nCov19 Development and Prevention Discussion Only

[rideforever]

BBC : 2nd wave hits South Korea, China, Singapore

CV should not even be a big deal ... as it's 70+ generation who are dying ... it's a small problem for society.

If the army creates field hospitals then the NHS overload can be dealt with.

As for the old people they take any antivrals and sit and hope.

Then 3 months later there is herd immunity and its done.

- that's my view -

But reality will assert itself .... say if in 7 days it is clear the entire country has got it ... and that the NHS is already overloaded .... then the army will come and nature will take its course.

Maybe it's worth the Government giving it a shot to close down the country ... but ... can you stop the normal flu ?  No.
Soon enough we will see if any action can be effective or whether you prepare for nature.

 

[Apech]

10 minutes ago, rideforever said:

BBC : 2nd wave hits South Korea, China, Singapore

CV should not even be a big deal ... as it's 70+ generation who are dying ... it's a small problem for society.

If the army creates field hospitals then the NHS overload can be dealt with.

As for the old people they take any antivrals and sit and hope.

Then 3 months later there is herd immunity and its done.

- that's my view -

But reality will assert itself .... say if in 7 days it is clear the entire country has got it ... and that the NHS is already overloaded .... then the army will come and nature will take its course.

Maybe it's worth the Government giving it a shot to close down the country ... but ... can you stop the normal flu ?  No.
Soon enough we will see if any action can be effective or whether you prepare for nature.

 

 

the purpose of the government measures - social distancing and so on - is to slow down the rate of increase in infections and flatten the overall profile to limit as far as possible the peak which threatens to overload the health services.  All scenarios rely on herd immunity building up to limit further spread.  Even when a vaccine comes online it will probably only be used for high risk people and front line staff.  

[rideforever]

30 minutes ago, Apech said:

the purpose of the government measures - social distancing and so on - is to slow down the rate of increase in infections and flatten the overall profile to limit as far as possible the peak which threatens to overload the health services.  All scenarios rely on herd immunity building up to limit further spread.  Even when a vaccine comes online it will probably only be used for high risk people and front line staff.  

 

The problem with this is that the NHS is already overloaded and in the models predicting the scenario of flattening as you suggest there are 8 patients for 1 bed, therefore is we use models  to determine our action .... then we already need field hospitals at the peak we cannot avoid it.

Worse than that, because we don't go through at the same time, the immunity wears off, and then you get secondary tertiary waves inside the country ... as one part of the country's immunity wears off, and another part gets it.

That means people will get it in several waves which is more dangerous.

Our herd immunity works ... but if you fuck with it, it will not work.

The old people are best aided by being given large doses of anti-virals and going through with the herd now, and it's done in a few weeks.

Otherwise they will be at risk for maybe 3 years ... we will lose more of them, you are just torturing their immune systems.

Of course the entire economy will be destroyed, bankruptcy and unemployment and national debt.

 

So ... I am all for giving lockdown "a go", so let's see what happens, it doesn't look to me that it is going to work, better to assist nature instead.  Let herd immunity work, make it short and do what needs to be done now.

That's my view.

[Apech]

26 minutes ago, rideforever said:

 

The problem with this is that the NHS is already overloaded and in the models predicting the scenario of flattening as you suggest there are 8 patients for 1 bed, therefore is we use models  to determine our action .... then we already need field hospitals at the peak we cannot avoid it.

Worse than that, because we don't go through at the same time, the immunity wears off, and then you get secondary tertiary waves inside the country ... as one part of the country's immunity wears off, and another part gets it.

That means people will get it in several waves which is more dangerous.

Our herd immunity works ... but if you fuck with it, it will not work.

The old people are best aided by being given large doses of anti-virals and going through with the herd now, and it's done in a few weeks.

Otherwise they will be at risk for maybe 3 years ... we will lose more of them, you are just torturing their immune systems.

Of course the entire economy will be destroyed, bankruptcy and unemployment and national debt.

 

So ... I am all for giving lockdown "a go", so let's see what happens, it doesn't look to me that it is going to work, better to assist nature instead.  Let herd immunity work, make it short and do what needs to be done now.

That's my view.

 

 

Second the third waves are not because the immunity wears off but because there are still people in the population who haven't had the disease yet.  Hopefully vaccines and treatments will be available by then.

[doc benway]

8 hours ago, Earl Grey said:

We could try to be nicer and listen to people who know what they're doing too...but we also shouldn't post misinformation and outright stupid crap either. 

 

Pretty much my point.

Many of us do tend to be reactive and impulsive in our posting.

And misinformation and stupid crap to one is insight and obviously useful to another.

Lots of unnecessary criticism and personal insults thrown around in multiple threads.

And to tie it in to the topic of this thread, as we are locked down more and more let's try to be a supportive and friendly place where people can get a little relief from what's going on in the world rather than a place where emotions get inflamed and the tension and conflict boil over and stoke the flames even more.

[Phantalor]

You know, the sad thing is purely from the medical POV @rideforever is right. 

Also as mentioned before, the Lockdown as it is intended would only begin to show signs of working in around 14 Days, so you can at least expect exponential growth for the next 14 days.

[Miffymog]

Lots of good points going back and forth here that I’m enjoying reading.

 

At the beginning the authorities were trying to take control of the situation, but now the situation has taken control by itself.

 

You can hear in their voices (this included Boris Johnson and Donald Trump) how they are actually worried / scared about what direction this situation will take, even if their words don’t always match this sentiment.

 

Lucky for me, this has not yet had any direct impact on my life, other than the town is much quieter and the museums are closed. But not the local library – hurrah!

 

I have to admit, I’m much rather just catch it now and get it over and done with as I’m now as prepared as I’m going to get.

 

Last night I thought I might have it as started getting a persistent dry cough, only to realise that it was simply a consequence of my turning on my electric heater.

 

Herd immunity / over burdened health services – will all be played out over the next few weeks / months. We will see what happens.

[moment]

19 hours ago, rideforever said:

 

If you send kids home then their grandparents will have to look after them whilst parents are at work.
Which will kill the grandparents.

Children and young people very rarely get infected so they should stay at school and not hang around at home infecting the older generations.

 

Children are probably potential carriers, they just tend to be asymptomatic, which has its' own type of assiduousness.  It will take much more testing to sort that all out.

[rideforever]

2 hours ago, Apech said:

Second the third waves are not because the immunity wears off but because there are still people in the population who haven't had the disease yet.  Hopefully vaccines and treatments will be available by then.

 

That's not correct ; why is the flu shot recommended each year ... because it wears off.

Flattening the curve will result in long term immune damage as you are infected multiple times.

Furthermore if we have live infections coming in waves for 3+ years it will give the virus time to morph into new strains.   This is exaclty what causes super bugs mrsa etc.. ... it is the long term interference with natural mecanisms.

Hopefully science is gonna save us !!! Haleluja !

 

Consider this ... if you cut yourself and go to hospital, you might say "oh the doc patched me up".
But in fact the healing of your wounds happens at the molecular level and is done by the body using incredibly small and complex processes : our "science" is a joke compared to the power of nature within ourselves.

It is the body that heals, the doctor only plays a small part.
What we are really dealing with is damaging that healing power trough our own complete ignorance.

 

@moment "Children are probably potential carriers, they just tend to be asymptomatic, which has its' own type of assiduousness.  It will take much more testing to sort that all out."

 

No doubt ... they can carry the virus, get immunity, and not die from it.  So no problem.
Why would you close the schools then ?
The kids will be looked after .... by parents or grandparents ?

Anyone see a problem there ?
 

Can you imagine if this virus was actually dangerous ?!!!!  

If the problem is NHS beds ... then just deal with that problem with field hospitals ... don't create 50 more problems.

I am still wondering if there is any problem at all ... we get hit with flus and coranviruses every year, some years very badly.  So what?  In the winter old people die.

 

Anyway, I am just expressing a view ... it is probably worth trying some drastic action, why not.  If it doesn't work they will know soon enoug.

 

Consider the UK Government is rolling out £330 BN in stimulus.

But £2 BN would be enough for 20 field hospitals in the UK.

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by rideforever

[rideforever]

Washington State Field Hospitals

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/king-county-to-put-200-bed-field-hospital-on-shoreline-soccer-field-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/

[Apech]

10 minutes ago, rideforever said:

 

That's not correct ; why is the flu shot recommended each year ... because it wears off.

Flattening the curve will result in long term immune damage as you are infected multiple times.

Furthermore if we have live infections coming in waves for 3+ years it will give the virus time to morph into new strains.   This is exaclty what causes super bugs mrsa etc.. ... it is the long term interference with natural mecanisms.

Hopefully science is gonna save us !!! Haleluja !

 

Consider this ... if you cut yourself and go to hospital, you might say "oh the doc patched me up".
But in fact the healing of your wounds happens at the molecular level and is done by the body using incredibly small and complex processes : our "science" is a joke compared to the power of nature within ourselves.

It is the body that heals, the doctor only plays a small part.
What we are really dealing with is damaging that healing power trough our own complete ignorance.

 

@moment "Children are probably potential carriers, they just tend to be asymptomatic, which has its' own type of assiduousness.  It will take much more testing to sort that all out."

 

No doubt ... they can carry the virus, get immunity, and not die from it.  So no problem.
Why would you close the schools then ?
The kids will be looked after .... by parents or grandparents ?

Anyone see a problem there ?
 

Can you imagine if this virus was actually dangerous ?!!!!  

If the problem is NHS beds ... then just deal with that problem with field hospitals ... don't create 50 more problems.

I am still wondering if there is any problem at all ... we get hit with flus and coranviruses every year, some years very badly.  So what?  In the winter old people die.

 

Anyway, I am just expressing a view ... it is probably worth trying some drastic action, why not.  If it doesn't work they will know soon enoug.

 

Consider the UK Government is rolling out £330 BN in stimulus.

But £2 BN would be enough for 20 field hospitals in the UK.

 

 

Although it varies from disease to disease immunity from actually having the disease is usually either lifelong or at least long term - while vaccinations can wear off and require boosting.  Herd immunity comes from people actually having the disease.

[Phantalor]

11 minutes ago, rideforever said:

That's not correct ; why is the flu shot recommended each year ... because it wears off.

Flattening the curve will result in long term immune damage as you are infected multiple times.

Furthermore if we have live infections coming in waves for 3+ years it will give the virus time to morph into new strains.   This is exaclty what causes super bugs mrsa etc.. ... it is the long term interference with natural mecanisms.

Hopefully science is gonna save us !!! Haleluja !

 

Ahem ... no ?

 

Flu shot is recommended because flu mutates fast enough, that you have around 4 to 6 new different strains every year. 

If you speak about immunity wearing off, you have more or less to talk in 10 Year timespans, the only problem is the kind of vaccine, as there are ones which build up something like perpetual immunity and these that give short term immunity. The problem with the perpetual ones is, that you actually have to get infected...

also mrsa has nothing to do with vaccines ....

 

Anyways, what started as a good point from you is starting to deteroriate 

[moment]

38 minutes ago, rideforever said:

 

That's not correct ; why is the flu shot recommended each year ... because it wears off.

Flattening the curve will result in long term immune damage as you are infected multiple times.

Furthermore if we have live infections coming in waves for 3+ years it will give the virus time to morph into new strains.   This is exaclty what causes super bugs mrsa etc.. ... it is the long term interference with natural mecanisms.

Hopefully science is gonna save us !!! Haleluja !

 

Consider this ... if you cut yourself and go to hospital, you might say "oh the doc patched me up".
But in fact the healing of your wounds happens at the molecular level and is done by the body using incredibly small and complex processes : our "science" is a joke compared to the power of nature within ourselves.

It is the body that heals, the doctor only plays a small part.
What we are really dealing with is damaging that healing power trough our own complete ignorance.

 

@moment "Children are probably potential carriers, they just tend to be asymptomatic, which has its' own type of assiduousness.  It will take much more testing to sort that all out."

 

No doubt ... they can carry the virus, get immunity, and not die from it.  So no problem.
Why would you close the schools then ?
The kids will be looked after .... by parents or grandparents ?

Anyone see a problem there ?
 

Can you imagine if this virus was actually dangerous ?!!!!  

If the problem is NHS beds ... then just deal with that problem with field hospitals ... don't create 50 more problems.

I am still wondering if there is any problem at all ... we get hit with flus and coranviruses every year, some years very badly.  So what?  In the winter old people die.

 

Anyway, I am just expressing a view ... it is probably worth trying some drastic action, why not.  If it doesn't work they will know soon enoug.

 

Consider the UK Government is rolling out £330 BN in stimulus.

But £2 BN would be enough for 20 field hospitals in the UK.

 

 

Because in school, they have more opportunity, to become carriers and make other carriers and then they take it home to parents/grandparents/etc. on a much wider scale.

Edited March 19, 2020 by moment

[thelerner]

2 hours ago, Phantalor said:

You know, the sad thing is purely from the medical POV @rideforever is right. 

Also as mentioned before, the Lockdown as it is intended would only begin to show signs of working in around 14 Days, so you can at least expect exponential growth for the next 14 days.

I won't disagree, but the strategy here is to slow down the 'slope' of the bell curve.  So hospitals get less overwhelmed.  This virus may be like an ocean surge against a dike, but making the dike a little higher and plugging some holes gives people (hospitals) time to prepare for the deluge.  In this case it means spreading it out so more hospital beds and preparations can be created.  Shared solutions can be thought of, seeing what works other places.  With a little time, effort, money and creativity we can expand the number of beds. 

 

The deluge will hit, social isolation will mostly crumble.  The majority will end up being exposed, but buying time should mean more elderly will have a chance for treatment.  I hope people flattening the curve probably means longer total time before herd immunity kicks in but the hope is this methodology saves more lives.  Especially with the hope of some treatment and small hope of vaccines in the near future.  Maybe even warmer weather will slow down the rise. 

[Starjumper]

Gun sales are way up in the US this last month.

 

[moment]

 Coronavirus survives on surfaces up to 72 hours. Here’s how to protect yourself

By SHARON BEGLEY @sxbegle

MARCH 19, 2020

 

Viruses didn’t become ubiquitous by being wimps: From the rhinoviruses that cause the common cold to the new coronavirus that has spread across the world, they are able to survive on surfaces far away from the living cells that they need in order to reproduce.

How long they can lurk before a living organism comes along to infect depends on the kind of surface and the properties of the virus: The Covid-19 virus, according to a new study, sticks around on plastic surfaces for up to three days, but for a shorter period on metals.

Rhinoviruses can survive on human skin for hours, which is why shaking hands with someone who has a cold is a good way to catch it. Influenza viruses remain infectious for up to 48 hours after landing on nonporous surfaces such as stainless steel or plastic such as that in computer keyboards, but that seems like the outer limit: A 2011 study found that the H1N1 flu virus that caused the 2009 pandemic could be recovered from glass, stainless steel, plastic, and aluminum for up to 48 hours, but most was gone after nine hours. Both cold and flu viruses survive for much shorter times on porous surfaces such as cloth, paper, or tissue, with very little infectious virus remaining after four hours.

 

Viruses covered in “envelopes” have the most trouble surviving outside a living cell. On surfaces, the surrounding light, heat, and dryness break down the envelope, killing the virus. (Porous surfaces pull moisture away from viruses that land on them, accelerating the destruction of the envelope.) Most rhinoviruses have such envelopes; so do some influenza viruses. Norovirus doesn’t, enabling it to last longer in the environment.

Then there’s the new coronavirus. Its survival on surfaces is similar to that of the SARS virus, to which it’s related. On plastic, after eight hours only 10% of what researchers deposited was still there, according to a study published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. But the virus didn’t become undetectable until after 72 hours. On stainless steel, the numbers began plummeting after just four hours, becoming undetectable by about 48 hours. On copper and cardboard, virus was undetectable by eight hours and 48 hours, respectively.

The fewer the virus particles on a surface, the lower the chances that someone touching it will become infected. But because the virus that causes Covid-19 is, like other microbes, so durable, throughly washing hands after touching surfaces that anyone else might have touched — or not touching them in the first place — is the first line of defense against infection.

[Spotless]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/16/coronavirus-people-line-up-gun-stores-stock-up/5054436002/

 

Gun sales are up as they have been for decades now as the sewer minds of the evangelicals has spread and been empowered by the right wing dis-ease. Not only the corona virus is doing this but the extrapolation that the chance of a Democrat winning the Presidency has just jumped up considerably.

 

The evangelicals actively and openly teach that democrats are “of the devil” and they absolutely live in the embrace of a very soon to come apocalypse. 
 

The NRA actively promotes along with the preppers (those constantly preparing for the end times which they believe we are in) that evil democrats are going to take their guns away - despite the fact that Bush Jr. a Republican had guns confiscated during the Katrina disaster by force door to door with federal, state and local troops. Despite the fact that open carry laws and relaxation of gun laws took place at an unprecedented level during the Obama administration.

 

At the hint of a possible democrat at the helm, gun and ammo sales have gone through the roof for decades now. They are fully prepared for civil war and want it to happen. We actually do face a serious possible dilemma in the next election:

What to do if Trump refuses to leave office if he loses?

[Apech]

Some clarity on immunity and vaccination in first part of this video:

 

 

[Spotless]

At Trader Joe’s today my wife’s mother received a free bouquet 💐 of flowers!

 

They are giving away their flowers to people here and there that they notice are not hoarding!

 

They came up to her and said “ you’re not hoarding” and then came back with the flowers and explained they were giving the flowers away to shoppers not hoarding 😎🌞👍

Edited March 19, 2020 by Spotless

[thelerner]

Just back from Trader Joe's myself.  They had ground chicken and ground turkey, lots of other meats but no ground beef, not even in the frozen section, but they did have frozen burgers- beef or turkey.  No hand disinfectant or toilet paper; they did have a sign up in that section saying 'Please don't hoard'. Imo there's no shortage, just people grabbing too many.  Other then that they seemed fully stocked.

 

It was medium crowded.  To my dismay, no free snacks, but that should been predictable.   I didn't get no flowers either, but I like Trader Joes for there friendly service and for most things, they have only 1 type, thus its efficient.  Grab and go, whereas a regular grocery store with 14 different jars of peanut butter has me reading  labels, considering size, relative economics, motives & lifestyles of my children..

 

They had hand disinfectant sprayer when you walked in and to use at check out.  Also wipes next to the carts. 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by thelerner

[Phantalor]

2 hours ago, thelerner said:

I won't disagree, but the strategy here is to slow down the 'slope' of the bell curve.  So hospitals get less overwhelmed.  This virus may be like an ocean surge against a dike, but making the dike a little higher and plugging some holes gives people (hospitals) time to prepare for the deluge.  In this case it means spreading it out so more hospital beds and preparations can be created.  Shared solutions can be thought of, seeing what works other places.  With a little time, effort, money and creativity we can expand the number of beds. 

 

So i will only speak of Germany here, as i cannot comment on other countries:

It will not work here, because:

1. the last 12 Years that i work now in the medical field (Oo never knew its been that long now) nothing was done to get hospitals hospitable 

2. Hospitals are completely understaffed, atm 1 nurse goes per around 10 patients ... ok 3 in ITC (also physicians have to take sometimes amphetamins to stay awake)

3. Things that could slow down the curve have been done approx. 30 days too late (they are in effect as of today)

4. Youngsters are egoistic and go out even thought they are not supposed to, they meet up to so called "Corona Party´s"

5. People have next to no knowledge what they are supposed to do, and why that is

6. Most information sources are to pay for, and most people wont use them

7. Technical equipment rather gets sold to other countries instead of being used here (source ... i develop them)

8. most physician have specialisatiion in ways that make money (cardiology, radiology etc.) but wont help people

9. most people are egoistic dimwits ... i saw People buy a whole cart full of toilet paper without any reason at all, only to buy as much as possible ..

 

that list can be furthered nearly infinitely

Only seeiing what i can see for Germany i am on rides side, let it be over, since all politicians are yeah dimwits with no knowledge in what they do. looking at our parliament its like giving a group of blind and deaf people a flying licence for passenger planes and setting them on the steering on a fully loaded one.

 

 

[rideforever]

Article about vaccines for Coronaviruses (they may provide only short term immunity - which could mean wavs of repeat infections if you try to flatten the curve?):
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00798-8

 

Another aspect is the protection of the older people in society at the cost to the young (who are unlikely to get it).

Apparently exam results this year will be based on mock exams, or assessed.

 

BoJo says that we may be through the worst in 3 months ... I assume that means he thinks herd immunity will be sufficient at that time? 

I suppose British families will be hitting the supermarkets this weekend to feed the kids at home.

Edited March 19, 2020 by rideforever

[liminal_luke]

5 minutes ago, rideforever said:

 

Another aspect is the protection of the older people in society at the cost to the young (who are unlikely to get it).

 

 

You keep on saying that young people are unlikely to get coronavirus but is this true?  My understanding is it´s not: young people can get coronavirus as easily as everybody else.  The difference is that kids are more likely to be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms.  They can get infected and can still infect others, but don´t get sick like older people are more likely to.

 

If I´m wrong and younger people truly don´t get infected, perhaps you could post a link to information supporting this?  I´d be interested.

[rideforever]

11 minutes ago, liminal_luke said:

If I´m wrong and younger people truly don´t get infected, perhaps you could post a link to information supporting this?  I´d be interested.

You are right ... I meant young people are unlikely to die from it.

 

Anyway, I wonder who will be monitoring the nuclear waste in F'ukushima, Chernobyl and Sellafield?  The way mankind lives, any small disaster could lead to extinction !!  
Have a nice day !

 

Will there be a Childbirth Boom in 9 months with all this ... "staying home" ??
I like to "stay home" quite a lot ... sometimes "all weekend" ... nudge nudge.
Summers almost here ... it's hot !

Edited March 19, 2020 by rideforever

[Phantalor]

21 minutes ago, rideforever said:

Article about vaccines for Coronaviruses (they may provide only short term immunity - which could mean wavs of repeat infections if you try to flatten the curve?):
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00798-8

Yay nature.com ... normally i see that site only from anon linked at facebook, and most of the free written articles are trash ...

But still that one is passable, as it has key points ...

1. there is no vaccine for corona type Virus

2. there is nothing else

 

As i said somewhere before, its hard as fuck to find some Viable attack point for a Test for Covid at all, and even harder to find a Vaccine

That Virus is known for around 4 Months now... we have normal infectious illnesses that are quite well researched where no vaccine is found up today.

But there is one point in that article that is quite interesting: They tested it on monkeys ... yay second vector ... possible mutation ... and here we have the Problem, why a Vaccine is nearly impossible, every single person thats spreads it may promt a mutation, so that any found Vaccine and or developed immunity will get weakened or unusable

 

Wait ... what did i want to say??

Anyways as i have a little knowledge in this field feel free to ask me some things

 

Edit: Fun Fact: Most Vaccines that dont lead to immunity are equine antibodys ... so to say they infect a horse and extract the antibodies to inject them for vaccination

Edited March 19, 2020 by Phantalor