Shelves empty very soon - total meltdown

[Smile]

Well, I've been talking about it for a long time with my friends, and the article below paints a scary picture of what is going to happen very soon. No food to buy.

==========================================

Dr. James P. Wickstrom, D. Litt.

 

Subject: Baltic Dry Index

(Shipping situation that effects all of us)

 

Follow-up letter on BDI Video

 

An Email Received On the Baltic Dry Index Video:

 

I've been discussing the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) with everyone I can for months now. I started following it in June of 2008. It's not a traded index so no one profits from the index itself, which makes it virtually manipulation proof. It is what it is and that doesn't bode well for any of us.

 

OK, we have 26 shipping routes around the world that the BDI looks at. Shipping stocks are slaves to the BDI. Capesize Ships (over 100,000 tons) make up only 10% of the World Fleet but move 62% of Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 35/40, China 20, Brazil 40-50, S. Africa 1-7). Panamax Ships (60,000-80,000 tons) make up 19% of the world fleet and move 20% of the Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 40-60, China 20-35, Brazil 3-12, S Africa 0-1). There is a third and fourth ship size but they are quite small and they aren't moving either.

 

If we can use the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a guide for the next 12 months of product delivery and food availability in the stores we shop in then the BDI says shelves will be virtually empty of almost every product we use each and every day.

 

If the BDI is wrong it will be an historic first. The BDI is used by bankers, financial experts, brokers, traders and everyone in high-end finance to assess the global financial condition and the availability of products worldwide.

 

The BDI has dropped 94% in a short few weeks which means raw materials, grains, ores, steel, iron, cement and all imported products for food manufacturing and product manufacturing even though we actually do very little of that here in the US. We do make bread and other products that require grains, like cereals. We import clothing, gasoline, various fuels and, well, just about everything these days and the BDI says global shipping has shut down. NOTHING is moving. Because this spells disaster for a country that produces little and imports everything I have been intently blogging about the subject and asking people to view a short video I have posted (8 minutes) on:

 

http://thegreendragon.ning.com/video/vital-critical-you-must

 

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an indicator of how much product is actually out for delivery throughout the world. It cannot be cheated or manipulated because it deals with actual products that are either actively being shipped, or are on docks awaiting to be shipped as Freight On Board (FOB). As the chart below proves, back in June, 2008 the BDI stood at a reasonably healthy 11,600. As of today, the BDI has plummeted to 791. That's about a 94% drop in goods actually being shipped worldwide.

 

This portends unprecedented disaster around the world, especially as it relates to food. Products are simply not being shipped. They aren't being shipped because there aren't any orders for them. This will translate into massive, unprecedented unemployment worldwide and, as things get worse, massive food shortages.

 

I have urgently asked each of you to stock up on dry foods like 50 lb bags of rice, 50 lb bags of oatmeal, beans, powdered milk, canned foods, canned vegetables and such to assure your family will

have enough to eat when the world economy totally collapses. Many of you laughed me off as some sort of kook for making those suggestions, with some of you going so far as to call me "chicken little, the sky is falling." Well, it appears I'm having the last laugh.

 

I correctly forecast the economic meltdown which took place in September. For over a year prior to that meltdown, I warned it was coming and, in March of 2008, I actually pinpointed the month the meltdown would take place, warning you it would happen in September. It did. Now I am once again warning you about food shortages because the facts are irrefutable. The BDI proves that goods are not being shipped.

 

There has been a 94% reduction in shipped goods since June of this year and it is only going to get worse. If you do not have food stored up for your family, you will starve to death. If you do not own guns and ammunition, any food you DO have will be stolen by roving bands of savages who are trying not to starve to death.

 

The social breakdown that is coming is unparalleled in modern history. We are going to suffer on an order of magnitude greater than folks suffered during the Great Depression. Please, I urge you, prepare. There are only a few precious months left before it all goes to hell. So, as I said, I have been e-mailing everyone I can think of and here's a very interesting email I received back from a friend tonight. He's a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver and designs and builds large power plants for a living.

 

 

Hi,

 

Quite the contrary, I'm well acquainted with the Baltic Dry Index. My brother is a mid-to high-level executive with a logistics/cargo firm. His company (as well as all other shipping companies) have seen huge dives in the amount of business they do. The main point that many people do not understand is that without trade between states and nations no one prospers!

 

It's always tempting to say "screw the third world countries and screw the Chinese with all the crap they send over here! Let's shut our borders down and not import anything!" But the reality is that no country that practices such Draconian protectionist policies ever lasts very long. So with that, it is of huge concern to you, me, and everyone else "in the know" when the BDI drops so drastically! The whole world is truly tied at the hip, as the saying goes!

 

Brother, I'm on board with you 100%! I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to send me the link (which I will watch by this weekend). You hit the nail on the head in that 98% of the people in this country have not one clue what the BDI is, what it indicates; nothing!

 

The truly sad thing, to me at least, is that the masses of "useful idiots" (as Lenin called them) have no clue what is going on around them, yet they so eagerly and boisterously vote! I'm afraid that this country is going to have to go through a considerable amount of pain before the uneducated, ignorant (and I won't say stupid because they simply have not been taught) masses "get it".

 

I am a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver. I design and build large power plants for a living. Without giving the whole story of my career, believe me when I say that in the next few years this country will see rolling blackouts (and that's not taking into account another terrorist attack on our country!). If the people in this country knew what I know first-hand about our power grid and the condition of our (very old!) power plants in this country, they would probably crap themselves in fear!

 

The only surprise to me is that the blackouts didn't happen this past summer, but that was due to 2008 being a cooler year than expected. The bottom line is, our power grid (and for that matter, much of the infrastructure in this country) is tapped out and actually older than its expected life. And yet, our wonderful federal government, elected by us "useful idiots", continues to spend, spend, spend like drunken sailors. Why? Well, because that's what we've "always" done! It sickens me!

 

Take a look at www.chrismartenson.com

 

This fellow has his head screwed on straight!

 

Take it from me, I build power plants for a living. But I still have a basement full of not just guns, ammo, and food, but of fuel! White gas, propane bottle's, even sterno & alcohol type cans. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already, STOCK UP on a fuel supply, at least so that you can cook and have some modest heat if you don't have a fireplace! Consider what you have and ask yourself if you have enough to get you through a month, 2 months? Three? God Bless Sam's Club for carrying Coleman fuel and propane and such...

 

I'll share more of my knowledge (limited though it is) with you later on.

 

Peace be with you brother. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst!

 

 

XXXXXXX

 

Believe or don't, the choice is yours but at the very least I suggest you start doing the research on this subject or you may be starving in a few short months.

Edited February 7, 2009 by Smile

[Yoda]

Welcome to the Thunderdome!!!!!

 

 

 

Another zinger from Frown!!!

 

 

So the wiki says that the BDI is "...an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea." The wiki also said that the BDI is subject to huge extremes in that the supply of big ships is completely inelastic.

 

In my opinion, the world market has been way overheated and could use a little breather.

 

But if my internet goes out, you'll find me on the road warrior circuit!

 

Your pal,

Yoda

[gendao]

Nonsense. The Messiah has already returned now. WE ARE ALL SAVED!!! Halle-f'n-lujahhhhhh!!

BTW, a little tip for my TB bros - if you want to stock up on any canned fish - I recommend sardines* over tuna. Tuna is high in mercury and also costs more. Not to mention can kill dolphins in collateral damage. Whereas sardines are high in omega-3s, CoQ10, calcium, anti-aging nucleotides and more...

 

Logically, it's a win-win no-brainer - but culturally, people have chosen tuna as their fav for some reason...

 

*PS - I prefer the ones in tomato/chili sauce.

Edited February 7, 2009 by vortex

[froggie]

BTW, a little tip for my TB bros - if you want to stock up on any canned fish - I recommend sardines* over tuna. Tuna is high in mercury and also costs more. Not to mention can kill dolphins in collateral damage. Whereas sardines are high in omega-3s, CoQ10, calcium, anti-aging nucleotides and more...

 

Logically, it's a win-win no-brainer - but culturally, people have chosen tuna as their fav for some reason...

 

*PS - I prefer the ones in tomato/chili sauce.

 

Do you use filets or whole (whitout head)?

A lot of canned sardines sold are whole without head, i think if they were canned sardine filets (in any way, in brine, in oil, in sauce) a lot more people would buy them.

Anyway, that's what i think.

[zanshin]

The shippers aren't necessarily more distressed than anything else, yes more volatile, back up 70% off lows, nice move 2/4 report follows. I did buy a 30lb. bag of rice today, not because of that

 

 

12:30 TALKX Floor Talk: Dry bulk stocks surging after big gain in

Baltic Dry Index

 

With dry bulk shippers representing the strongest group in the

market today after a big jump in the Baltic Dry Index (EGLE, EXM,

OCNF, GNK, DRYS, DSX all up 10%+), we wanted to provide color on the

price action along with some background with what has been happening

in the industry... The entire drybulk sector has virtually collapsed

over the last year in tandem with plunging charter rates as the

global economy weakened materially as the credit crisis spread. The

collapse in the Baltic Dry Index (down over 90% from 2007 highs to

December lows) across all vessel markets caused a decline in vessel

values which lead to collapsing stock prices. The credit market

meltdown has played a significant role in the fallout. Trade finance

plays a vital function in the shipping industry and the inability for

shippers to garner letters of credit significantly hampered activity.

This area continues to show signs of improvement. Today the stocks

are all showing large moves following the biggest gain in the Baltic

Dry Index since at least 1985, according to Bloomberg.com. (The

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an index which measures the changes in

prices for shipping raw materials by sea). The Baltic Index has been

rising modestly off its lows for the past month, gaining more than

70% off its lows. Some of the reasons cited as the cause of the

recent upturn include the resumption of activity after the end of the

Chinese New Year holiday (most important to today's move); seasonal

demand; iron ore restocking by Chinese steelmakers. The fiscal

stimulus program, coupled with willing flowing capital (Chinese banks

have increased lending) is also playing a role. Stimulus funds will

likely flow towards infrastructure projects which will increase

incremental demand for iron ore and coal and ships for transport.

Higher rates will help to lift vessel values which have plunged

causing the entire industry to go into capital preservation mode,

eliminating dividends, selling off vessels, and canceling vessel

orders. Many still remain in breach of debt covenants however and

equity dilution remains a key risk. For instance, there also has been

noteworthy company-related news recently that has helped buoy some of

these stocks. DRYS, which was in danger of defaulting, reached a

reprieve yesterday as it announced that it reached an agreement with

one of its lenders to restructure two loans facilities. The stock

rose 25% in response to that. In addition, on 1/20 EXM announced that

it canceled its obligation to buy a Supramax vessel.

[mantis]

i await the end

 

[NeutralWire]

We are not heading for a road warrior future! It's absolutely true that power will be bad news. Instead of merely quaking in one's boots, one could do something.

 

Investigate the Transition Town movement, which gathers people together in local areas to prepare for a post-oil future. There are now well over a hundred Transition Towns in the world, most in the UK but including some in the US, Australia, and further afield. The process of initializing a sustainable future in your local area has been honed to a fine art. Is your area next?

 

Check it out:

 

http://transitiontowns.org/

 

They say:

 

It all starts off when a small collection of motivated individuals within a community come together with a shared concern: how can our community respond to the challenges, and opportunities, of Peak Oil and Climate Change?

 

They begin by forming an initiating group and then adopt the Transition Model with the intention of engaging a significant proportion of the people in their community to kick off a Transition Initiative.

 

You don't have to be ignorantly assuming chaos! The world is going to go on. Be amongst the people who are looking at solutions rather than screaming problems. You will be amazed what can be done.

 

And start reading the Archdruid!

 

http://www.thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com

 

John Michael Greer is not only head of a famous American Druid order, he also has written on the Kabbalah and he practices nei gung plus rare Yang form t'ai chi (so he told me). And for the last few years he has offered the most insightful work on peak oil and the upcoming energy and food shortages. Prepare for the deindustrial, ecotechnic future, concentrate on relearning crafts, start growing veggies and work out how to exist with less. He is the kind of guy any Tao Bum can relate to, and he has been researching this since the 70s.

 

Be informed not scared. And I don't need to tell you to redouble your practice efforts -- life tends to look after those who make a good faith attempt to look after it.

 

All best wishes,

 

~NeutralWire~

[rookie]

Nonsense. The Messiah has already returned now. WE ARE ALL SAVED!!! Halle-f'n-lujahhhhhh!!

 

 

 

har har har

that is so right on

I like sardines but livin on them, wow, not fun after a few days

hoep you guys are wrong....

[gendao]

Do you use filets or whole (whitout head)?

A lot of canned sardines sold are whole without head, i think if they were canned sardine filets (in any way, in brine, in oil, in sauce) a lot more people would buy them.

Anyway, that's what i think.

The ones I buy are just fillets, dunno if they even sell them with heads?

 

Anyhow, not saying they should serve as your dietary staple...just saying if you do stock up on some canned fish, I'd pick sardines over tuna. Just thought I'd pass on that small tip for anyone.

Edited February 8, 2009 by vortex

[Yoda]

Neutralwire... I love your reading list!!! I'll bring it with on my gyrocopter!!

[Gerard]

[Sunya]

my cousin has a degree in Finance/Economics and works in New York City, he looks at the Baltic Dry Index everyday so he is pretty informed, I sent him the video. he says the creator of the video is misinformed about Economics/Trade. here is the convo:

 

mik: he's basing his whole argument on the assumption that the BDI index can be used to forecast the next 12 months of food availablity

Stanny: no that's absurd

Stanny: there wil never be a shortage of food.. the only thing that can happen is price of food will go up

Stanny: but here's the thing

Stanny: the reason there's not a lot of shipping is b/c there WAS a lot of shipping.. we have a lot of products.. and no one is buying

Stanny: so there's no need to ship b/c we have too much supply

Stanny: once supply starts to run out, shipping will invarioably increase

Stanny: look at clothing stores

Stanny: they're all going out of business

Stanny: millions of clothing no one is buying, even at deep discounts. There's no need for JC Penny to order more clothes from china --- they can't even sell the clothes they have in stores currenlty

Stanny: look at the chart in the beginning of the video

Stanny: it's at about the same level as it is currently

Stanny: beginning of the chart is 2001

Stanny: it's teh same level as it is right now

Stanny: was there a food shortage in 2002? or 2003?

 

I trust my cousin on this sort of issue. the creator of the video means well, but is misinformed.

[Smile]

Good stuff. Thanks everyone for your comments, so much good info.

[Smile]

Try this: Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production

 

[freeform]

BDI has recently seen its biggest monthly growth - ever.

 

This has allowed it to recover, in part, the huge drop that happened last year.

 

Economic bubbles have grown and burst and recovered for hundreds of years - this is a 'natural' cycle.

 

Any paradigm shift will not be as a result of economic change, but would certainly be very very visible within the economy.

 

This turbulence is certainly a sign of changes occurring at a more fundamental level - paying attention to the signs might be handy - but they are only signs and shouldn't be taken too literally...

[Apech]

Try this: Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production

 

 

 

 

Funny that - every time I phone my friends in Portugal they tell me its raining.

[Spectrum]

Bunk Map.

[hyok]

Economic bubbles have grown and burst and recovered for hundreds of years - this is a 'natural' cycle.

 

Any paradigm shift will not be as a result of economic change, but would certainly be very very visible within the economy.

 

This turbulence is certainly a sign of changes occurring at a more fundamental level - paying attention to the signs might be handy - but they are only signs and shouldn't be taken too literally...

 

Bubbles form because of mal-investment by the public - meaning people mistakenly investing their money in the wrong assets. this occurs mainly because of two reasons - economic environmental factors, and misinformation brought about by greed and excessive optimism. historically the latter was the reason why bubbles occured - think gold rush, but the former (by using public human nature as a catalyst) is why modern economic bubbles have occurred.

 

Think back to the Dotcom bubble. Sure, people were optimistic and many worthless stocks were going nuts, but at the height of the boom it was the Federal Reserve that lowered margin limits to 10%, meaning certain investors meeting a $ amount could borrow against their capital with only 10% in cash necessary. This action propelled the dotcom boom to astronomical levels. When it burst, it took the equity market with it.

 

After the dotcom bust, money was leaving the equity markets and the Fed was prepared for it by lowering interest rates to near zero percent. People thought, "hey, it's time to buy a house and car! these interest rates are great!" then the housing bubble began... and burst, and took the real estate market with it.

 

During this time the super rich were playing with their toxic monopoly securities, of which 100% were worthless. This derivative ponzi scheme has now failed and has taken the credit market with it.

 

First equities, then housing, now credit.

[hyok]

The map seems more like a prediction than what actually is at the moment. I've read somewhere that the US is due for a major drought in the next couple of years, '10/'11. On top of that, apparently there are bigger weather super-cycles converging around the same time.

Edited February 11, 2009 by hyok

[NeutralWire]

There will certainly be increasing food shortages in the next few years, as well as fuel shortages. Those who want to live in a place where it won't matter so much, that link again:

 

http://www.transitiontowns.org/

 

... there's even one in Brixton now! For you UK city dwellers. I visited their launch, very interesting.

 

And don't forget the archdruid, the best analyst of what is happening:

 

http://www.thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com

 

... he practices nei gong you know. And he's an archdruid. And he has been tracking this since the seventies.

 

This is not going to be business as usual IMHO. There will be many confidence-shaking crises to come, for those relying on outmoded paradigms.

 

But it's not the end of the world! Just the gradual decline of technological civilization.

 

All best wishes,

 

~NeutralWire~

[CarsonZi]

You can also check out an interesting idea for the future here: http://www.thevenusproject.org . I don't necessarily agree with everything presented here, but it is great food for thought!

 

Love,

Carson

[NeutralWire]

It should be http://www.thevenusproject.com/ I think.

 

Technology plays a role in our future. People have got to be thinking about minimal sustainable resources harmonizing with ecosystems though.

 

We're heading into a dark age over the next couple of centuries, and what comes out will be more along those 'ecotechnic' lines as Greer says -- IMO no-one has any clue what it will be like yet, so the ability to improvise and come up with ideas that remain workable after oil starts diminishing more seriously is very important. So far as considerations like that go, the Venus Project is good.

 

Where I think it's not so good is that they are thinking of big, civic, government-funded things or industrial scale things. The illustrations look like Eisenhower is still president!

 

The more useful things will be on a smaller scale and less flashy. It's not that one mustn't think big, only that one must do small. This is my hunch. The days of thinking about dams across the Bering Strait are really behind us now. The West is really only a hair's breadth from being technically bankrupt, and personally, I don't look forward to a panic sell of US government paper.

 

But it's a very good time to think in a Taoist way. Don't worry about money.

 

All best wishes,

 

~NeutralWire~

Edited February 11, 2009 by NeutralWire

[NeutralWire]

[freeform]

good article, thanks.

[NeutralWire]

good article, thanks.

 

You're welcome! NW