quite easily. Iran’s foreign minister called it an act of self-defense and insisted that it was not intended as escalation. Trump is playing it down so far, which suggests he got the message. It can escalate pretty quickly if Trump decides to bomb uranium enrichment facilities. It remains to be seen if and when the Iranians will develop nuclear capabilities and most importantly what will happen if they do. (it basically comes down to either WW3 or permanent stalemate of nukes between Israel and Iran.) The agreement that prevented the Iranians from enriching uranium is pretty much dead after the death of Soleimani. Edited January 8, 2020 by Zork Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moment Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) An incredibly complex soup: Egypt, on Friday denounced protesters’ attack on the US embassy in Baghdad. Egypt has security agreements with Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Saudi Arabia has security agreements with the USA. Saudi Arabia's military is considered the equal of Iran. A very large majority of Egyptians hold a favorable opinion of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia hates Iran. The above barely scratches the surface of the Gordian Knot that is the Middle East! Edited January 8, 2020 by moment Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 And Egypt is on course for a proxy war with Turkey in Libya. Fun times. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, moment said: Saudi Arabia's military is considered the equal of Iran. I have to say something here: No. No they are not. Saudi Arabia's military is a joke. Yes, they have some very expensive gear but they can't fight. They have already been humiliated by half-starved, lightly armed Yemeni militia who run circles (sometimes quite literally) around Saudi troops and bypass their expensive air defense systems with cheap drones. Many of Saudi's infantry are mercenaries from the Sahel or elsewhere. For a Saudi citizen, a job in the military was until recently just a way to respectably collect a paycheck. Actual fighting is not supposed to happen. A war simply between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be quite one-sided and Saudi Arabia would be finished in a matter of weeks. That's why that war will never happen, and Saudi Arabia needs American backing. Edited January 8, 2020 by SirPalomides 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moment Posted January 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, SirPalomides said: I have to say something here: No. No they are not. Saudi Arabia's military is a joke. Yes, they have some very expensive gear but they can't fight. They have already been humiliated by half-starved, lightly armed Yemeni militia who run circles (sometimes quite literally) around Saudi troops and bypass their expensive air defense systems with cheap drones. A war simply between Saudi Arabia and Iran would be quite one-sided and Saudi Arabia would be finished in a matter of weeks. That's why that war will never happen, and Saudi Arabia needs American backing. I will concede that as true only if Egypt or the USA never got involved-- which they would. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) Yes, but even in that war Saudi Arabia is toast. The Persian Gulf is narrow and thoroughly mapped- you can be sure every desalination plant and every oil facility has ballistic missiles precisely targeted at it just in case. This goes for the UAE too. And even if the US missile defense systems hadn't already been proven ineffective (which they have) Iran has enough swarms of missiles to overload these systems. This is before we even mention Hezbollah, PMU, the Houthis, and other allies that we probably don't even know about, along with a large Saudi Shia population who really, really hate their government. This is why, even if Iran gets crushed, they will take the rest of us with them. That is why this war is such a stupid and crazy idea. Edited January 8, 2020 by SirPalomides 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thelerner Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) Look at how much the US has frickin lost if one of Trumps brags is true, ie 'We just spent 2 Trillion dollars on military hardware'.. I'm not against having a strong military, but do we need to be #1 through #6 7** in the world (as far as spending?). That trillion or two could have been used for infrastructure, schools, science, health care, job training.. Instead it'll be used to blowup $6 trillion dollars worth of stuff. Can't help thinkin we'd be stronger with a weaker military, spending that extra trillion or two on things that increase the general welfare, and relying on only having the #1 military, instead of #1-7. Relying on allies, coalitions, diplomacy and a good reputation if war is ever needed. **https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison Edited January 8, 2020 by thelerner 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moment Posted January 8, 2020 24 minutes ago, SirPalomides said: Yes, but even in that war Saudi Arabia is toast. The Persian Gulf is narrow and thoroughly mapped- you can be sure every desalination plant and every oil facility has ballistic missiles precisely targeted at it just in case. This goes for the UAE too. And even if the US missile defense systems hadn't already been proven ineffective (which they have) Iran has enough swarms of missiles to overload these systems. This is before we even mention Hezbollah, PMU, the Houthis, and other allies that we probably don't even know about, along with a large Saudi Shia population who really, really hate their government. This is why, even if Iran gets crushed, they will take the rest of us with them. That is why this war is such a stupid and crazy idea. I agree! That is why a total war in the middle east is unlikely because both Iran and Saudi Arabia would not survive it and they know it. The leaders in both countries are all about keeping their power. After a war like that, they would have virtually none. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moment Posted January 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, thelerner said: Look at how much the US has frickin lost if one of Trumps brags is true, ie 'We just spent 2 Trillion dollars on military hardware'.. I'm not against having a strong military, but do we need to be #1 through #6 7** in the world (as far as spending?). That trillion or two could have been used for infrastructure, schools, science, general welfare, job training.. Instead it'll be used to blowup $6 trillion dollars worth of stuff. Can't help thinkin we'd be stronger with a weaker military, spending that extra trillion or two on things that increase the general welfare, and relying on only having the #1 military, instead of #1-7. Relying on allies, coalitions, diplomacy and a good reputation if war is ever needed. **https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison I agree with you completely! All of the great powers are run by a few very ambitious individuals.-- Buckminster Fuller Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ralis Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) Some of you have seen this while others have not. Eisenhower warned about the future threat of the Military Industrial Complex. Edited January 8, 2020 by ralis 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ralis Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) The Middle East problem is complicated and goes back to 1907 with the Anglo-Russian Convention as well as the United States putting the Shah in power. The bottom line is a war for oil! I usually don't rely on Wiki, but this is a place to start. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Russian_Convention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'état Edited January 8, 2020 by ralis 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Taomeow Posted January 8, 2020 6 hours ago, Taomeow said: Iran is attempting suicide by cop? 6 hours ago, SirPalomides said: No. Politically Iran has no choice but to retaliate and the US knew this when they murdered Gen. Soleimani. If, as some are saying, there were no US casualties that might be for the best... and maybe even by design. Supposedly when Iran shot down that ridiculously expensive drone last year, Trump secretly begged Iran to let him bomb an empty beach just to tell people at home he retaliated. Iran said no at that time. Maybe something similar happened here and the US was forewarned about the bases. Ah, so a criminal colluding with a corrupt cop. Don't mind me. They say this about science but it fully applies to politics: if you can't explain your theory in simple words to a five-year-old, it is wrong. I can. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zork Posted January 8, 2020 14 minutes ago, ralis said: The Middle East problem is complicated and goes back to 1907 with the Anglo-Russian Convention as well as the United States putting the Shah in power. The bottom line is a war for oil! I usually don't rely on Wiki, but this is a place to start. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Russian_Convention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'état Operation Ajax was the reason Iran is at this terrible condition today. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Taomeow said: Ah, so a criminal colluding with a corrupt cop. Don't mind me. They say this about science but it fully applies to politics: if you can't explain your theory in simple words to a five-year-old, it is wrong. I can. Okay then. So have you explained Alberto Rivera's theories about the Jesuits to any 5-year-olds lately? Edited January 8, 2020 by SirPalomides Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Taomeow Posted January 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, SirPalomides said: Okay then. So have you explained Alberto Rivera's theories about the Jesuits to any 5-year-olds lately? Oh, now I remember who you are. The poster of antisemitic crap? Fuck off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Taomeow said: Oh, now I remember who you are. The poster of antisemitic crap? Fuck off. …. I'm sorry? Where did I post any anti-Semitic crap? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SirPalomides Posted January 8, 2020 For what it's worth, Taomeow, I think your contributions to the forum are valuable and I respect you. But accusing me of anti-Semitic crap... well, I've only made 150 posts to the forum, so it should be pretty easy to produce examples of that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
