nCov19 Development and Prevention Discussion Only

[rideforever]

Yeah ... well by the time mankind has decided what it wants to do ... nature will have done it already.

And yes it's true there are many diseases that have no vaccines even today, because they are very naughty.

But then again ... so are we.

[Starjumper]

1 hour ago, rideforever said:

You are right ... I meant young people are unlikely to die from it.

 

and yet they do, I read about a family of five where the mother and two children died of the virus.

[cheya]

This lecture by Dr. Klinghardt is amazing. Lots of info here! Highly recommended.

 

[ralis]

19 hours ago, Spotless said:

The big gun stores in the Bible belts have lines around the block - as they say “best to stock up for the cause”.

and it’s not just confined to the Bible Belt but it’s miles over the top in those areas.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/16/coronavirus-people-line-up-gun-stores-stock-up/5054436002/

 

Yes it is scary here in the USA 

 

Its the new white meat - evangelicals -  legions of headless swine with a pathological liar at the mount and a thousand hysterical foxes on their loudspeakers. They actively teach that Democrats are of the devil and end of times is their constant mantra - the sewer mind of dying religions is actively inculcated and rampant in many outlying areas of this country. These people could easily turn to oven building - they are entirely out of their minds.

 

 

 

Well Said!

 

The Orange Virus in charge said today that the Federal Government is not in the business of shipping and manufacturing medical supplies which in his insane opinion is up to the states. He really thinks that the Federal Government, and money that has been allotted for this crisis are all his!

 

The CDC today recommended that medical personnel should reuse face masks and if none are available, then use a bandana!

[ralis]

The Orange Virus invoked the Defense Production Act of 1950 and will only use it when necessary. His asshole Capitalist buddies must have picked up the phone and asked him to stop.

 

BTW he said he signed the law. WTF! Did he time travel back to 1950 and put his signature on it!

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act

[Starjumper]

As you can see, the streets of Vilcabamba are quiet, except for some ass walking on the main road without a mask on.

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Starjumper

[Earl Grey]

3 hours ago, Starjumper said:

As you can see, the streets of Vilcabamba are quiet, except for some ass waling on the main road without a mask on.

 

Check out that ass.

[GSmaster]

Its sad thing about spreading of Covid-19 it happens largely by the hands of public idiocy and carelessness.

 

So in Iran people dont believe in virus and they gather publicly and lick the iron doors of temples. Guess what happened in Iran?

 

In Buddhist community Dalai Lama claimed that mantra prevents coranavirus, and they gather publicly to chant mantra. They were lucky if nobody in the room had the virus when they did it.

 

In south korea, the most cases came from religious group holding massive group prayers, most of these people got sick in the end. 

 

The spread in China / America is much because of stupidity and ignorance of the leaders that thought virus is a hoax or nothing to worry about and delayed any response by weeks and months.

 

The virus is highly contagious any public gatherings = new cases. It would be best to avoid all public places and touching anything in public. Even if you dont have the virus.

 

But those who do have the virus and go outside to socialize, have fun and feel themselves under "divine protection" or believe virus is a made up conspiracy theory, are those who deal the most harm to society.

[Walker]

39 minutes ago, Earl Grey said:

Check out that ass.

 

You could forgive it for buying a whole lot of toilet paper. 

 

I am reminded of a couplet by Mr. West,

 

Nice as Bun-B when I met him at the Source awards. Girl, he had with him, ass coulda' won the horse awards...

[rideforever]

[Miffymog]

6 hours ago, GSmaster said:

Its sad thing about spreading of Covid-19 it happens largely by the hands of public idiocy and carelessness.

 

So in Iran people dont believe in virus and they gather publicly and lick the iron doors of temples. Guess what happened in Iran?

 

In Buddhist community Dalai Lama claimed that mantra prevents coranavirus, and they gather publicly to chant mantra. They were lucky if nobody in the room had the virus when they did it.

 

In south korea, the most cases came from religious group holding massive group prayers, most of these people got sick in the end. 

 

The spread in China / America is much because of stupidity and ignorance of the leaders that thought virus is a hoax or nothing to worry about and delayed any response by weeks and months.

 

The virus is highly contagious any public gatherings = new cases. It would be best to avoid all public places and touching anything in public. Even if you dont have the virus.

 

But those who do have the virus and go outside to socialize, have fun and feel themselves under "divine protection" or believe virus is a made up conspiracy theory, are those who deal the most harm to society.

 

 

I hear what you're saying, but can we keep hiding from it?

 

Aims of long term isolation

 

Keep burden off the health system.

Give time for antiviral treatments to improve.

Long, long term - vaccine.

 

We're being told in the UK that in 3 months the peak will be over, but the problem I have is...

 

Are we aiming to remove it with isolation so that it 'dies' out with out further spreading? Unlikely to achieve this long term.

Or do we want to allow a significant number to develop their own immunity? Which means we have to allow some natural transmission.

 

The question is basically - just how long are we going to go into isolation?

 

Isolation has been stepped up in the UK seriously - however, in my region we have 4 cases out of a 100,000 people.

We can't completely isolate it out of existence - so at the current rate of transmission, we will have to wait for months if not years for a significant number of people to catch it ... how long is isolation feasible  ... ?

 

I just don't know.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Miffymog

[GSmaster]

10 minutes ago, Miffymog said:

but can we keep hiding from it?

 

It needs to stop growing at exponential rate, nothing bad when it is taken under control and there are ~100 cases a day.

 

4 days ago it was 140.000 

now it is 250.000

 

see where this is going, we could be hitting million in just 2 weeks

 

The lethality rate was also misestimated by WHO from the beginning, in Italy its about 9% now.

[doc benway]

7 minutes ago, GSmaster said:

 

It needs to stop growing at exponential rate, nothing bad when it is taken under control and there are ~100 cases a day.

 

4 days ago it was 140.000 

now it is 250.000

 

see where this is going, we could be hitting million in just 2 weeks

 

The lethality rate was also misestimated by WHO from the beginning, in Italy its about 9% now.

 

Worldwide it is about a 4% mortality rate right now based on numbers from the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

Here is a nice and brief article about that.

The tricky part is separating the mortality of the disease with optimal care from the higher rates seen when the medical systems are overwhelmed as we're seeing in Italy. This is why social distancing is so critically important.

 

[Miffymog]

11 minutes ago, GSmaster said:

 

It needs to stop growing at exponential rate, nothing bad when it is taken under control and there are ~100 cases a day.

 

4 days ago it was 140.000 

now it is 250.000

 

see where this is going, we could be hitting million in just 2 weeks

 

The lethality rate was also misestimated by WHO from the beginning, in Italy its about 9% now.

 

And here is the issue - even 100 cases a day would require isolation of years.

 

EDIT TO PREVIOUS POST

 

After doing some more reading of current trends - I came to realise what GSmaster has just posted. The rate of spread is still very, very fast even with isolation.

[GSmaster]

2 minutes ago, Miffymog said:

100 cases a day would require isolation of years.

 

they are not isolating in china or south korea, they are using preventive measures, china is back to work now

 

testing - quarantine for those who are sick - good hygiene

 

the isolation happens when there is no control and everyone is going around getting sick and you dont know who is sick and who is not

Edited March 20, 2020 by GSmaster

[Miffymog]

There will be an awful lot to learn from all this.

 

Current total mortality rate in UK is roughly 11,000 per month.

 

Will this total be significantly increased ... or will there just be a relatively large portion of this due to Covid 19?

[Miffymog]

4 minutes ago, GSmaster said:

 

they are not isolating in china or south korea, they are using preventive measures, china is back to work now

 

testing - quarantine for those who are sick - good hygiene

 

the isolation happens when there is no control and everyone is going around getting sick and you dont know who is sick and who is not

 

hmmm - if this is the case - the the virus is shinning a light on the state of both social and health aspects of different societies.

[rideforever]

China declares victory ?   And for how long ?
Many EFL students are flying from the UK back home to China ... and they have been told they can return to the UK within 2 years to finish their English language training.  So as they are flying back and forwards, and China does not have herd immunity ... what's gonna happen then ?   Same in Taiwan ... what if someone from Italy flies over in November ... ?   Every large country has tens of thousands of cases.  Is it just going to vanish ?  Or is it coming back ?  Well, we'll see.

 

The whole stupidity is the ego.  He always dreams he is in control.  He does not understand nature.  He walks down the street has a big drama story in his head, where he is the hero ... and the whole time in his body are millions of cells who are making him work that he knows nothing about.  The story just carries on upstairs between the ears.

 

Meanwhile in the UK it is apparently just fine for all businesses to close, all kids to stop going to school ... and over at the Bank of England they are buying more ink so they can print these "pound notes".  Apparently this is all fine ... why did anyone bother working all these years !

 

Anyway Bullets over Broadway, that's my recommendation.

Edited March 20, 2020 by rideforever

[Miffymog]

15 minutes ago, steve said:

 

Worldwide it is about a 4% mortality rate right now based on numbers from the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

Here is a nice and brief article about that.

The tricky part is separating the mortality of the disease with optimal care from the higher rates seen when the medical systems are overwhelmed as we're seeing in Italy. This is why social distancing is so critically important.

 

 

Hmmm - I'm happy to go with it being a higher mortality rate than generally accepted. But the only way to really judge the voracity of that paper is to get really deep into all the data by yourself try looking at it from as many different angles as possible by varying the ways the calculations are performed.

 

If there are numerous ways of performing the calculation of mortality rate - and the vast majority all suggest the currently accepted method is low - then I'm with you.

 

But if there are a number of ways of working out a mortality rate - and they've happened to have chosen the one that puts it at it's highest, then there could be some subconscious bias in the approach.

 

But there is definitely a lot of 'hidden' information in all the data that could prove to be very informative - especially on government policy.

 

[Starjumper]

8 hours ago, Earl Grey said:

Check out that ass.

 

We had a nice ass staying here for awhile.

 

The wife didn't like it though, because when the ass brayed, even in the distance, the German Shepherd started howling.

 

There was supposed to be flight (empty) from Spain, landing in Guayaquil, to take some of their citizens home, but the locals broke into the airport and blocked the runway.

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Starjumper

[Apech]

8 hours ago, GSmaster said:

Its sad thing about spreading of Covid-19 it happens largely by the hands of public idiocy and carelessness.

 

So in Iran people dont believe in virus and they gather publicly and lick the iron doors of temples. Guess what happened in Iran?

 

In Buddhist community Dalai Lama claimed that mantra prevents coranavirus, and they gather publicly to chant mantra. They were lucky if nobody in the room had the virus when they did it.

 

In south korea, the most cases came from religious group holding massive group prayers, most of these people got sick in the end. 

 

The spread in China / America is much because of stupidity and ignorance of the leaders that thought virus is a hoax or nothing to worry about and delayed any response by weeks and months.

 

The virus is highly contagious any public gatherings = new cases. It would be best to avoid all public places and touching anything in public. Even if you dont have the virus.

 

But those who do have the virus and go outside to socialize, have fun and feel themselves under "divine protection" or believe virus is a made up conspiracy theory, are those who deal the most harm to society.

 

Fake news:

 

http://www.phayul.com/2020/03/17/42867/

 

"The widely circulated claim on social media and micro messaging platforms of the Tibetan leader His Holiness the Dalai Lama giving instructions for the prevention of the COVID-19 virus has been refuted by a senior official in his office as fake news."

[Apech]

1 hour ago, steve said:

 

Worldwide it is about a 4% mortality rate right now based on numbers from the Johns Hopkins dashboard.

Here is a nice and brief article about that.

The tricky part is separating the mortality of the disease with optimal care from the higher rates seen when the medical systems are overwhelmed as we're seeing in Italy. This is why social distancing is so critically important.

 

 

 

Steve,

 

Even that is based on dividing number of deaths by number of confirmed cases - and as we know there is a majority mild to symptomless cases this is an over estimate as many people will not be confirmed or not even know they have this disease - which is why people quote 1 - 2 % of actual cases.

[doc benway]

1 hour ago, Apech said:

 

 

Steve,

 

Even that is based on dividing number of deaths by number of confirmed cases - and as we know there is a majority mild to symptomless cases this is an over estimate as many people will not be confirmed or not even know they have this disease - which is why people quote 1 - 2 % of actual cases.

 

Agreed

The problem is that guessing at asymptomatic or unconfirmed case numbers is pure conjecture.

All we have to go on is available data and it is very weak and constantly changing.

[GSmaster]

4 hours ago, Apech said:

Fake news:

 

They might have realized he will be hit hard once there will be many deaths among mantra chanting followers.

 

Anyway there is a screenshot that shows people in masks in a very tight and massive public gathering with the Dalai Lama.

 

 

As many public and religious figures, trying to hype and profit during the world health crisis is not surprising.

 

Christian popes keep saying that faith in Jesus is a protection vs coronavirus.

 

 

[Miffymog]

Kicking off in the UK.

 

NOW - all pubs, clubs and restaurants must close.

All those unable to work due to this - will get their salary paid for by the government.

First hospital in London having to turn away patients from critical care units.

 

No complete lock down of towns and cities yet.

Domino effect of hospitals failing to cope on the way ...

No much talk yet of field hospitals and extra capacity being made / freed up so far