nCov19 Development and Prevention Discussion Only

[doc benway]

First case announced at my local hospital, shit’s about to get really real. It was only real last week...

[ralis]

Just now, steve said:

 

The “war president” who was afraid to serve. He is a fucking coward, a fucking liar, and a fucking narcissist. Everything always is, always was, and always will be about him and him alone.

 

He will destroy this country if he gets a chance! Just so he can remain the orange fuhrer in his two neuron brain which is all he cares about. He claims to have been tested, but I don't believe it.

[doc benway]

4 hours ago, rideforever said:

 

What are you talking about - the way this website works, is that new people arrive ... and then a gang of old timers and wanna be gurus turn up and take pot shots at them.

Civil ?  What are you talking about - this place is full of hatred.

Definitely truth to this, just look at weather magick. In the other hand, what is posted by the new folks and how it is presented is equally responsible. If you want to hang out here, you need to deal with it as it is. It’s not likely to change much... The only thing we can change is our responses, how we treat others regardless of what they post.

[ralis]

3 minutes ago, Spotless said:

What Shithole Trump claims is an ongoing sickminded maze and con. 
Mexico will build our wall and his daddy only loaned him 1 million dollars. How far we have come.

 

He is using this national emergency to send back all immigrants without considering the cost of having no laborers to pick fruit and vegetables in the Central Valley. Deporting persons requesting asylum is against US law, but he is a sociopathic freak!

[ralis]

Given Trump's penchant for sleeping with as many women as possible, I wonder if he has second stage syphilis.

[doc benway]

Not sure if this has been posted yet -

https://infection2020.com/?fbclid=IwAR1SOlDvfilNKxVCSpVunp1vikShwPrM0GG-L9Fd9yuIebii6WxjIczKPU8

[Spotless]

It has started to subside here - getting food is not nor has it ever been a problem for me anyway - San Francisco Bay Area.

 

Toilet Paper and disinfectants are starting to be ok.

 

Disinfectants are still generally emptied by mid morning if they are available at all.

 

Ive seen several people bringing in new freezers.

 

In general everybody is way more friendly - people seem to go out of their way to smile.

[thelerner]

5 minutes ago, steve said:

Not sure if this has been posted yet -

https://infection2020.com/?fbclid=IwAR1SOlDvfilNKxVCSpVunp1vikShwPrM0GG-L9Fd9yuIebii6WxjIczKPU8

That's sobering.  With test kits finally rolling out in number, we should be seeing a dramatic rise.   Many new cases, perhaps even more just not confirmed.  We are still climbing up the bell curve without the top in sight.

 

<great to hear its getting better in San Francisco. 

 

Here in Chicago, there's edginess and wariness but I also see the spirit of 'we're all in this together'.  The laughing at hoarders.  The battle between optimism, pessimism and realism rages on.

Edited March 19, 2020 by thelerner

[Spotless]

Definitely the “we are all in this together” attitude here!

 

A smile goes a long way - and a “thank you for working here today - I really appreciate it”

[doc benway]

4 minutes ago, Spotless said:

Definitely the “we are all in this together” attitude here!

 

A smile goes a long way - and a “thank you for working here today - I really appreciate it”

I’ve been thanking my employees daily.

They’re scared.

[Spotless]

The big gun stores in the Bible belts have lines around the block - as they say “best to stock up for the cause”.

and it’s not just confined to the Bible Belt but it’s miles over the top in those areas.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/16/coronavirus-people-line-up-gun-stores-stock-up/5054436002/

 

Yes it is scary here in the USA 

 

Its the new white meat - evangelicals -  legions of headless swine with a pathological liar at the mount and a thousand hysterical foxes on their loudspeakers. They actively teach that Democrats are of the devil and end of times is their constant mantra - the sewer mind of dying religions is actively inculcated and rampant in many outlying areas of this country. These people could easily turn to oven building - they are entirely out of their minds.

 

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Spotless

[Earl Grey]

1 hour ago, Spotless said:

It has started to subside here - getting food is not nor has it ever been a problem for me anyway - San Francisco Bay Area.

 

Toilet Paper and disinfectants are starting to be ok.

 

Disinfectants are still generally emptied by mid morning if they are available at all.

 

Ive seen several people bringing in new freezers.

 

In general everybody is way more friendly - people seem to go out of their way to smile.

 

Wish I could say the same here. 

 

13 minutes ago, Spotless said:

The big gun stores in the Bible belts have lines around the block - as they say “best to stock up for the cause”.

 

Yes it is scary here in the USA

 

Its the new white meat - pig - legions of headless swine with a pathological liar at the mount and a thousand hysterical foxes on their loudspeakers.

 

The energetic development of this nation (Philippines) is an overdeveloped root chakra and undeveloped for the rest--meaning that it's a serious survival instinct that takes precedent over decency and community. 

 

We did an analysis of multiple countries and this was what turned up. 

 

It shows: people are sneaking around to avoid mandatory testing, disregarding curfews to the point that lockdown was necessary, and following the same American right-wing propaganda downplaying it, then hoarding for the sake of hoarding so others don't have it. To put it another way: people actually thought the Thanos snap in Avengers was a great idea to deal with overpopulation. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Earl Grey

[Earl Grey]

2 hours ago, steve said:

Definitely truth to this, just look at weather magick. In the other hand, what is posted by the new folks and how it is presented is equally responsible. If you want to hang out here, you need to deal with it as it is. It’s not likely to change much... The only thing we can change is our responses, how we treat others regardless of what they post.

 

I already pointed out the reason why people jumped on Josh on page 4 of that thread and we all did a 180˚ when we realized he wasn't coming as an arrogant know-it-all the way a lot of newcomers are over here. If anything, it's not because people are new, it's because we're all sick of arrogant self-initiated know-it-alls posting nonsense about knowing more than people who actually have formal skills and understanding of concepts that are very specific complex systems. 

 

Josh thankfully had good humor and patience, which is why he won us over with his charming and sweet demeanor because he's a darling and lovely person. Now while I don't agree with a number of things he said and am on the same page as Walker in regards to what I don't follow with Josh's experience and current insights, he and everyone else are welcome here. 

 

What does happen in the case of newcomers like Heartbreak is that we initially tried to help him out, so no, we did not jump on him. It was after he started posting nonsense and he refused to listen to people while he still posts things like Asian female porn star aspirants as Vajra Fist found through a reverse image search and calling them saints or saying "white and black and all western women are easy", we responded in kind because it is not only dangerous for him, but is diminishing the value of the site. 

 

Now while this point I have responded to digresses from the spirit of this thread and what we're focused on, I will still try to tie this into the focus of this thread: everyone is going to be more uptight being locked in and online a lot more: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/18/815585991/life-in-lockdown-from-shock-to-panic-to-acceptance. So I fully expect more arguments on this forum, and I actually encourage that because we're getting a form of catharsis and expression while we can.

 

We could try to be nicer and listen to people who know what they're doing too...but we also shouldn't post misinformation and outright stupid crap either. 

[GSmaster]

 

Edited March 19, 2020 by GSmaster

[gendao]

On the good news, SARS-CoV-2 actually could/should significantly reduce R0 as Spring & Summer approach.

Quote

New study says 'high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce' spread of COVID-19

A transmission electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 virus particles, isolated from a patient. The image was captured and color-enhanced at the NIAID Integrated Research Facility in Fort Detrick, Maryland. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19. (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH)

A team of researchers unveiled the results of a new study last week that looked at how temperature and humidity may affect the transmission of COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus.

According to the researchers' findings, "High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19." An increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus's transmission, according to the data analyzed by the researchers.

The study is the latest in a limited but growing body of research, not all of which has been peer-reviewed, that examines the effect of weather on the spread of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, which causes the COVID-19 illness.

The researchers studied 100 different Chinese cities that each had more than 40 cases of COVID-19 from Jan. 21 to 23. According to AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor and Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell, the decision to study transmission on those dates was critical because that time period was before China intervened on Jan. 24 to stop the spread of the virus. Analyzing that timeframe allowed researchers to observe the natural spread of the virus before public health measures, which have since helped reduce the spread drastically in China, were implemented.

That step was one of several sound methods taken by authors Jingyuan Wang, Kai Feng, Weifeng Lv of Beihang University, and Ke Tang from Tsinghua University, according to Ferrell. He also commended the authors' accounting for GDP per capita, which normalized the differences in health care facilities, and the normalizations for population density.

The paper showed that the direct impacts of air temperatures and humidity levels could be seen plainly in the severity of outbreaks during the earlier stages of the virus spread.
"In the early dates of the outbreaks, countries with relatively lower air temperature and lower humidity (e.g. Korea, Japan and Iran) saw severe outbreaks than warmer and more humid countries (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) do," the researchers wrote.

"Considering the natural log of the average number of cases per day from February 8 to 29 as a rough measure of the severity of the COVID-19 outbreaks," the researchers continued, "we show that the severity is negatively related to temperature and relative humidity using 14 countries with more than 20 new cases during this period."

Using the value R to represent the transmission, the paper also found that cities in northern China, where temperatures and relative humidity were lower, had larger transmission values than cities along the country's southeast coast.

The scientists' findings align with what some experts have suspected about weather's impact, including Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls, who told AccuWeather that research on a lab-grown copy of SARS-CoV-2, "in cold environments, there is longer virus survival than warm ones."

Other infectious disease experts have voiced skepticism that warmer weather will help curb the spread of COVID-19. Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said earlier this month that warm weather will "probably not" slow down the spread, at least not significantly.

When contacted by AccuWeather this week, Lipsitch said in an email that he had nothing to add to his earlier analysis.

In applying the paper's findings to the forecast temperatures and humidity, the authors concluded that the arrival of summer and rainy seasons in the Northern Hemisphere can "effectively reduce the transmission of COVID-19," while the risk for the continued spread of the illness will remain in some countries in the Southern Hemisphere.

The authors even added that normal summer temperatures and relative humidity in Tokyo suggest that the transmission would be significantly reduced in time for the 2020 Summer Olympics, currently scheduled to be kick off on July 24. According to their findings, by July, Tokyo's "estimated R value decreases from 1.914 to 0.992, a 48% drop!" The International Olympic Committee, even as the crisis has escalated in recent days, remained steadfast this week that the games will go on as planned this summer.

Some experts are also pointing to the increased amount of UV rays from the sun the Northern Hemisphere will be subject to this time of year as a factor that could slow the virus.

"The sun angle changes significantly from the equinox to the solstice," AccuWeather meteorologist and Astronomy blogger Dave Samuhel explained. "That means a significant additional amount of solar radiation, or insolation, reaches the ground."

UV light has been proven to kill other strains from the coronavirus family, like SARS and MERS, but there isn't research yet showing the same is true for SARS-CoV-2.

Ferrell pointed out one key weakness in the study, which is the authors used temperature and relative humidity from 2019. Typically, meteorologists will use a broader data range, such as the 30-year normals. But Ferrell said in this case, a long-range weather forecast could be even more helpful than historical data.

Temperatures across much of the continental U.S. from March to May will be higher in 2020, AccuWeather meteorologists predict.

Projected temperature increases over the next few months are expected to align favorably for U.S. residents if the findings of the published paper prove true. With much of the U.S. forecast to see higher-than-normal temperatures in March and April, according to AccuWeather meteorologists, there is a chance that the virus could eventually "burn itself out," as Nicholls first suggested during a private conference call in early February.

"Although it will also, of course, depend on other factors like each country's place on 'the curve' of cases and the success of their response, Ferrell said, adding that an outbreak "could also re-emerge in the fall, as past epidemics have."

"The good news would seem to be: At least the weather is not working against us for a few months," Ferrell said.

If such temperature increases do occur, the paper's R value findings suggest that the U.S. will see a far lower transmission rate by the summer than the country is currently seeing in March. Early in March, the number of U.S. confirmed cases tallied in the dozens. By March 18, thanks to a notable increase in testing, that number had soared past 7,300.

However, as the papers' authors, Nicholls, Ferrell, and a host of other health experts have noted, there are many factors that could influence the transmission of COVID-19, including public health policies, like social distancing, that have been enforced and the population's ability to carry those methods out. Even the virus' propensity for surviving on surfaces could be a complicating factor.

While the weather may not be the ultimate factor in how devastating the pandemic becomes, researchers may now have a new tool to use in piecing together the puzzle.

"The transmission of viruses can be affected by a number of factors, including climate conditions (such as temperature and humidity), population density and medical care quality," the researchers said. "Therefore, understanding the relationship between weather and the transmission of COVID-19 is key to forecast the intensity and end time of this epidemic."

Quote

There was a study showing that the Coronavirus became dormant as the air temperature reached 86 degrees. Thus, at that temperature, transmission of the virus requires direct or near direct contact.

Edited March 19, 2020 by gendao

[C T]

In the news now that China have conducted clinical trials with Japanese drug Avigan with promising success. 

[Phantalor]

11 hours ago, Earl Grey said:

81. THE SHEWING-FORTH OF SIMPLICITY
True speech is not elegant; elaborate speech is not truth. Those who
know do not argue; the argumentative are without knowledge. Those who
have assimilated are not learned; those who are gross with learning have
not assimilated.

The Wise Man doth not hoard. The more he giveth, the more he hath; the
more he watereth, the more is he watered himself.

The Tao of Heaven is like an Arrow, yet it woundeth not; and the Wise
Man, in all his Works, maketh no contention.

 

 

For the whole discussion ... that is truly eye opening ... also sorry to say, @Earl Grey please read what you cited, in the eyes of the external watcher going by this citation you are also belonging to the "not knowing" ... no offense

 

Also purely from the biological point ride is right, how it was handled the last two weeks they may have very well let it go without any measures at all.

 

The main problem is the incubation time, the rise you see now are the people infected 2 weeks ago, as there are only true consequences by govmnt the approx. last 4 days, so you will not see a change in infection rate in the next 2 Weeks. WHich will promt gvmnt to go to more extreme measures, which is the true unsettling thing

Edited March 19, 2020 by Phantalor

[rideforever]

10 hours ago, Apech said:

they get infected and can be infectious without symptoms.

 

So you think they should close the schools and be looked after by their grandparents who they will infect and kill?

Children have almost 0% chance of dying if they get.
Why close the schools ... how much pressure do you want to put on the country ?
Not only are businesses going to lay off people and go bankrupt ... but now parents can't go to work because they have to look after the kids, or the kids stay with the grandparents which exposes the grandparents.

Where is the logic ?

It's going to be havoc after Friday.

The country is going to go into massive debt.

[Earl Grey]

6 minutes ago, Phantalor said:

 

For the whole discussion ... that is truly eye opening ... also sorry to say, @Earl Grey please read what you cited, in the eyes of the external watcher going by this citation you are also belonging to the "not knowing" ... no offense

 

Also purely from the biological point ride is right, how it was handled the last two weeks they may have very well let it go without any measures at all.

 

The main problem is the incubation time, the rise you see now are the people infected 2 weeks ago, as there are only true consequences by govmnt the approx. last 4 days, so you will not see a change in infection rate in the next 2 Weeks. WHich will promt gvmnt to go to more extreme measures, which is the true unsettling thing

I have no problems being a “not knower” because it gives me room to learn and challenge what I don’t know and what I do know that isn’t true with certainty that is dangerous.

 

As for my internal skills I’m comfortable with that, as for watching what goes on in this forum and calling out some absurd things—doesn’t bother me one bit, as someone showed me your comment and said the opposite as well. 
 

In the words of a wise man, wrong, right, I will call a fool a fool and tell him that every time I see him when I am shaving each morning.

[Phantalor]

6 minutes ago, Earl Grey said:

In the words of a wise man, wrong, right, I will call a fool a fool and tell him that every time I see him when I am shaving each morning.

And thus you are making someone the fool ... someone once said, "people tend to become what others or they themselves call them", and thats why i try not to shave

ANyways there was no offense meant, i was just stating what i watched  

i Mean im an obnoxious "not knower" as well, as i jumped onto the bandwagon and commented on it

[Earl Grey]

Just now, Phantalor said:

And thus you are making someone the fool ... someone once said, "people tend to become what others or they themselves call them", and thats why i try not to shave

ANyways there was no offense meant, i was just stating what i watched  

i Mean im an obnoxious "not knower" as well, as i jumped onto the bandwagon and commented on it

No offense taken at all.  

[Apech]

1 hour ago, rideforever said:

 

So you think they should close the schools and be looked after by their grandparents who they will infect and kill?

Children have almost 0% chance of dying if they get.
Why close the schools ... how much pressure do you want to put on the country ?
Not only are businesses going to lay off people and go bankrupt ... but now parents can't go to work because they have to look after the kids, or the kids stay with the grandparents which exposes the grandparents.

Where is the logic ?

It's going to be havoc after Friday.

The country is going to go into massive debt.

 

There's a difference between what is factually correct about the spread of the disease and what I think social policy should be.  Personally I think that families who can look after their kids at home should do so - but that schools should stay open for the children of essential health care workers and so on.

 

Are you suggesting things should just go on as normal?

[rideforever]

Funny story :

 

I was in the cafe yesterday morning, and it happens to have a Sainsburys supermarket opposite it.  Anyway I was sitting there drinking my flat white when all the customers and staff started staring out the window and then rushed out to the supermarket ... they had seen some loo rolls being delivered !!!  Anyway I joined them and scored a 9er pack of loo rolls, to go with my stash.

This morning the word on the street is that cafes will be closed from this weekend and the army may arrive to enforce a curfew.

 

On the BBC it says that school closures are not to protect children as they are not at risk !!!!   So what's it for ?
I believe they recognize that they cannot stop nature, but want to minimise overload on the NHS ... somehow destroying jobs and businesses and putting the country in huge debt is all to be sacrificed on the alter of the NHS, queue violin music.

 

Anyway, a farmer who has seen his crops destroyed from weeds and suffered the consequences of it ... he will have learned good and will be prepared to take real action if it happens again.  In today's mental world, people don't have those kind of elearning xperiences so, they end up (a) trying to look busy (b) talking about caring for people endlessly (c) praying that science is gonna save them (d) disrupting everything as much as possible so that everyone knows they tried. 

 

Why do they keep changing the clocks backwards and forwards every year ... it is simply the vanity of the ego who imagines he can do it better than nature.

 

From the 1918 virus then went around the world ... what lessons of action can be learnt?  Very few, nobody knows exactly what happened and why.  Nobody can make any conclusions based on it.  It came, it killed, it left.

 

Vaccines : giving such blanket treatments to large sections of society after a few months testing ... is suicidal.

[Apech]

3 minutes ago, rideforever said:

Funny story :

 

I was in the cafe yesterday morning, and it happens to have a Sainsburys supermarket opposite it.  Anyway I was sitting there drinking my flat white when all the customers and staff started staring out the window and then rushed out to the supermarket ... they had seen some loo rolls being delivered !!!  Anyway I joined them and scored a 9er pack of loo rolls, to go with my stash.

This morning the word on the street is that cafes will be closed from this weekend and the army may arrive to enforce a curfew.

 

On the BBC it says that school closures are not to protect children as they are not at risk !!!!   So what's it for ?
I believe they recognize that they cannot stop nature, but want to minimise overload on the NHS ... somehow destroying jobs and businesses and putting the country in huge debt is all to be sacrificed on the alter of the NHS, queue violin music.

 

Anyway, a farmer who has seen his crops destroyed from weeds and suffered the consequences of it ... he will have learned good and will be prepared to take real action if it happens again.  In today's mental world, people don't have those kind of elearning xperiences so, they end up (a) trying to look busy (b) talking about caring for people endlessly (c) praying that science is gonna save them (d) disrupting everything as much as possible so that everyone knows they tried. 

 

Why do they keep changing the clocks backwards and forwards every year ... it is simply the vanity of the ego who imagines he can do it better than nature.

 

From the 1918 virus then went around the world ... what lessons of action can be learnt?  Very few, nobody knows exactly what happened and why.  Nobody can make any conclusions based on it.  It came, it killed, it left.

 

Vaccines : giving such blanket treatments to large sections of society after a few months testing ... is suicidal.

 

I'm hoping this is a parody.

[Phantalor]

58 minutes ago, Apech said:

'm hoping this is a parody.

Hmm,

and why is that so?

If i look at Germany ... sadly it looks like he writes the truth ... as the health system is so broken, that it hardly can cope with the normal occuring sicknesses, not to speak with something on pandemic level. And sadly or Politicians are total jackasses that don´t know anything about what they do, seeing as our health ministrys head is an idiot that has no competence in this regard as he learned at a bank.

As for toilet paper ... luckily i have a sink directly beside the toilet.

And looking at Taiwan @rideforever has some point, as they learned with SARS and now are putting it to practice, and they are besides Japan the countries that afaik coped best with the Virus up to date.